Drafting in January feels like trying to predict a hurricane while standing in a gentle breeze. You think you know where the wind is blowing, but then a quarterback like Fernando Mendoza carries Indiana to a national title game and suddenly every "expert" board is upside down. If you’re sitting on a top-three pick in your 2026 rookie drafts, you’re probably already losing sleep over the Arch Manning dilemma.
Is he actually a franchise savior or just a really talented kid with the most expensive last name in sports?
Honestly, this dynasty superflex rookie mock draft cycle is weirder than most. Usually, we have a clear-cut "generational" guy by now—a Caleb Williams or a Saquon Barkley type. This year? It’s a messy mix of one-year wonders, high-pedigree RBs who finally woke up, and a wide receiver class that is deep but lacks a true "Alpha 1."
The Top Tier: Is Manning the Mandatory 1.01?
In a Superflex world, the answer is usually "yes, it's the QB." But Arch Manning’s path hasn't been a straight line. He struggled early, got benched in people's minds after the Georgia game, and then absolutely torched Arkansas and Vanderbilt to close out the year. He’s the first Texas player to ever throw, rush, and catch a touchdown in the same game. That’s the kind of ceiling that breaks fantasy leagues.
If he declares, he’s likely the 1.01 because of the insulation. Even if he struggles, his trade value will stay high for three years just because he’s a Manning.
However, if you want the "safest" player in the draft, look at Jeremiyah Love from Notre Dame. I’ve seen some mocks where he slides to 1.04, and that is just flat-out wrong. He’s 212 pounds of pure explosiveness. He’s the closest thing we have to a blue-chip prospect this year. While everyone else is arguing about QB mechanics, Love is just putting up 1,300-yard seasons and looking like a Day 1 NFL starter.
2026 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft: Round 1 Projection
Let's look at how a 12-team Superflex draft actually shakes out right now.
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1.01 Arch Manning, QB, Texas
The ceiling is just too high to pass up. In Superflex, you bet on the guy who could be a top-5 NFL draft pick. His November tape was elite, showing poise under pressure that he lacked in September.
1.02 Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
This is the "hype train" pick. He’s been compared to Joe Burrow for his ball placement. Leading Indiana to the Big Ten Championship changed his life. He adds enough rushing value to be a fantasy monster, even if he isn't a "scrambler" in the traditional sense.
1.03 Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
If you don't need a QB, this is your guy. He has the receiving profile that makes RBs "bulletproof" in PPR leagues. He’s basically a slightly more powerful version of Jahmyr Gibbs.
1.04 Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
He’s the most polarizing player in the class. Only 15 starts. That’s a red flag that usually leads to a Mitchell Trubisky-level bust. But his arm talent? It’s arguably the best in the country. He throws into windows that most college QBs won't even look at.
1.05 Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Betting on an Ohio State wide receiver is the closest thing to a "sure thing" in dynasty. He’s spent years playing behind guys like Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith (who isn't eligible until 2027), but Tate is a technician. He’s the high-floor pick. He will give you 10 years of WR2 production.
1.06 Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
Tyson is the home-run hitter. He’s had some injury scares—multiple surgeries already—but when he’s on the field, he’s electric. He finished 2024 with 10 touchdowns and a massive 34% market share of the ASU passing game.
1.07 Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
In TE-premium leagues, he goes higher. He’s 245 pounds but moves like a wide receiver. NFL GMs are obsessed with these "matchup nightmare" types. He’s the clear TE1 in a class that is actually pretty deep at the position.
1.08 Makai Lemon, WR, USC
He’s thin, which worries some scouts, but his YAC (yards after catch) ability is top-tier. If he lands in a creative offense like Miami or San Francisco, he’ll be a PPR machine.
1.09 Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State
A year ago, he was the 1.01. Then he regressed. Then he stayed in school. Now? He’s a "post-hype" sleeper. His athletic testing will be off the charts at the Combine. Don't let the 2024 slump blind you to the fact that he’s a 227-pound freak.
1.10 LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
The ultimate "swing for the fences" pick. He’s 242 pounds and runs like a linebacker. He’s raw—very raw—but if he hits, he’s Josh Allen. If he misses, he’s out of the league in three years.
1.11 Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
He’s 6’4” and 209 pounds. In a class full of smaller, shiftier receivers, Boston is the X-receiver that NFL teams still crave. He caught 9 touchdowns last year and showed he can win over the middle.
1.12 Jonah Coleman, RB, Washington
Stout, low center of gravity, and great hands. He’s the type of back who ends up getting 250 touches in the NFL because he doesn't make mistakes.
The Problem with the 2026 Class
Let’s be real for a second: the depth in this class is a bit sketchy. Once you get past the first 7 or 8 picks, the talent drop-off is noticeable. If you're holding a late 2026 first-round pick, you’re basically drafting a guy who would have been a mid-second-rounder in the 2025 class.
This is why you see so many managers trying to package their 2026 late firsts for established veterans or even 2027 picks. The 2027 class, headlined by Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams, is already being heralded as a "super class."
What People Get Wrong About Draft Capital
We tend to obsess over "talent" in January, but landing spot is 50% of the battle. If Ty Simpson goes to a team with a stable coaching staff and an aging starter (think Rams or Lions), his value skyrockets. If he goes to a dysfunctional mess, he’s a fade.
Also, keep an eye on the "one-hit wonder" tag. Guys like Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson are rising because of one great season. History is littered with QBs who had one good year, got drafted in the first round, and were working as insurance adjusters four years later.
Actionable Strategy for Your Rookie Draft
Stop worrying about the "consensus." This year, the consensus is going to change five times between now and May.
- Prioritize the "Blue Chips": Jeremiyah Love and Carnell Tate are the only two players I feel truly confident in as Day 1 contributors. If you can't get a top-tier QB, don't reach. Take the talent.
- Watch the Declarations: As of now, guys like Dante Moore and LaNorris Sellers are "flirting" with going back to school. If they do, this QB class becomes incredibly thin, and that 1.05 pick becomes way more valuable.
- The "Singleton Discount": If someone in your league is out on Nicholas Singleton because of his up-and-down college career, buy him. His physical profile is still elite, and he’s exactly the kind of player who thrives in a pro-style NFL system versus a college spread.
- TE Premium Strategy: If your league gives a 1.5x or 2.0x bonus for Tight Ends, Kenyon Sadiq is a top-5 pick. Period. Don't let him fall to the end of the first.
The best move right now is to hold your picks until the NFL Combine. Let the speed scores and the draft capital do the work for you. If someone is willing to overpay for a "Manning-hype" pick at 1.01, and you can get a package of 1.03 plus a 2027 first, you take that deal every single time.
Stability wins dynasty championships; hype just wins the draft.