You’ve probably seen him on CNBC or Bloomberg, leaning back with a calm, Dublin-inflected poise that feels almost out of place in the frantic world of high-frequency trading. Dr David Kelly JP Morgan's Chief Global Strategist, isn’t your typical Wall Street "permabull" or "doomsdayer." He’s more like the smart, slightly skeptical uncle who explains why the sky isn't falling, even when the ticker tape is screaming red.
Honestly, in a market where everyone is trying to sell you the "next big thing," David Kelly has built a massive following by doing the opposite. He makes the complex simple. He talks about "the tortoise of an economy"—slow, steady, and remarkably resilient.
If you’re trying to figure out where your money should actually go in 2026, understanding how Kelly thinks isn't just helpful. It’s basically essential.
Who Exactly Is Dr David Kelly?
He didn't start in a mahogany office in Manhattan. Born in Dublin as the son of a politician, Kelly was actually the youngest kid in his class. He’s been open about how that shaped him; entering University College Dublin at just 16 years old made him a bit of an outsider, a perspective he carried all the way to Michigan State for his PhD.
Before landing at JP Morgan Asset Management in 2008—right as the world’s financial plumbing was exploding—he put in time at Lehman Brothers and Putnam Investments. He’s seen the "Greeks" of the 2010s and the "Inflation Spikes" of the 2020s. He’s a CFA charterholder, but he talks like a guy who spends more time running marathons (which he does) than staring at spreadsheets.
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His real "superpower" is his weekly memo, Notes on the Week Ahead. Thousands of financial advisors treat it like scripture because it cuts through the noise.
What Dr David Kelly JP Morgan Says About 2026
We are currently navigating what Kelly and his team call "AI Lift and Economic Drift." It’s a weird spot. On one hand, you’ve got this massive technological engine (AI) pushing productivity. On the other, you’ve got the "drift"—slower labor growth because of aging populations and a shift toward economic nationalism.
Here’s the breakdown of his current outlook for the year:
The Fed and Interest Rates
Kelly has been calling for a "shallow easing path." Don't expect rates to drop back to zero; those days are gone. He expects the Fed to move slowly, maybe two or three cuts through 2026, aiming for a "neutral" rate that doesn't overheat things but doesn't choke the life out of the housing market either.
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The "Bubbly" Tech Question
Is AI a bubble? Kelly’s take is nuanced. He admits valuations look high, but he argues they are underpinned by "solid fundamentals." He’s moved from talking about tech adoption to tech deployment. Basically, it’s not just about who builds the AI anymore; it’s about which boring companies (like banks or manufacturers) use it to get more efficient.
International Markets vs. The US
For years, the US was the only game in town. Kelly is now banging the drum for international equities. Why? Because the earnings growth gap is narrowing. European and Japanese companies are becoming more shareholder-friendly, and with a potentially weaker dollar, those international gains look a lot juicier for US-based investors.
The Strategy: Beyond the 60/40 Portfolio
The old 60% stocks, 40% bonds rule took a beating a few years ago. Kelly isn't ready to bury it, but he says it needs an upgrade. He calls it the "60/40+."
In the 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, his team suggests that adding a 30% allocation to "alternatives"—think real estate, infrastructure, and private credit—can seriously boost returns while lowering risk. Specifically, he’s projecting a return of about 6.9% for this diversified mix over the next decade.
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He often uses the term "K-shaped recovery." It sounds fancy, but it basically means that while the wealthy are doing great because of rising stock prices, middle-income consumers are feeling the pinch of higher rents and food costs. As an investor, Kelly suggests you want to be positioned in "quality"—companies that have the "moat" to survive even if the consumer starts to pull back.
Why People Get Him Wrong
Some critics think David Kelly is too cautious. They wanted him to be more aggressive during the meme-stock craze or more panicked during the 2023 banking jitters. But Kelly’s philosophy is built on the long game.
He often compares investing to his passion for running. You don’t win a marathon by sprinting the first mile. You win by maintaining a pace you can actually sustain without your heart exploding. He’s big on "active management" right now. He thinks the era of just buying an S&P 500 index fund and waking up rich is getting harder. You need to pick the winners because the gap between the best and worst companies is widening.
Actionable Steps for Your Portfolio
If you’re following the Dr David Kelly JP Morgan playbook, here is how you should be looking at your screen tomorrow morning:
- Check Your International Exposure: Most Americans are way too "home-biased." Look at your allocation to Asian emerging markets or European value stocks. They are cheaper than US tech and have room to run.
- Don't Fear the Bond: With yields where they are in early 2026, bonds are actually providing "income" again. Kelly suggests embracing intermediate Treasuries and investment-grade credit.
- Look for the "AI Users": Stop obsessed with just the chipmakers. Look for the companies in healthcare or finance that are actually using technology to cut costs. That’s where the "productivity miracle" Kelly talks about will show up in earnings.
- Stay Realistic: Stop looking for 20% annual returns. Kelly’s long-term forecast is more in the 6-7% range for a balanced portfolio. It’s not "get rich quick," but it’s "stay rich forever."
The economy might feel like it's drifting, but according to Kelly, drift isn't death. It's just a different pace. If you can handle the slower speed, the 2026 market still has plenty of "silver linings" to offer.