Wait, can he actually do it? That’s basically the question everyone is asking right now. As we settle into 2026, the chatter about Donald Trump term limits has moved from fringe internet theories to actual, serious discussions in the halls of Congress and on late-night news. You’ve probably seen the headlines or the "Trump 2028" hats popping up at rallies. It’s a wild thought, but the legal reality is way more complicated than a simple "yes" or "no."
Honestly, the whole thing feels like a constitutional cliffhanger. On one hand, you have the 22nd Amendment, which seems pretty airtight. On the other, you have a President who has built a career on finding the "art of the deal" in places where others only see a brick wall.
The 22nd Amendment: The Giant Wall in the Room
If you want to understand why most experts say a third term is a total no-go, you have to look at the 22nd Amendment. It was ratified back in 1951, mostly because everyone was still a bit shook after Franklin D. Roosevelt won four elections in a row. Before FDR, there was this unwritten rule—started by George Washington—that two terms were plenty.
The text is actually pretty short. It says: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." Basically, if you’ve been elected twice, you’re done. Since Donald Trump won in 2016 and again in 2024, the math doesn’t look great for a 2028 run. It’s not just a suggestion; it’s the supreme law of the land. But—and there is always a "but" with constitutional law—people like Alan Dershowitz have been whispering in the President's ear about "methods" to stick around.
Last October, Trump himself told reporters on Air Force One, "I'm not allowed to run. It's too bad." But then, just a few months later at a rally in Las Vegas, he joked about serving "three or four times." Is he trolling? Maybe. But his critics aren't laughing.
The "One Weird Trick" Scenarios
So, how do you get around Donald Trump term limits without technically breaking the law? This is where things get sorta "House of Cards."
Legal scholars have debated a few loopholes for decades. They aren't exactly easy, but they exist on paper:
- The Vice President Shuffle: Some argue the 22nd Amendment only says you can't be elected President. It doesn't explicitly say you can't be elected Vice President and then... well, if the President resigns, you're back in the big chair. However, the 12th Amendment says no person "constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President." Most judges would likely see through this pretty fast.
- The Speaker of the House Route: The Speaker is third in line for the Presidency. Could a former two-term President become Speaker and then ascend if the President and VP are incapacitated? There’s no law against a former President being Speaker. It's a long shot, but in today's political climate, nothing feels impossible.
- The "Selection" vs. "Election" Theory: This is the one Dershowitz reportedly mentioned in his latest book. The idea is that if the Electoral College fails to hit 270 votes, the House of Representatives "selects" the President. Since the 22nd Amendment uses the word "elected," some argue a House "selection" is a different animal.
It sounds like a stretch because it is. Bruce Peabody and Scott Gant, two constitutional experts who have written extensively on this, have noted that while the language has tiny gaps, the intent of the amendment is to stop exactly this kind of thing from happening.
California is Already Fighting Back
While the White House drops hints, the states aren't just sitting around. Just this week, on January 13, 2026, a new bill was introduced in the California Legislature by Senator Tom Umberg. It’s being called the "No Kings" bill.
The goal? To give the California Secretary of State the power to kick anyone off the ballot who isn't constitutionally eligible. Specifically, it targets any attempt to circumvent Donald Trump term limits.
"No president or candidate is above the Constitution, period," Umberg told the press. It’s a preemptive strike. If Trump tries to file for 2028, California wants to make sure his name never even touches the paper. This is likely the start of a massive legal war between blue states and the federal government that will end up at the Supreme Court.
Why This Matters Right Now
You might think, "Why are we talking about 2028 when it's only 2026?"
Because it changes how the government functions today. When a President is a "lame duck"—meaning they can't run again—they usually lose a lot of power. People stop listening to them because they know the guy is leaving in a few years. By keeping the idea of a third term alive, Trump avoids becoming a lame duck. He keeps his allies loyal and his enemies on their toes.
Also, there's the money. Trump mentioned to GOP lawmakers recently that he has raised a ton of cash that he "assumes" he can't use for himself if he doesn't run. That's a huge incentive to find a loophole.
Real-World Obstacles
Let's get real for a second. Even if you found a legal loophole, you'd need:
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- A Supreme Court willing to ignore 75 years of precedent.
- State election officials willing to put a "disqualified" candidate on the ballot.
- A majority of the American public to go along with it.
That’s a tall order. Even some of Trump’s biggest supporters, like Senator Robert Taft’s descendants or old-school RNC members, have historically pointed to the 22nd Amendment as a vital guardrail against "dictatorship or tyranny."
What’s Next?
The debate over Donald Trump term limits isn't going away. Expect to see more "ballot integrity" bills in states like New York and Illinois, and likely some "repeal the 22nd" resolutions from deep-red states just to test the waters.
If you want to stay ahead of this, keep an eye on the court cases coming out of California this spring. Those rulings will be the first real test of whether the 22nd Amendment is as solid as we think it is.
What you can do now:
- Read the full text of the 12th and 22nd Amendments to see the phrasing for yourself.
- Follow the progress of California's Senate Bill (Umberg) to see if other states follow suit.
- Watch for any formal filings from the Trump campaign regarding "exploratory committees" for 2028—that’s when the real legal fireworks start.