If you were watching the map on election night, you probably saw a whole lot of red sweeping across the Midwest. It felt like a massive shift. But then there’s Minnesota. The state has this legendary, almost stubborn streak of voting blue that goes all the way back to 1972. Seriously, even when Ronald Reagan won 49 states in 1984, Minnesota was the one that said, "Nah, we’re good." So, the big question everyone is typing into their phones lately is: did trump win minnesota in 2024?
The short answer is no. He didn’t.
But honestly, that doesn’t even tell half the story. While Kamala Harris took the state’s 10 electoral votes, the margins were a lot tighter than many people expected, especially since she had the state's own governor, Tim Walz, on the ticket with her. You’d think having a "homegrown" VP candidate would lead to a blowout, right? Not exactly.
Did Trump win Minnesota in 2024? Breaking down the final tally
When the dust finally settled and the Minnesota Secretary of State certified the numbers, Kamala Harris ended up with 50.92% of the vote. Donald Trump pulled in 46.68%. If you're doing the math in your head, that's a gap of about 4.2 percentage points.
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To put that in perspective, Joe Biden won the state by about 7 points back in 2020. So, while Trump didn't win the state, he definitely closed the gap. He managed to flip four counties that had previously gone for Biden: Carlton, Blue Earth, Nicollet, and Winona. Seeing Carlton County go red was a big deal—that hasn't happened since 1928. It's wild to think about how much the political "vibe" changed in those areas.
The Walz factor and the "Blue Wall"
People kept talking about the "Blue Wall" throughout the campaign. Minnesota is technically the anchor of that wall. Having Tim Walz on the Democratic ticket was supposed to be the secret sauce to keep rural voters from drifting toward Trump.
It worked in the sense that Harris won, but the "shift" was still there. Nearly every single county in Minnesota shifted at least a little bit to the right compared to four years ago. The only real exceptions were tiny pockets like Cook County way up in the Arrowhead and Lake County. Everywhere else? It got a little bit redder, even in the suburbs.
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Why the numbers looked different this time
Politics in the North Star State is kinda complicated. You have the "Twin Cities bubble"—Hennepin and Ramsey counties—which are deep, deep blue. Harris absolutely crushed it there, winning over 70% of the vote in both. That’s basically where the election is won for Democrats. If you win the cities by enough, the rest of the state almost doesn't matter.
But Trump’s strategy was clearly focused on the "Greater Minnesota" areas. He leaned hard into economic concerns and inflation. Honestly, for a lot of people living in places like Stearns or Wright County, the "Walz brand" of politics felt a bit too disconnected from their day-to-day struggles with grocery prices or gas.
- Hennepin County: Harris 70.2% vs. Trump 27.5%
- Anoka County: Trump 51.0% vs. Harris 46.6%
- St. Louis County: Harris 55.9% vs. Trump 42.2%
You can see the divide right there. Anoka is a suburban/exurban area that Trump managed to hold onto, while St. Louis County (where Duluth is) stayed blue but wasn't as dominant for the Democrats as it used to be.
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Third-party "spoilers" or just noise?
There was a lot of talk about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein potentially shaking things up. In the end, RFK Jr. got about 0.74% and Stein got 0.50%. In a race decided by 4 points, they weren't exactly kingmakers, but they definitely took a slice of the pie that neither major candidate could quite grab.
What this means for Minnesota's future
Minnesota is still "blue," but it’s becoming a much more competitive shade of blue. The fact that the state legislature ended up in a 67-67 tie in the House tells you everything you need to know about how split the state is.
So, if you're wondering did trump win minnesota in 2024, just remember that while he lost the "game," he gained a lot of yardage. The 2026 midterms and the 2028 cycle are likely going to see both parties pouring a lot more money into the state. It’s no longer a "sure thing" for the DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) party.
The political landscape is shifting. Rural areas are consolidating under the GOP banner, while the DFL is becoming more and more reliant on high turnout in Minneapolis, St. Paul, and a few key suburbs.
Actionable insights for following Minnesota politics:
- Watch the margins in the "Donut" counties: These are the counties surrounding the Twin Cities. If Republicans continue to gain ground in places like Dakota or Washington County, the state will become a true toss-up.
- Track the DFL's rural outreach: After the 2024 results, expect the Minnesota DFL to undergo some soul-searching regarding why the Walz presence didn't stop the rightward shift in farm country.
- Keep an eye on special elections: With the state House tied at 67-67, any single seat opening up could shift the entire balance of power in St. Paul.
If you want to stay on top of how these trends are moving, your best bet is to check the official Minnesota Secretary of State's election results portal. They provide the most granular data available, right down to the precinct level, which is where you can see the real stories of how neighborhoods are changing.