Let’s be real for a second. When Saul "Canelo" Alvarez stepped into the ring on May 7, 2022, nobody—and I mean basically nobody outside of Saint Petersburg—actually thought he was going to lose. He was the pound-for-pound king. The face of boxing. The guy who had just steamrolled the entire 168-pound division to become undisputed.
Then he met Dmitry Bivol.
And suddenly, the invincible Mexican superstar looked... small. He looked tired. He looked, for the first time in nearly a decade, completely outclassed. People still talk about Dmitry Bivol vs Canelo like it was some kind of glitch in the matrix, but if you rewatch the tape, it wasn’t a fluke. It was a tactical clinic.
The Night the Aura Vanished
Most fans expected Canelo to walk through Bivol's power just like he did against Sergey Kovalev. But Bivol isn't Kovalev. Bivol is a master of distance, and his high guard is essentially a brick wall.
The stats from that night are still jarring to look at. Canelo landed just 84 punches over 12 rounds. That is a career low. To put that in perspective, he was landing at a measly 17% clip. Bivol didn't just win; he doubled Canelo's output, peppering him with a stiff jab and three-punch combinations that never let the shorter man get comfortable.
Honestly, the 115-113 scorecards were a gift. Most ringside experts had it much wider, something like 118-110 or 117-111. The judges gave Canelo the first four rounds—every single one of them—which felt like a "superstar discount" considering Bivol was already dictating the pace with that piston-like jab.
Why Canelo Couldn't Close the Gap
- The Lead Shoulder: Canelo spent the whole night trying to "break" Bivol’s arms. It’s a classic Mexican style tactic. If you can’t hit the head, kill the arms until they drop. Bivol’s arms were purple by the end, but they never dropped.
- Footwork: Bivol didn't back up in straight lines. He pivoted. Every time Canelo set his feet to unload a power hook, Bivol was three inches to the left.
- Weight: 175 pounds is simply Bivol’s house. Canelo is a natural 160/168-pounder. Pushing that extra weight up to light heavyweight against a guy who has been there his whole life? It’s a different kind of exhaustion.
The Rematch Drama: Why We’re Still Waiting
After the fight, Canelo immediately said, "We want the rematch." He’s a proud guy. He doesn't like having that "L" on his record, especially one where he didn't even come close to winning. But as 2023 turned into 2024, and now that we're sitting here in early 2026, the fight feels further away than ever.
The hang-up was always the terms. Canelo wanted the rematch at 175 again—he wanted to prove he could win under the same conditions. Bivol, being the ultimate "legacy" seeker, wanted to drop down to 168. He wanted to take Canelo’s undisputed super-middleweight belts.
"Why would I fight him for the same belt I already won?" Bivol asked. It’s a fair point. If you beat the boss on Hard Mode, why do you have to do it again just to prove it wasn't a mistake?
The "Turki" Era and the Beterbiev Factor
Everything changed when Riyadh Season and Turki Al-Sheikh took over boxing’s steering wheel. The focus shifted away from Canelo for a bit because Bivol had bigger fish to fry: Artur Beterbiev.
We saw that saga play out over the last year. Bivol lost a razor-thin majority decision to Beterbiev in late 2024, but then—in a massive turnaround—Bivol won the rematch in February 2025. He is now the undisputed light heavyweight king.
While Bivol was cementing his legacy at 175, Canelo was busy taking "safe" but lucrative fights against the likes of Edgar Berlanga and William Scull. Then came the shocker in September 2025. Canelo finally took a massive risk and fought Terence "Bud" Crawford. He lost. Another unanimous decision loss.
Where Do They Stand in 2026?
Right now, the landscape for Dmitry Bivol vs Canelo is weirdly complicated.
Bivol is currently recovering from back surgery that sidelined him after the Beterbiev win. His team is eyeing a return in the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, Canelo’s "aura" has taken some serious hits. Losing to Bivol was one thing—Bivol was bigger. But losing to Crawford, a guy who started at 135 pounds? That hurt the brand.
The Current Stats (As of January 2026):
- Dmitry Bivol: 24-1 (12 KOs) | Undisputed Light Heavyweight Champ.
- Saul Alvarez: 63-3-2 (39 KOs) | No longer holds all the 168-pound belts.
There’s a growing sentiment in the boxing world that Canelo doesn't actually want Bivol again. Bivol’s manager, Vadim Kornilov, has been pretty vocal about it, saying Canelo talks a big game at press conferences but never sends a real contract. Honestly, can you blame him? Bivol is a stylistic nightmare for Canelo. He’s tall, he’s disciplined, and he doesn't get lured into brawls.
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What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of people think Canelo was "injured" or "had a bad camp" for the first Bivol fight. Canelo himself mentioned he wasn't 100%. But let’s be honest: even a 110% Canelo struggles with Bivol's style. It’s a matter of geometry. Bivol’s reach and his ability to reset his feet in a split second nullify Canelo’s counter-punching. To beat Bivol, you have to out-volume him or knock him cold. Canelo couldn't do either.
Is the Rematch Still Possible?
If it happens, it’s going to be in Saudi Arabia. That’s the only place with enough money to satisfy both sides.
But there’s a catch. Bivol has stated he’s interested in moving to Cruiserweight or even waiting for a trilogy with Beterbiev. He’s looking at his own legacy now, not just being a "Canelo opponent." On the flip side, Canelo is 35. The clock is ticking. He’s in the "legacy and checks" phase of his career.
If Canelo wants to reclaim his spot as the P4P king, he has to beat Bivol. There’s no other way around it. Beating Crawford wouldn't have been enough (and he lost anyway), and beating David Benavidez—if he ever actually takes that fight—is a different kind of challenge.
Actionable Insights for Boxing Fans:
- Watch the Feet: If they ever do fight again, don't look at the punches. Look at Bivol's lead foot. If it's always outside of Canelo's lead foot, Canelo can't land the power right hand.
- The 168 Factor: If the fight happens at 168, Bivol will be drained. This is Canelo’s only real path to victory. A dehydrated Bivol might lose that 12th-round stamina that kept him safe in the first fight.
- Track the Riyadh Season: Keep an eye on Turki Al-Sheikh’s announcements for the Q3 2026 schedule. If the Bivol vs Canelo rematch isn't on there, it’s probably never happening.
Ultimately, the first fight showed us that greatness has limits. Canelo dared to be great, and Bivol was the ceiling. Whether they ever settle the score or not, that night in Las Vegas remains the most significant tactical upset of this decade.