You've probably seen the headlines. Maybe a weirdly urgent TikTok or a Facebook post from your aunt claiming the government is finally sending out more money. It’s hard to ignore, honestly. We’re living in a time where everything feels expensive—eggs cost a fortune, and rent isn't getting any cheaper. So, the big question is: do we get stimulus checks this year, or is it all just internet noise?
Well, the answer is "kinda." But it's not the same kind of money we saw during the pandemic.
There isn’t a flat $1,200 check coming to everyone from the IRS like there was in 2020. That era is over. However, there is a very real, very massive conversation happening in Washington right now about something called "Tariff Dividends." It’s basically a new-school version of a stimulus check.
The $2,000 Tariff Rebate: Fact or Fiction?
If you’ve heard a rumor about a $2,000 check, you aren't imagining things. President Trump has been pushing for what he calls a "tariff dividend." Essentially, the idea is to take the money the U.S. government collects from taxes on imported goods (tariffs) and hand it right back to American citizens.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently mentioned that the plan is sitting on the President's desk.
But here’s the catch.
It’s not a done deal.
To actually get those checks into your bank account, Congress has to say yes. Right now, there’s a bit of a fight. Some people in the House of Representatives, like Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, think that tariff money should go toward paying down the national debt. Others think giving it back to families is the way to go.
If it passes, the current talk is that it would be targeted toward people earning less than $100,000. It wouldn't be for everyone. And even if it gets the green light tomorrow, experts like those at Kiplinger say you likely wouldn't see a dime until the tail end of 2026.
Why your tax refund might look like a stimulus check
Even if the "Tariff Dividend" stays stuck in political limbo, a lot of people are going to see "stimulus-style" money through a different door: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
This law changed the game for 2026.
When you file your taxes this spring, you might notice your refund is significantly beefier than last year. For many, this is effectively a "backdoor" stimulus. For example, the Child Tax Credit has been bumped up to $2,200 per kid. If you have three kids, that's over six grand off your tax bill—or a massive refund check if you don't owe that much.
Then there are the "No Tax" rules that just kicked in.
- No Tax on Tips: If you’re a server or bartender, you can now deduct up to $25,000 in tips from your taxable income.
- No Tax on Overtime: Most workers can now deduct up to $12,500 of their overtime pay.
- Senior Deduction: If you're 65 or older, there’s an extra $6,000 deduction waiting for you.
When you add these up, the "check" you get back from the IRS might actually be larger than those old $1,200 COVID payments. J.P. Morgan actually estimated that the average refund this year could hit nearly $3,750. That’s a lot of grocery money.
What about state-level "Stimulus" payments?
While Washington argues, states are doing their own thing.
It’s easy to forget that your state government often has its own surplus of cash. In 2026, states like Montana and New York are expanding their own tax credits. Montana specifically boosted its Earned Income Tax Credit, which puts cash directly into the hands of lower-income workers.
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Meanwhile, eight states—including Oklahoma, Kentucky, and North Carolina—just slashed their income tax rates. It’s not a "check" in the mail, but your take-home pay on your Friday paycheck is literally bigger.
The Social Security "Check" Increase
If you're on Social Security or SSI, you already got a "stimulus" of sorts this month.
The 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) kicked in at 2.8%. For the average retiree, that’s about an extra $56 every single month. It’s not a windfall, but it’s a permanent increase. SSI recipients saw their maximum individual payment jump to $994.
The first round of these updated payments started hitting accounts on January 14, 2026. If you haven't seen yours yet, it depends on your birthday.
- Born 1st–10th: Received Jan 14.
- Born 11th–20th: Coming Jan 21.
- Born 21st–31st: Coming Jan 28.
Scams are everywhere—don't get Fooled
Because everyone is searching for "do we get stimulus checks," the scammers are out in full force.
Honestly, it’s gross. You might get a text message saying "Your $2,000 Stimulus is waiting! Click here to claim."
Do not click that link. The IRS will never text you to "claim" a check. If a federal stimulus is ever approved, it will be automatic based on your tax returns. You don't have to pay a "processing fee" to get government money. If someone asks for your social security number over a text message to "verify your eligibility," block them immediately.
What Really Happened With the Old Checks?
Some people are still waiting on money from years ago. If you never got your third stimulus check from the pandemic era, there is a tiny window left to claim it as a "Recovery Rebate Credit," but you usually have to file an amended return. Most of that money has already been sent out to the 175 million people who qualified.
The $5 trillion spent on COVID relief is basically accounted for now. We are firmly in a new era of "Tariff Dividends" and "Tax Deductions" rather than "Emergency Relief."
Actionable Steps: How to get your money in 2026
Since a single federal check isn't guaranteed yet, you have to be proactive to get the money that is available.
- File your taxes early: With the new OBBBA deductions (Tips, Overtime, Seniors), your refund is likely your biggest "stimulus" opportunity. The IRS is phasing out paper checks, so make sure your direct deposit info is 100% correct.
- Track the "Tariff Dividend" legislation: Keep an eye on the House Budget Committee. If they move the bill to the floor for a vote, that $2,000 check becomes a reality.
- Check your State’s Tax Credit list: If you live in a state like Montana, New York, or Alabama, look for specific "family" or "worker" credits that were added this year.
- Adjust your W-4: Since overtime and tips aren't taxed the same way anymore, you might be overpaying in your withholdings. Talk to your HR person; you could get more money in your weekly check right now instead of waiting for a refund next year.
The reality of do we get stimulus checks in 2026 is that the money is there, but it’s hiding in tax law rather than being handed out at the post office. Whether it's through a $2,200 Child Tax Credit or the potential $2,000 Tariff Dividend, the "check" is more about how you file than what the mailman brings.