The dust has long since settled on the Palmetto State’s red clay, but people are still parsing through the data to figure out exactly who won South Carolina and, more importantly, how they pulled it off. It wasn’t just a win; it was a statement. In the 2024 primary cycle, South Carolina acted as the ultimate gatekeeper for both parties, though for very different reasons.
Donald Trump didn't just win the Republican primary. He dominated it.
He faced off against Nikki Haley, the state's former governor, on her own home turf. You’d think a hometown hero advantage would count for something, right? Not this time. Trump took about 59.8% of the vote compared to Haley’s 39.5%. It was a brutal margin that basically signaled the end of any "moderate" surge within the GOP. On the other side of the aisle, Joe Biden cruised through the Democratic primary with 96.2% of the vote. It was a blowout. But if you look under the hood of those numbers, the story gets a lot more complicated than just a simple "who won" tally.
The Republican Showdown: Why Trump Took the Crown
Nikki Haley spent millions. She knocked on doors from Charleston to Greenville. She leaned hard into her record as the governor who took down the Confederate flag and brought jobs to the state.
It didn't matter.
Trump’s grip on the base was—and is—ironclad. He won almost every demographic except for the most liberal-leaning Republicans and some college-educated voters in urban pockets like Columbia and Charleston. The "First in the South" primary is usually about momentum, and Trump used it like a sledgehammer. Voters in South Carolina weren't looking for a "return to normalcy" or the kind of traditional conservatism Haley represented. They wanted the fighter they knew.
Honestly, the exit polls told the real story. When you ask voters about the economy or immigration, they trust Trump by massive margins. In South Carolina, these aren't just talking points; they are daily realities. The state has a huge veteran population and a massive evangelical base. Trump has spent years cultivating those specific groups, and it paid off in a nearly 20-point victory. Haley did manage to win in places like Charleston County and Richland County, but the rural counties? They went deep red for Trump.
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The "Haley Gap" and why it matters
Even though she lost, Haley’s 40% wasn't nothing. It showed a persistent, stubborn slice of the Republican electorate that just isn't sold on the MAGA movement.
Some analysts, like those at the University of South Carolina’s political science department, pointed out that Haley’s support came largely from independents who crossed over. South Carolina has open primaries. You don’t have to be a registered Republican to vote in the GOP primary. This created a bit of a "skewed" reality where Haley looked stronger than she actually was within the core of the party.
Biden’s 96% Victory: More Than Just a Number
Joe Biden’s victory in the South Carolina Democratic primary was less of a race and more of a coronation. He won every single county. Every. Single. One.
But why does South Carolina matter so much to him? It’s personal.
Back in 2020, Biden’s campaign was basically on life support after failing in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then came Jim Clyburn. The legendary Congressman gave Biden the endorsement that changed everything. Black voters in South Carolina saved Biden’s political career. Because of that, Biden pushed to make South Carolina the very first official primary on the Democratic calendar for 2024, bumping New Hampshire from its long-held spot.
- Black Voter Turnout: This is the heartbeat of the SC Democratic party.
- The Clyburn Factor: If Jim Clyburn says a candidate is the real deal, people listen.
- Infrastructure: The Biden campaign had a massive ground game compared to challengers like Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.
The 96.2% win was meant to silence any talk of a primary challenge. It worked. But even with that high percentage, some party insiders were whispering about turnout numbers. While he won the people who showed up, the total number of voters was something the DNC watched closely. High percentages are great, but you need raw numbers to win a general election.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the South Carolina Result
A lot of folks think South Carolina is a monolith. They think it's just "deep south" and therefore predictable. That’s a mistake.
The state is actually three or four different political worlds mashed together. You have the "Upstate" around Greenville, which is heavily industrial, deeply religious, and very conservative. Then you have the "Lowcountry" near the coast, which is wealthier, more moderate, and filled with retirees from the North. Finally, there's the "Midlands" and the "Pee Dee" region, which have large African American populations and lean heavily Democratic.
When you ask who won South Carolina, you’re really asking which candidate managed to bridge those geographical divides. Trump did it by speaking to the economic anxieties of the Upstate. Biden did it by maintaining his deep-rooted trust with the Black community in the Midlands.
The Crossover Vote Confusion
There is this persistent myth that Democrats "stole" or "sabotaged" the Republican primary by voting for Haley.
While it's true that South Carolina allows crossover voting, the data from Associated Press VoteCast showed that while some non-Republicans voted for Haley, it wasn't nearly enough to change the outcome. Trump won the "true" Republicans by a landslide. The idea that the result was somehow a fluke because of "meddling" just doesn't hold up when you look at the precinct-level data. Trump won because the GOP is now his party, through and through.
The Economic Backdrop of the Vote
You can't talk about these wins without talking about money. South Carolina has seen a massive influx of investment—think BMW, Volvo, and Boeing.
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Voters here are hyper-focused on who is going to keep those factories humming. For Trump voters, that means protectionist trade policies and "America First" rhetoric. For Biden supporters, it's about the "Investing in America" agenda and infrastructure bills that have funneled billions into state projects.
Actionable Insights for Following Future SC Elections
If you're trying to predict the next big shift in South Carolina politics, don't just look at the top-line winner. Look at the margins in the suburbs.
Track the "Golden Strip": The area between Greenville and Spartanburg is the engine of the state. If a Republican starts losing ground here, they are in big trouble.
Watch the "Black Belt" Turnout: In the rural counties stretching across the middle of the state, Democratic success depends entirely on turnout. If the numbers drop by even 5% in these areas, the statewide Democratic party loses its leverage.
Follow the Newcomers: Thousands of people are moving to South Carolina every month from places like New York, New Jersey, and Ohio. These "New South" voters are changing the chemistry of places like Horry County (Myrtle Beach) and Beaufort. They aren't traditional Southern voters, and their loyalty is still up for grabs.
To get the most accurate picture of South Carolina's political health, skip the national pundits and look at local outlets like The State in Columbia or the Post and Courier in Charleston. They catch the shifts in tone that national cameras miss. Check the Secretary of State's official precinct returns rather than relying on early "called" races to see where the real gaps are forming between urban and rural voters. Understanding these micro-trends is the only way to truly grasp the power dynamics of the Palmetto State.