Virginia is a weird place for a politician. One year it’s the heart of the "Blue Wall," and the next, it’s electing a Republican governor who wears a fleece vest and talks about school boards. So, when people ask did Trump win Virginia, the answer isn't just a simple yes or no—it's a story of how the state has fundamentally shifted over the last decade.
Honestly, if you're looking for the short answer: No, Donald Trump did not win Virginia in 2024. He didn't win it in 2020 either. Or 2016. In fact, Virginia is the only former Confederate state that Trump never carried in any of his three presidential runs.
That’s a pretty wild stat when you think about it.
The 2024 Reality: Why Virginia Stayed Blue
In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris took the state with 51.8% of the vote, while Trump trailed behind at 46.1%. Now, if you look at those numbers and compare them to 2020, you’ll notice something interesting. Trump actually did better this time around. He narrowed the gap. In 2020, Joe Biden blew him out of the water by 10 percentage points. By 2024, that lead shrunk to about 5.7 points.
You’ve probably seen the maps. Most of the state is bright red. Southwest Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, and the Southside are deep Trump country. But Virginia’s elections aren't won in the mountains; they are won in the "Golden Crescent." This is the urban and suburban arc that runs from Northern Virginia (NOVA) down through Richmond and over to Virginia Beach.
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Breaking down the NOVA factor
Northern Virginia is basically a different planet compared to the rest of the Commonwealth. Because of the massive federal workforce and the tech boom in Loudoun and Fairfax, these areas are packed with college-educated voters who, frankly, haven't been fans of Trump's "drain the swamp" rhetoric.
- Fairfax County: A massive Democratic stronghold.
- Arlington: Harris won over 80% here.
- Loudoun County: Once a swing area, now reliably blue.
Trump did make gains in 2024 among Hispanic voters and some working-class demographics in the Hampton Roads area, but it wasn't enough to flip the state. The math just doesn't work for a Republican if they get crushed in the DC suburbs.
Did Trump win Virginia in his previous attempts?
If we look back at 2016, that was probably his best shot. Hillary Clinton won the state by about 5 points. Back then, many people still viewed Virginia as a "purple" swing state. But as the years went on, the state drifted further away from the GOP at the presidential level.
By 2020, the drift was complete. Biden won Virginia so decisively (over 450,000 votes) that many networks called the state shortly after the polls closed. It was a gut punch for the Trump campaign, which had hoped the rural turnout would offset the suburban slide. It didn't.
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The Glenn Youngkin "Glitch"
Wait, didn't a Republican just win the governorship? Yeah, Glenn Youngkin won in 2021. This is why people get confused about whether did Trump win Virginia. Youngkin managed to win by keeping Trump at arm's length while still keeping his base happy. He focused on local issues like "parental rights" in schools and the economy.
But when Trump is actually on the ballot? The dynamic changes. Voters who might support a moderate-sounding Republican governor often revert to voting Democratic when the "MAGA" brand is front and center.
What changed in the 2026 landscape?
As we look at the political fallout in 2026, the data shows that Virginia is firmly a "Blue-leaning" state that occasionally flirts with Republicans. The 2024 results confirmed that the state isn't the battleground it used to be. For a Republican to win here now, they basically need a perfect storm: low Democratic turnout in NOVA and a candidate who appeals to suburban moms in Chesterfield and Virginia Beach.
Trump’s performance in 2024 was actually better than many expected, but the "ceiling" for his support in the state seems to be around 46-47%.
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A quick look at the trends:
- Urbanization: Cities like Richmond and Alexandria are growing. That helps Democrats.
- Education Gap: Virginia has one of the highest concentrations of college degrees in the country. This demographic has moved sharply away from Trump-era Republicanism.
- The Rural-Urban Divide: This is getting wider. The "two Virginias" are real, and they don't talk to each other much at the ballot box.
Actionable Insights for the Future
If you’re trying to track where Virginia goes from here, don't just look at the top-line numbers. Look at the margins in the suburbs.
Watch the "Bellwether" Counties:
Keep an eye on Chesterfield County (outside Richmond) and Loudoun County. If Republicans start winning these by 2-3 points again, the state is back in play. If Democrats keep winning them by double digits, Virginia stays blue.
Track Voter Registration: Virginia has seen a massive surge in automatic voter registration through the DMV. This tends to help the party that performs better with younger, more transient voters—currently the Democrats.
Monitor Federal Employment: In 2026, many voters in Virginia are still reacting to federal policy changes. Any shifts in the "Deep State" or federal workforce directly impact the economy in Northern Virginia, which in turn impacts how those people vote.
The reality is that while the GOP has a path to victory in Virginia, that path doesn't currently go through Donald Trump. The state has moved on to a different kind of politics, one where the suburbs hold all the cards.
Next Steps for You:
Check the official Virginia Department of Elections website for a precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the 2024 results. If you live in Virginia, make sure your registration is updated before the next local cycle, as these off-year elections often have a bigger impact on your daily life than the presidential circus.