Honestly, if you’re trying to track what Donald Trump is saying about the stock market lately, you have to be ready for a bit of whiplash. We are currently sitting in January 2026, and the vibe is a mix of high-energy bragging and intense legal drama. Just last week in Michigan, Trump claimed his first year back in office would go down as the "greatest first year in history."
He’s not exactly shy about taking credit. The S&P 500 has climbed about 16% since he took the oath again in 2025. He loves that number. But while he’s cheering on the record highs, he’s also picking a massive fight with the people who actually control the levers of the economy.
The "Jerk" at the Fed and the Fight for Rate Cuts
Trump is currently obsessed with Jerome Powell. It’s getting personal. He recently called the Fed Chair a "jerk" and "Too Late Powell" during a speech in Detroit. Why? Because Trump wants interest rates to drop, and he wants them to drop now.
His logic is pretty simple: he thinks the market is doing great, but it could be doing "beautifully" if the Fed wasn't so "petrified of inflation." He basically told reporters that whenever the market goes up, the Fed should be cutting rates to keep the momentum alive.
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- The Accusation: Trump says the Fed "kills every rally" because they are too cautious.
- The Threat: He’s hinted at replacing Powell soon, even though Powell’s term as chair doesn't technically end until May 2026.
- The Reality: Most of Wall Street thinks the Fed will stay the course. Inflation is still hovering around 3%, which is higher than their 2% target.
The Greenland Gambit and Global Market Jitters
You might have seen the headlines about Greenland. Yes, it’s back. Trump has been floating a 10% tariff on European countries—specifically Denmark, France, and Germany—unless they support his "ambition" regarding Greenland.
The markets didn't love that. When he doubled down on the threat this past Saturday, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.23%. Investors are worried that these "Greenland tariffs" will spark a fresh trade war. Trump, however, remains unbothered. He claims his previous tariffs have delivered "trillions of dollars in new investment."
He’s basically saying that the stock market is resilient enough to handle a bit of global arm-twisting. He calls it "negotiating from strength," while some traders are just calling it "Monday morning volatility."
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The Rise of "America First" ETFs
One of the more interesting things Trump is talking about right now isn't just policy—it's products. Trump Media & Technology Group (the Truth Social parent company) recently helped launch five "America First" ETFs on the New York Stock Exchange.
Trump has been touting these as the "anti-woke" alternative to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investing. He wants your 401(k) to bet on:
- American-based manufacturing.
- Real estate in "red" states.
- Nuclear fusion and traditional energy.
- Bitcoin and "security" tech.
He’s leaning hard into the "crypto capital of the world" promise. If you listen to his recent Truth Social posts, he’s basically framing the stock market as a battleground between "patriot investors" and "globalist elites." It’s a wild way to look at a brokerage account, but it’s landing with his base.
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The Hidden Stress: Tariffs vs. Earnings
There is a bit of a "yeah, but" situation happening. While Trump is shouting about record highs, some analysts are pointing to a cooling labor market. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in December.
Trump’s response? He blames the "stiff Fed" for the slow hiring. He refuses to acknowledge that his 16% effective tariff rate might be making things more expensive for companies. Instead, he’s promising more tax cuts via what he calls the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." He says this will boost corporate earnings by another $100 billion this year.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
If you're trying to make sense of the noise, here is the bottom line on what Trump is actually signaling to the market:
- He wants a "Hot" Economy: He is going to keep bullying the Fed to lower rates. If he gets his way and nominates someone like Kevin Warsh to replace Powell, the market might rally on the news of cheaper money.
- Volatility is a Feature, Not a Bug: He uses tariff threats (like the Greenland situation) as a tool. This causes "dips." So far, the "buy the dip" crowd has been winning, but it’s a high-stakes game.
- Sector Bets: He is clearly signaling support for domestic energy, defense, and crypto. If you're looking for where his "favor" lies, those are the sectors he mentions in almost every speech.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Watch the Supreme Court: They are currently deciding if Trump has the legal power to impose those IEEPA tariffs without Congressional approval. If they rule against him, the "tariff threat" volatility might settle down.
- Monitor the Fed Vacancy: The next few months are huge. If Trump officially names a successor to Powell, expect a major reaction in the bond market.
- Diversify Beyond "Noise": Trump’s rhetoric can move specific stocks (like Intel or Trump Media) in a single afternoon. Don't let a Truth Social post dictate your entire long-term strategy.
The market is currently pricing in a "Goldilocks" scenario—growth that isn't too hot to stop rate cuts, but not so cold it's a recession. Trump is betting he can keep that balance while pushing his trade agenda. It's a tightrope walk, and he’s doing it in front of the whole world.