The regular season is officially in the rearview mirror, and if you’ve been tracking the DraftKings NFL MVP odds, you know the last few weeks have been a total fever dream. Seriously. One Monday night, Matthew Stafford looks like he’s playing in a rainstorm with grease on his hands, and his odds crater. Then, he comes out in Week 18 and tosses four touchdowns like it’s a light Sunday afternoon workout, snatching the favorite status right back from Drake Maye.
It’s wild how fast the narrative shifts.
Heading into the Divisional Round, the board has basically narrowed down to a two-horse race. It's Stafford vs. Maye. The veteran vs. the kid. The stat monster vs. the "he changed the culture" candidate. If you’re looking at the board right now, DraftKings has Matthew Stafford sitting at -135, while the Patriots’ breakout star Drake Maye is right behind him at +105. Everyone else? Basically long-shots or "participation trophy" territory at this point. Trevor Lawrence is technically in third, but at +15000, the oddsmakers are essentially saying it would take a literal miracle for him to win.
The Stafford Renaissance: Numbers Don't Lie
Honestly, what Matthew Stafford did this year is kind of ridiculous for a guy at this stage of his career. He led the league in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46). That’s not just "good veteran" play; that’s "Peak 2013 Peyton Manning" territory. He did it with only eight interceptions, too.
When you look at the DraftKings NFL MVP odds movement, Stafford’s price has been a rollercoaster. He was the favorite, then he had that Week 17 stinker against the Falcons on Monday Night Football, and Maye leaped him. But that Week 18 clinic against the Cardinals—259 yards and four scores—sealed the deal for most voters.
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The argument for Stafford is simple:
He played a brutal schedule. Over half his games were against teams with winning records. He didn't just pad stats against bottom-feeders; he carved up playoff defenses. DraftKings bettors who jumped on him at plus-money after that Falcons game are feeling pretty smug right now.
Drake Maye and the "Turnaround" Narrative
Then there’s Drake Maye. If Stafford is the "stats" candidate, Maye is the "miracle worker." The Patriots were a basement dweller last year. Maye comes in, and suddenly they’re 14-3 with a division title. That counts for a lot with the AP voters.
Maye actually leads Stafford in some of the "nerd stats" that the modern MVP voter loves. We’re talking:
- EPA (Expected Points Added) per play
- Completion Percentage Above Expectation (CPOE)
- Total rushing yards (Maye had 450 to Stafford’s... well, basically zero)
But Maye’s odds slipped to +105 because his Week 18 was just "okay." He beat the Dolphins, but it wasn't a statement win. He threw for 191 yards and a touchdown while Stafford was lighting up the scoreboard in LA. In the MVP race, "boring but winning" usually loses to "spectacular and winning" when the stats are this far apart.
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The Longshots and the "What Ifs"
It's sorta sad looking at the rest of the board. Trevor Lawrence (+15000) finished the year on a massive heater, winning eight straight for the Jags. In any other year, a 4,000-yard season and a division title would have him in the thick of it. Not this year. The gap between the top two and the field is a canyon.
Caleb Williams is sitting at +25000, and last year's winner Josh Allen is way back at +30000. It’s a reminder of how quickly the league moves. Allen had a rough Week 10 against the Dolphins that basically ended his repeat hopes. Then you’ve got Sam Darnold at +40000. He led the Seahawks to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which is an insane story, but his raw numbers just don't touch Stafford's 46 touchdowns.
Why the 2026 Race Was Different
Most people expected Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson to be the faces of the DraftKings NFL MVP odds all season. But Mahomes went down with an ACL injury that robbed us of a classic finish, and Lamar’s Ravens struggled with consistency.
This opened the door for the "Veteran Peak" season. Historically, we see this every few years—think Matt Ryan in 2016 or Cam Newton in 2015. Stafford fits that mold perfectly. He’s the established guy finally putting up the "Holy Crap" numbers on a winning team.
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How to Handle the Current Market
If you're looking at these odds today, you have to decide what you value more: the historic statistical season or the rookie turnaround.
- Check the Consensus: While DraftKings has Stafford at -135, other books have seen him as short as -210. This tells you the "smart money" thinks the race is already over.
- Watch the Super Bowl MVP crossover: Interestingly, Stafford is also the favorite for Super Bowl MVP at +400. If you think the Rams are going to win it all, there might be better value in the Super Bowl market than the regular season MVP market at this point.
- Ignore the 2024 bias: Just because Josh Allen won last year doesn't mean the voters are looking for the same thing. Last year was about a dual-threat monster. This year, it’s about pure passing dominance.
The award is usually announced at the NFL Honors right before the Super Bowl. While the voting happens before the playoffs start, the regular season numbers are locked in. Unless there's a massive shift in how the AP voters feel about Maye's "value" over Stafford's "production," the guy in Los Angeles looks like he's going to be adding a very heavy trophy to his mantle soon.
Keep an eye on the injury reports and any late-breaking quotes from the 50 AP voters, but for now, the -135 price on Stafford is the most honest reflection of where this race stands.
Next Step: Compare the current regular season MVP prices with the Super Bowl MVP futures to see if you can hedge your position on Stafford or Maye before the Divisional Round kicks off.