Draft season is basically a giant game of "what have you done for me lately," and honestly, nobody knows that better than Drew Allar. If you followed the 2024 season, you saw a guy who looked like a surefire first-rounder. He was efficient. He had the "it" factor in the College Football Playoff against Boise State. People like Mel Kiper Jr. and Jordan Reid were putting him in their top-30 overall rankings.
Then came 2025.
Instead of jumping into a weak 2025 QB class—where he might have been a top-10 pick—Allar decided to return to State College. He wanted a title. He wanted to "finish business." But the 2025 season didn't go according to the script. A mid-season ankle injury and some rough outings against top-tier competition have made drew allar draft stock one of the most polarizing topics in the 2026 NFL Draft cycle.
The Physical Prototype vs. The On-Field Reality
Look at him. He’s 6’5” and 235 pounds. He looks like he was built in a lab to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Cleveland Browns. NFL scouts love the "toolsy" guys, and Allar has a cannon. Daniel Jeremiah has compared him to Joe Flacco and Kerry Collins—classic big-bodied passers who can drive the ball into tight windows without breaking a sweat.
But there’s a catch.
👉 See also: Why the 2025 NFL Draft Class is a Total Headache for Scouts
While his arm talent is elite, his processing speed is still a major question mark. One AFC West scout told ESPN that Allar "is not seeing it fast enough." In the modern NFL, if you can't process the field in 2.5 seconds, you’re basically a sitting duck. Allar has a habit of getting "sped up" when the pocket gets muddy. Instead of stepping into his throws, he drifts or tries to throw off his back foot.
- The Good: Prototypical size, elite velocity, and he rarely turns the ball over (1.19% career interception rate).
- The Bad: Inconsistent footwork and a lack of "swashbuckler" energy.
- The Ugly: The stats against top-10 teams are night and day compared to what he does against Kent State.
Why Drew Allar Draft Stock Took a Hit
It’s hard to ignore the "big game" narrative. It’s been the albatross around his neck for three years. In the 2024 Orange Bowl against Notre Dame, he struggled. In the 2025 matchup against Oregon, he went 14-of-25 for just 137 yards. That’s 5.5 yards per attempt. You aren't going to be a top-5 pick with those numbers.
Scouts are frustrated because they see the flashes. They see the 391-yard performance against USC in 2024. But then they see him hold the ball too long or miss a wide-open slant because he’s staring down his first read.
Then there’s the injury. He had ankle surgery in October 2025, which ended his season prematurely. This is a massive blow because he needed those late-season games to prove he could lead a comeback. Now, he’s heading into the draft process with "injury concerns" added to his "inconsistency" label.
✨ Don't miss: Liverpool FC Chelsea FC: Why This Grudge Match Still Hits Different
Where He Lands in 2026
Right now, the consensus on drew allar draft stock is all over the place. Some mocks still have him in the late first round because a team like the Saints or Raiders will always gamble on a 6'5" guy with a rocket arm. Others, like Dane Brugler, have noted that several GMs now view him as more of a third-round developmental project.
Think of him like Will Levis or even Drew Lock.
He’s a "traits" guy. Coaches believe they can fix his footwork. They think they can teach him to process faster. If he lands with a coach like Kevin O'Connell or Sean McVay, maybe he becomes a star. If he goes to a dysfunctional franchise that expects him to start Day 1, he might flame out like Christian Hackenberg did years ago.
Honestly, the risk-reward ratio is wild here. He has a 53:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his career, which is incredible. But if you watch the tape, some of those touchdowns are "scheme" throws to tight ends, and some of those "non-interceptions" were lucky breaks where a defender dropped the ball.
🔗 Read more: NFL Football Teams in Order: Why Most Fans Get the Hierarchy Wrong
Actionable Insights for Fans and Evaluators
If you are tracking his progress toward the 2026 NFL Draft, keep your eyes on these three things:
- The Medical Recheck: His ankle recovery is priority number one. If he can't move at the Combine, he’s going to slide into Day 3.
- The Senior Bowl (if he's healthy): Allar needs to show he can work with different receivers. Scouts want to see if he can handle a new playbook and throw with anticipation in a neutral environment.
- The Interviews: NFL teams are going to grill him on his "poise." They want to see a guy who is a "calm and collected leader," not someone who looks flustered when the play clock is winding down.
Allar is a classic case of a high ceiling and a low floor. He could be a Pro Bowler or he could be out of the league in four years. That’s just the reality of being a pocket passer in a dual-threat world.
To maximize his value, Allar needs to lean into his "pro-style" identity while showing he can at least scramble for a first down when the defense gives it to him. He’s not Lamar Jackson, but he can’t be a statue either. His best path forward is a team with a veteran starter where he can sit for a year, fix his mechanics, and learn the speed of the pro game without the pressure of being the savior of the franchise immediately.