You've probably heard the headlines. People are talking about a "purge" or a "total dismantling" of the government. But honestly, if you're a federal worker or just someone trying to figure out if the Social Security office will still be open next month, the reality is way more complicated than a simple soundbite. We are currently in early 2026, and the dust from the first year of Donald Trump’s second term is finally starting to settle, revealing a federal landscape that looks—well, pretty different.
Basically, the "shock and awe" phase of 2025 has transitioned into a gritty, bureaucratic "Phase Two." The big headlines about 300,000 layoffs and the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) have turned into actual policy memos and updated salary tables. It’s not just about who’s getting fired anymore; it’s about how the people who stayed are being paid, where they’re working, and who they actually report to.
The Pay Gap and the 1% Reality
Let’s talk money first, because that’s usually what matters most when you're staring at a mortgage. For 2026, the pay situation for Donald Trump federal employees is a bit of a mixed bag, and mostly, it’s lean.
Back in late 2025, the President signed an executive order locking in a 1.0% across-the-board pay increase for most civilian workers. If you’re a GS-12 in DC, that’s maybe an extra $70 or $80 a month before the tax man takes his cut. It’s the smallest raise since 2021. To make things tighter, locality pay—the extra bump you get for living in expensive cities like San Francisco or New York—has been frozen at 2025 levels.
But there’s a massive exception. If you’re in law enforcement, you’re looking at a 3.8% increase. The administration has made it very clear: they want to reward the "front line" while tightening the belt on the "back office."
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The "Schedule Policy/Career" Rebrand
Remember the "Schedule F" drama from the end of the first term? It’s back, but it’s had a bit of a makeover. It’s now often referred to as Schedule Policy/Career.
The goal is the same, though. It’s designed to take "policy-influencing" positions—the kind of roles held by senior subject matter experts who have been around for decades—and strip away their civil service protections. Essentially, it makes them at-will employees.
Why does this matter?
- Accountability vs. Stability: The administration says this is about making sure the people running the government actually follow the President's agenda.
- The "Deep State" Narrative: Critics, like the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU), argue it’s just a way to replace experts with political loyalists.
- The Numbers: We’ve seen nearly 317,000 departures since the start of 2025. Some were layoffs, but about 75,000 people took a "deferred resignation" deal—basically a buyout to leave quietly.
Where Did Everyone Go?
It’s not just that people are leaving; it's which agencies are being hollowed out. If you work at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) or the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), you’ve seen the empty desks. OPM, in particular, has been gutted, with many of its functions absorbed into the White House or the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
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On the flip side, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Homeland Security (DHS) have seen growth. It’s a literal shifting of the guard. The administration isn't just shrinking the government; they're moving the pieces around the board.
The End of the "Pyjama Office"
If you’re a federal employee who got used to working from your kitchen table in your Ugg boots, those days are pretty much over.
OPM Director Scott Kupor has been very vocal about this. As of early 2026, the government is seeing in-office rates of around 90%. That is a massive jump from the 30% we saw just a couple of years ago. The administration’s stance is simple: "Showing up counts." They’ve argued that video calls "survived" the pandemic but didn't "build relationships."
There are exemptions, of course—about 10% of the workforce, mostly those with specific disabilities or military spouses. But for the average worker, the commute is back. This has actually been a "stealth" way to reduce the workforce; a lot of people who moved away from DC during the pandemic simply chose to quit rather than move back.
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What’s Actually Happening with DOGE?
The "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) was the shiny new toy of 2025, led by Elon Musk. People thought it was going to be a permanent new agency.
In reality, DOGE is sunsetting this coming summer. But don't think its influence is gone. It basically acted as a "consulting firm" for the White House, identifying "redundant" positions and "low-value" programs. Its DNA has been spliced into the OPM and OMB.
They’ve also pushed a four-to-one hiring ratio. For every four people who leave an agency, only one new person can be hired. This is a slow-motion way to shrink the government without having to do a single, massive, legally-questionable mass firing.
Navigating the New Normal: Actionable Insights
If you’re currently one of the Donald Trump federal employees still in the mix, or if you're a contractor looking at the new landscape, here’s how you actually navigate this:
- Check Your Classification: If your role is being looked at for "Schedule Policy/Career" status, talk to your union representative immediately. The legal battles over these reclassifications are still tied up in the courts, and you need to know your rights before you sign anything.
- Budget for 1%: Don't bank on a big raise or a locality adjustment. The 2026 budget is remarkably firm on this. If you're in a high-cost area, you might need to look at internal transfers to law enforcement-adjacent roles if you qualify, as that’s where the money is moving.
- The "Hiring Committee" Shift: Hiring is no longer just a HR function. Under new executive orders, "agency leadership" must now function as a hiring committee for new roles. If you're looking to move up, your technical skills matter, but your alignment with the agency's "strategic mission" (read: the President’s priorities) is being weighed more heavily than ever.
- Contractor Opportunities: Interestingly, while the federal headcount is dropping, the demand for "commercial-first" solutions is rising. The FY 2026 NDAA emphasizes streamlining acquisition. If you’re a contractor, the government is looking to buy products rather than just hire hours.
The reality of the federal workforce in 2026 isn't a total collapse, but it is a massive cultural and structural pivot. The "career" path in the civil service is becoming shorter and more political, while the "operational" side is getting leaner and more focused on law enforcement and defense. Whether that’s a "reform" or a "gutting" usually depends on which side of the political aisle you’re sitting on—but for the people actually doing the work, it’s simply the new rules of the game.
To stay ahead, keep a close watch on the OPM's 2026 Salary Tables and the upcoming quarterly updates on Annual Staffing Plans. These documents, filed every three months, will tell you exactly which offices are slated for further reductions and which ones are "safe" for the remainder of the fiscal year.