It is funny how political math works. You’d think a guy who won the popular vote just over a year ago would be riding high, but the latest data on the approval rating trump today shows a reality that is, honestly, pretty messy. As we crack into the second week of January 2026, the honeymoon hasn't just ended—it feels like it was towed away by a repossession truck.
According to the newest aggregates from RealClearPolitics and Ballotpedia, Donald Trump is currently sitting roughly between 42% and 43.8% approval. That might not sound like a total disaster until you look at the "disapprove" column, which is consistently hovering at 53% or higher. Basically, he is starting 2026 about 10 to 13 points underwater.
The January 2026 Reality Check
Most presidents expect a "rally 'round the flag" moment when they take office. Trump actually had one. In January 2025, he was actually in the black, with a net positive rating of about +6. Fast forward twelve months, and that has completely flipped. Nate Silver’s "Silver Bulletin" recently noted that the net approval has been stuck at roughly -13 since the 2025 holiday season.
So, what happened?
Well, the "Venezuela operation" earlier this month—where the U.S. moved to seize Nicolas Maduro—gave him a tiny, temporary bump in some polls, but it didn't stick. The American public seems way more concerned with what’s happening at the grocery store than what's happening in Caracas.
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The Independent Exodus
If you want to know why the numbers are sliding, look at the middle of the road.
Independents are essentially "ghosting" the administration right now. A year ago, Trump was nearly even with independent voters (about -1). Today? He is a staggering 43 points underwater with that specific group according to CNN’s latest data analysis. You can't win a midterm—which is coming up this November—if independents are that unhappy.
Why the Approval Rating Trump Today Is Struggling
It really comes down to three things: the wallet, the border, and a whole lot of tariffs.
Honestly, the economy is the anchor dragging these numbers down. Even though Trump claims inflation has stopped, a Marist poll found that only 37% of Americans actually approve of his economic handling. People are still feeling the sting of high prices, and they aren't buying the "it’s Biden’s fault" argument anymore. By a two-to-one margin, voters are now pinning the current cost of living directly on the current guy in the Oval Office.
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Then there are the tariffs.
Trump loves them. The public? Not so much.
While his base digs the "America First" rhetoric, the actual price increases at the checkout counter are hurting his standing with the very people who put him back in office.
The Partisan Wall
One thing that hasn't changed is how much we hate each other's candidates.
The partisan gap is basically a canyon.
- Republicans: About 86-91% still think he’s doing a great job.
- Democrats: Only about 2-6% agree.
This kind of polarization means there is a "floor" to how low his numbers can go, but also a "ceiling" that makes it nearly impossible for him to reach a majority approval again. He’s essentially trapped in the low 40s.
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The 2026 Midterm Warning Signs
The White House should be sweating the generic ballot for the 2026 midterms. Right now, Democrats have a 2-point lead (44% to 42%) in the generic congressional preference, which doesn't sound like much until you realize that independents are breaking for Democrats by 8 points.
What’s wild is that Trump is actually doing "better" than he did at this exact point in his first term. In December 2017, he hit a low of 36% approval. He’s currently beating his old self by about 6 points, which I guess is a win if you're looking for silver linings. But compared to guys like George W. Bush (who was at 86% after 9/11) or even Obama (at 50%), his standing is historically weak for a president entering their second year.
What to Watch Next
As we move deeper into January, keep an eye on these specific shifts:
- The "Affordability" Message: Trump has been trying to pivot back to cost-of-living issues. If gas or grocery prices dip this month, his rating might crawl back toward 45%.
- JD Vance’s Visibility: The Vice President is being sent to swing states like Pennsylvania to sell the economic plan. His favorability (currently 46%) is actually higher than Trump's in some regions.
- The "Epstein Files" fallout: There’s some weird internal friction in the MAGA base right now over the release of these files, with even Marjorie Taylor Greene occasionally throwing shade. If the base starts to fracture, that 90% Republican support might finally soften.
Taking Action: How to Track the Real Numbers
If you’re trying to keep a pulse on this, don't just look at one poll. One poll is a snapshot; a "moving average" is a movie.
- Check the Aggregators: Site like RealClearPolitics or 538 (now part of ABC News) average out the "outlier" polls so you don't get spooked by one weird result.
- Look at the "Strongly Disapprove" Metric: This is often more important than the general disapproval. Currently, about 49% of voters "strongly" disapprove. That's a huge number of people who are essentially unmovable.
- Watch the "Generic Ballot": Since 2026 is an election year, the approval rating of the President is often a "canary in the coal mine" for how many seats the GOP might lose in the House this November.
The math for the approval rating trump today is pretty simple: as long as people feel broke, the numbers will stay broke. Until the administration can convince the average shopper that prices are actually coming down, expect these 42% numbers to be the new normal.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should set a recurring alert for the "RCP Average" every Tuesday morning, as that's when the bulk of the new weekly tracking data from Gallup and Morning Consult typically hits the wire. Monitoring the spread between "Approve" and "Disapprove" in the Rust Belt specifically (PA, MI, WI) will give you a much better forecast for the 2026 midterms than the national headline numbers ever will.