Polling numbers are weird. One day a president is the hero of the working class, and the next, he’s underwater by double digits. Right now, everyone is staring at the Donald Trump approval rating like it’s a flickering neon sign. Some see a disaster; others see a temporary dip before a massive comeback.
If you look at the raw data from early 2026, the picture is—honestly—pretty messy. After a honeymoon period that saw him starting his second term with a bit of wind in his sails, things have shifted. We’re seeing a significant slide. In January 2025, he was actually sitting at a +6 net approval. Fast forward to now, and he’s roughly 12 to 13 points underwater depending on which aggregator you trust. RealClearPolitics has him at 42.1% approval, while Gallup recently clocked him at a much lower 36%.
It’s a massive 18-point swing in just about a year.
Why the sudden chill? It isn’t just one thing. It's a cocktail of inflation, controversial tariffs, and a base of independent voters that seems to be headed for the exits. When people can't afford eggs, they don't care about "the movement." They care about their wallets.
The Independent "Cliff" and Why It Matters
Independents are the "holy grail" of American politics. You can't win without them, and you definitely can't govern effectively if they hate what you're doing.
Back in January 2025, Trump was basically breaking even with this group. He was only 1 point underwater. That’s actually a great spot for a guy who usually polarizes people instantly. But something broke. By December, he was 43 points underwater with independents. That is a staggering 42-point decline in net approval among the very people who decided the last election.
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Harry Enten over at CNN called it "falling off a cliff."
It’s not just a Gen Z thing, though that's part of it. Young voters (born between 1997 and 2012) have swung wildly. They went from a +10 net approval for Trump in February 2025 to a -32 now.
What's actually driving the hate?
- Inflation is the big one. A Brookings report points out that 73% of people think he’s not doing enough to lower prices.
- Tariffs. While they sound good on the campaign trail, the actual impact on consumer goods has left a sour taste in people's mouths.
- Foreign Policy. While his base loves the "strongman" vibe, 70% of voters in a Quinnipiac poll said they don't want military action against Iran without congressional approval.
The Economy: A Strength Turned Weakness?
For years, Trump’s "superpower" was the economy. Even people who hated his tweets often admitted they liked their 401(k)s.
That armor is cracking.
In a recent Marist poll, his economic approval dropped to 37%. That’s his lowest ever—including his first term. When you dig into the numbers, only 27% of Americans rate the current economy as "excellent" or "good." A massive 72% think it’s fair or poor.
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It’s a classic "kitchen table" issue. If the person at the top says the economy is booming but you’re struggling to pay rent, you’re going to be annoyed. That’s basically where we are. Only 18% of people say they are better off now than they were a year ago.
Where He’s Still Winning (Yes, Really)
It’s not all doom and gloom for the White House. If you look at specific issues, there are still pockets of strength.
He still does reasonably well on immigration and crime. In fact, his approval on crime (43%) and foreign affairs (41%) actually beats his overall job rating. There is a segment of the population that still views him as the only guy willing to "do the dirty work" on the border.
His base is also remarkably loyal. Among Republicans, he’s still holding onto an 84% approval rating. While that’s a dip from the 91% he started the year with, it’s still a fortress. Democrats, predictably, are at near-zero approval (around 3%).
The partisan divide is now an 86-point gap.
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A Quick Reality Check on Polling Averages (Jan 2026)
| Aggregator | Approval % | Disapproval % | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | 42.1% | 55.3% | -13.2% |
| Ballotpedia | 42.0% | 55.0% | -13.0% |
| The Economist | 40.0% | 56.0% | -16.0% |
| Gallup (Dec) | 36.0% | 59.0% | -23.0% |
What Happens Next?
Is this the end? Probably not. Trump has a history of bouncing back from "low" numbers. In December 2017, he hit 36% and people said he was finished. He obviously wasn't.
But 2026 is a midterm year. These numbers are a nightmare for down-ballot Republicans. If the Donald Trump approval rating doesn't climb back toward the mid-40s by the summer, the GOP could be looking at a "blue wave" in Congress.
The administration’s path forward is pretty clear, even if it's hard to execute. They have to fix the perception of the economy. If prices stabilize and the "invasion and possible occupation of Venezuela" (as some reports have termed the current tensions) doesn't turn into a quagmire, the numbers could flip back.
Key Takeaways for the Months Ahead
- Watch the "Better Off" Stat: If the percentage of people saying they are "better off" stays below 20%, the approval rating won't budge.
- Independent Recovery: Trump needs to win back the suburban independents who are currently fleeings over tariff-related price hikes.
- The "Rigged" Narrative: Trump has already started calling the polls "rigged" on Truth Social, claiming his "real" rating is 64%. Watch for how much his base buys into this vs. the reality of the 2026 midterm results.
The reality of the Donald Trump approval rating is that it’s a reflection of the national mood: anxious, frustrated, and deeply divided. Whether he can pivot and address the "affordability crisis" or if he stays focused on "big picture" foreign policy and social issues will determine if these numbers are a temporary dip or a permanent slide.
Keep a close eye on the generic congressional ballot. Currently, Democrats hold a slim lead (about 44% to 42%). If that gap widens, the approval rating is telling you exactly what’s going to happen in November.
To stay ahead of these trends, you should monitor the weekly updates from the Marist Institute and the Silver Bulletin. These outlets provide the most granular looks at the independent voters who ultimately decide the direction of the country. Comparing these numbers against the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly CPI (Consumer Price Index) reports will give you the clearest picture of why the ratings are moving the way they are. If inflation drops, the approval rating likely follows it—upward.