Politics in North Carolina has always been a bit of a rollercoaster. It’s that rare state where you can find a deep-red rural county just a few miles away from a bright-blue tech hub. Naturally, everyone is looking at the donald trump approval rating north carolina to see which way the wind is blowing as we head deeper into 2026.
Honestly, the numbers are telling a complicated story. It isn't just a simple "up or down" situation. Depending on which poll you catch on your morning feed—whether it’s the latest from High Point University or a fresh batch of data from the Carolina Journal—the vibe changes.
The Current State of the Numbers
As of mid-January 2026, the donald trump approval rating north carolina sits in a precarious spot. Recent data from the Carolina Journal indicates that about 46% of North Carolina voters approve of the job he’s doing. Meanwhile, disapproval has ticked up to roughly 53%.
That’s a notable shift. Just last year, things looked a bit more "toss-up" style.
Back in September 2025, a Harper Polling survey had the state split almost perfectly down the middle, with 49.4% approving and 49% disapproving. But as 2026 kicks off, that gap is widening. People are feeling the squeeze.
Why the change?
It’s mostly the economy. Even though the "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act was supposed to smooth things over, a lot of folks in the Tar Heel state aren't feeling the love in their wallets. Around 40% of North Carolinians recently told Emerson College pollsters that their family's finances are worse off than they were a year ago. When people feel broke, they usually look at the person in the White House first.
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Why North Carolina is Different
You’ve got to remember that North Carolina isn't Florida or Alabama. It’s a "purple-to-lean-red" state that likes to keep its options open.
In 2024, Trump won the state by about 3.2%. It was a solid win, sure, but it wasn't a landslide. Now, the 2026 midterms are looming, and the state's political identity is being tested again. With Senator Thom Tillis retiring after a fairly public falling out with the Trump wing of the party, the vacuum is being filled by a whole lot of noise.
The "Trump factor" is hitting different demographic groups in ways we didn't quite see coming:
- Younger Voters: There is a massive slide here. Among voters under 35 who backed him in 2024, approval has cratered significantly. Some polls show a 20-point drop in this specific group since the inauguration.
- The Suburbs: Places like Wake and Mecklenburg counties continue to be the biggest headaches for the GOP. The disapproval ratings there are consistently higher than the state average.
- Rural Reliability: This is where the floor is. In the western part of the state and the coastal plains, the donald trump approval rating north carolina remains a fortress. Even with economic anxiety, these voters largely view the President as a fighter who stands up for them.
The Influence of Local Leaders
You can't talk about Trump's numbers in NC without mentioning Governor Josh Stein. Stein currently enjoys a 50% approval rating, which is significantly higher than the President's.
It creates this weird "split-ticket" energy.
Voters seem to like Stein’s steady hand on state issues while remaining deeply skeptical of the federal direction. When the Carolina Journal asked who is responsible for the current state of the economy, 52% of North Carolinians pointed the finger squarely at the Trump administration. Only about 29% blamed the previous Biden-Harris era. That’s a tough hurdle for any politician.
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The Issues Driving the Shift
If you’re hanging out at a Bojangles in Greensboro or a coffee shop in Asheville, the conversation eventually turns to prices.
Inflation is the "big bad" of 2026 politics.
While the administration has pushed tariffs as a way to protect American jobs, many North Carolina farmers are worried. A recent report warned that these trade policies could cost the state's agriculture sector hundreds of millions of dollars. For a state that relies heavily on tobacco, sweet potatoes, and poultry exports, that isn't just a talking point—it's a threat to a way of life.
Then there's the immigration issue.
This is actually one of Trump’s strongest areas in the state. Even as his overall donald trump approval rating north carolina dips, his handling of border security remains a plus for about 41-43% of the population. Among Republicans, it’s basically the glue holding the coalition together.
Misconceptions About the "Wrong Track"
There is a common myth that if a state is on the "wrong track," the incumbent is doomed.
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In North Carolina, 53.7% of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction. That sounds like a disaster for Trump. However, if you dig into the "why," some of that "wrong track" sentiment comes from his own supporters who think he isn't going far enough or fast enough.
It’s a nuanced dissatisfaction.
What Happens Next?
The 2026 Senate race is going to be the real litmus test. With Roy Cooper potentially facing off against a Trump-backed candidate like Michael Whatley, we’re going to see if the donald trump approval rating north carolina is a weight or a wing.
If you are tracking these numbers for your own political awareness or business planning, keep an eye on these specific triggers over the next few months:
- Tariff Impacts: Watch for local news reports on North Carolina farm layoffs. If the agriculture sector takes a hit, expect the approval numbers in rural counties to soften.
- The "Cooper Effect": Roy Cooper is a popular figure. If he manages to tie his opponent's identity entirely to the President’s more polarizing policies, he could flip the Senate seat.
- Interest Rates: If the Fed doesn't move in a way that helps housing affordability in the Research Triangle, the "finances are worse" metric will keep dragging down the job approval.
Basically, the era of "automatic" North Carolina support for the MAGA agenda has shifted into a "prove it" phase. The state is still very much in play for both sides, but for the first time in years, the Republican base in the Tar Heel state is showing some visible cracks in its enthusiasm.
To stay ahead of these shifts, focus on county-level polling rather than statewide aggregates. The real story isn't in Raleigh; it's in the shift of the 15% of "unsure" voters who are currently waiting to see if their grocery bills actually start to go down before the March primaries.