Politics in Nebraska usually feels like a foregone conclusion. You see the sea of red on the map and you assume the story is over. But then you hit Omaha. Specifically, you hit the 2nd Congressional District—the "Blue Dot." If you were watching the Don Bacon election results on that Tuesday night in November 2024, you know it wasn't just another boring tally. It was a knife-fight.
Honestly, the 2nd District is a weird beast. It’s one of the few places in America where a Republican can win a House seat while the Democratic presidential candidate—in this case, Kamala Harris—walks away with the district's electoral vote. Don Bacon didn't just win; he survived.
The Rematch That Kept Everyone Up
Rematches are usually sequels that nobody asked for. But the showdown between incumbent Republican Don Bacon and Democratic State Senator Tony Vargas was different. This wasn't their first rodeo; Bacon had already beaten Vargas back in 2022.
The 2024 numbers were tight. Like, "don't-blink" tight.
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Bacon pulled in 160,198 votes, which gave him roughly 50.9% of the total. Vargas wasn't far behind at all, snagging 154,369 votes for a 49.1% finish. That’s a margin of about 5,800 votes in a district with over 300,000 ballots cast. It took nearly three days for the final call to happen because Douglas County—the heart of the district—had thousands of early and provisional ballots that needed to be hand-verified.
Vargas actually led in the early hours. At his watch party at the Kimpton Cottonwood Hotel, the mood was electric. People thought the Blue Dot was finally going to flip the House seat. But then the numbers from the more suburban and rural parts of Sarpy and Saunders counties started trickling in.
Why the "Blue Dot" Split Its Ticket
You’ve gotta wonder: how does Kamala Harris win the district by nearly 5 points while the Republican congressman wins by 2?
It’s about the split-ticket voter. Bacon himself admitted it. The day after the election, he held a press conference and basically said he couldn't have done it without people who voted for Harris and then crossed over to vote for him. He’s positioned himself as a "Main Street" Republican—someone who isn't always screaming on cable news. In a district that is 97% urban and highly educated, that moderate vibe is the only thing that keeps a Republican alive.
- Bacon's Strength: Moderate branding and deep roots in the military (he's a retired Air Force Brigadier General).
- The Harris Factor: The "Blue Dot" movement was massive, driven by a desire to give the Democratic nominee an electoral vote.
- The Disconnect: Many voters wanted to check the GOP's power at the top but trusted Bacon's local record.
Breaking Down the County Numbers
If you look at the raw data, the story is written in the geography. Douglas County is where the Democrats live. Vargas won there, taking about 51.9% of the vote. In any other district, that might be enough.
But Nebraska’s 2nd isn't just Omaha anymore. After the 2020 census, the district was redrawn. It now includes all of Saunders County and a big chunk of Sarpy County. These areas are significantly more conservative. In Sarpy, Bacon crushed it with over 65% of the vote. In Saunders, it wasn't even close; he took roughly 72%.
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That rural-suburban wall is what stopped the Vargas surge. It didn't matter how many "Blue Dot" signs were in midtown Omaha yards if the outskirts were voting Republican in such high concentrations.
The Cash Race
It wasn't just a battle of ideas; it was a battle of bank accounts. This was one of the most expensive House races in the country.
- Tony Vargas raised a staggering $7.5 million.
- Don Bacon raised about $6.3 million.
Usually, the person with the most money wins. Not here. Vargas outspent Bacon, but the incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug. Bacon has been in that seat since 2017. People know his face. They know his office helps with VA benefits and Social Security checks. That "retail politics" stuff matters more than a 30-second TV ad when the margins are this thin.
Don Bacon's Final Act: What Happens Now?
Here is the twist that caught people off guard: Don Bacon is retiring.
On June 30, 2025, Bacon announced he wouldn't seek reelection in 2026. He’s currently serving his fifth and final term in the 119th Congress. He’s the Chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation.
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Basically, he’s going out on his own terms. He mentioned that he's served since 2017 and is ready to move on. But his departure changes everything for the 2026 Don Bacon election results—mostly because there won't be any. Without an incumbent, the "Blue Dot" is officially the most vulnerable Republican seat in the United States.
The Path Forward for the 2nd District
With Bacon stepping away, the 2026 race is already a "Toss-up." National groups are going to pour tens of millions into Omaha.
If you're a voter in the 2nd District or just a political junkie watching from the outside, keep an eye on the primary candidates. For Republicans, the challenge is finding someone who can replicate Bacon's moderate appeal without alienating the base. For Democrats, it's about whether they can finally turn that presidential "Blue Dot" energy into a House seat.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on Nebraska politics, do these three things:
- Watch the Primaries: Without Bacon, the GOP primary will be a battle between the MAGA wing and the moderates. Who wins that tells you if the seat stays red.
- Track the "Blue Dot" Organization: The grassroots movement that helped Harris win the district in 2024 is still active. See if they pivot to a specific House candidate early.
- Monitor Redistricting Chatter: There are always rumblings about changing how Nebraska awards electoral votes. If the "winner-takes-all" bill ever passes the state legislature, the 2nd District's national importance drops overnight.
The Don Bacon election results from 2024 were a masterclass in survival. He threaded a needle that most politicians would have missed. Now that he’s heading toward retirement, the 2nd District is wide open, and the fight for Omaha's soul is just getting started.