It’s the question that won't go away. Honestly, you’ve probably seen the clips. One minute, Donald Trump is at a rally talking about trade, and the next, he’s rambling about how windmills drive whales "loco" or confusing Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi. It’s a pattern that has social media in a frenzy and medical experts arguing behind the scenes. People keep asking: Is this just "Trump being Trump," or are we seeing a legitimate Donald Trump mental decline?
Let's be real—diagnosing a president from a couch is a messy business.
Since the start of his second term in 2025, the volume has been turned up. We aren't just talking about a few verbal stumbles anymore. We're looking at a 79-year-old man in the most stressful job on the planet. Whether you're a fan or not, the data points are stacking up.
The Evidence Experts Are Actually Watching
When doctors look at someone’s cognitive health, they aren't just looking for "stupid" comments. They’re looking for specific markers. Psychologists like Dr. John Gartner and Dr. Bandy Lee have been vocal about certain red flags. Gartner, for instance, has pointed to "phonemic paraphasias"—basically, that’s when someone starts a word but can't quite finish it, or it comes out as a weird non-word.
Think back to the South Korea speech in late 2025.
Trump seemed to "buffer" mid-sentence. He was looking at a teleprompter, fumbled the word "Azerbaijan," and then just… stopped. It wasn’t a dramatic pause for effect. It was an awkward, frozen moment that viewers called a "glitch."
But it’s not just the words. It’s the "weave."
Trump often defends his rambling by calling it a brilliant rhetorical strategy. He says he starts one topic, goes to another, and eventually circles back. But experts like Harry Segal from Cornell University argue this is actually "tangential thinking." It’s a sign that the brain is struggling to regulate its own narrative. If you can't stay on one track, it might be because the tracks are starting to cross.
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The 2025 Review: A Year of "Glitches"
If we look back at the 2025 timeline, the incidents aren't exactly rare.
- The Windmill Rant: During a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump suddenly switched from immigration to a two-minute monologue about how wind turbines kill birds and make whales go crazy.
- The Unabomber Story: In July, he claimed his uncle, Dr. John Trump, taught Ted Kaczynski at MIT. Fact checkers quickly pointed out that this timeline doesn't actually work.
- The "Quiet Piggy" Moment: There have been reports of disinhibited behavior—saying things that most people would filter out. In December 2025, he made comments about Somali immigrants and even lashed out at Rob Reiner in a way that left even his allies scratching their heads.
The Medical Pushback: "Perfect Health" or Smoke and Mirrors?
The White House, as you’d expect, says everything is fine. They released a memo in December 2025 claiming his "mental sharpness is second to none."
Trump himself loves to brag about "acing" cognitive tests. He frequently mentions the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), the one where you have to identify an elephant and draw a clock. But here is the thing: Ziad Nasreddine, the neurologist who actually created that test, has noted that a 2018 score is totally irrelevant by 2026. Cognitive health isn't a trophy you win once; it’s a moving target.
Then there’s the CT scan confusion.
In October 2025, Trump went to Walter Reed. He initially told reporters he had an MRI. Later, he backtracked, saying it was a CT scan for his heart and abdomen. He even said he regretted it because it gave the media "ammunition."
"I want nice, thin blood pouring through my heart. Does that make sense?" he told the Wall Street Journal in January 2026. It’s a weird way to describe taking 325mg of aspirin daily, but that’s the Trump style.
The "Goldwater Rule" Dilemma
Why don't more doctors just come out and say it? It’s because of something called the Goldwater Rule.
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Back in 1964, a bunch of psychiatrists said Barry Goldwater was unfit for office without ever meeting him. He sued, and the American Psychiatric Association (APA) made it "unethical" for members to diagnose public figures from a distance.
But many experts now argue this rule is outdated.
They say they have a "duty to warn." When they see "word salad," "confabulation" (making up stories to fill memory gaps), and "psychomotor decline" (like the time he struggled to salute on Veterans Day), they feel they have to speak up. It’s a tug-of-war between professional ethics and public safety.
What the Public Actually Thinks
The polls are reflecting the anxiety. A YouGov survey from September 2025 showed that 49% of Americans believe Trump is suffering from some form of cognitive decline. That’s up from 40% just before the 2024 election.
Interestingly, Independents are the ones moving the needle. Over half of them now say they're worried about his mental fitness. Even among Republicans, the "surety" that he is 100% fine has dropped from 78% to 74%. It’s a small dip, but it shows the conversation is reaching everyone.
Donald Trump Mental Decline: Misconceptions vs. Reality
One big misconception is that "forgetting a name" equals dementia.
It doesn't.
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Everyone forgets names. What's more concerning to neurologists is the type of mistake. Confusing two people who look nothing alike (Haley and Pelosi) or mixing up countries (Albania and Armenia) repeatedly suggests a problem with "retrieval." The information is in the brain, but the "file clerk" in the head is taking the wrong path to get it.
Another thing: the "sundowning" effect.
Observers have noted that Trump’s schedule has become much lighter. He usually starts around noon and ends by 5 PM. His official appearances are down nearly 40% compared to his first term. When he does appear late at night, that's often when the "glitches" are most prominent.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch For Next
If you're trying to cut through the noise and figure out what's real, don't just look at the headlines. Watch the raw footage.
- Look for "The Weave" getting loose. If he starts a story and literally never returns to the point, that’s a red flag for executive function.
- Watch the gait. Changes in how someone walks or balances (psychomotor skills) often precede the more obvious mental lapses in certain types of cognitive decline.
- Monitor the vocabulary. A shrinking "word bank" or the frequent use of filler words (great, beautiful, disaster) to replace specific technical terms can be a sign of linguistic erosion.
- Check the "Goldwater" updates. Keep an eye on whether the APA modifies its stance on the Goldwater Rule. If they do, expect a flood of professional assessments to hit the mainstream.
At the end of the day, we're in uncharted territory. We have the oldest president in history navigating a world that doesn't slow down. Whether it’s normal aging or something more serious, the conversation about Donald Trump mental decline isn't going away—it’s just getting started.
To stay informed, focus on verified medical reporting rather than partisan commentary, and keep an eye on official White House medical disclosures, specifically looking for the results of a formal Neuropsychological Exam, which is far more detailed than the basic MoCA "clock" test.