The short answer is yes. He didn't just win; he basically steamrolled the competition. If you were looking for a nail-biter in the Sunshine State during the 2024 election, you were looking in the wrong place. Donald Trump didn't just carry his home state—he turned what used to be the nation's biggest swing state into a deep shade of ruby red.
Honestly, the margin was a bit of a shock to the system for anyone still living in the 2000 "hanging chad" era.
The Brutal Numbers: Did Trump Win Florida 2024 by Much?
When the dust settled, the gap between Trump and Kamala Harris was massive. Trump secured approximately 56.1% of the vote, while Harris trailed at 43.0%. That’s a 13-point lead. To put that in perspective, in 2016, Trump won Florida by about 1.2 points. In 2020, he won it by 3.3.
By 2024, the "swing" was gone.
The state is no longer purple. It’s not even "light red." It is firmly Republican territory. For the first time since 1984, a Republican candidate won the state by over a million votes. Specifically, Trump pulled in about 6.1 million votes—the most any single candidate has ever received in Florida's history.
Why the Map Looked So Different
If you look at a county-level map, the transformation is startling.
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Most of the talk leading up to the election was about the I-4 corridor. This is the stretch of land between Tampa and Daytona Beach that historically decided Florida elections. In 2024, that corridor didn't just lean red; it screamed it.
Even more surprising was the shift in South Florida. Historically, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach were Democratic strongholds that balanced out the conservative Panhandle. That balance has effectively collapsed. While Harris narrowly held onto Palm Beach County, the margins there were razor-thin compared to previous cycles.
The Miami-Dade Earthquake
This is the part most people get wrong or don't fully grasp. For decades, the rule of thumb was: "As goes Miami-Dade, so goes the Democratic hope in Florida."
In 2024, Trump flipped Miami-Dade.
He didn't just win it by a hair, either. He won it decisively. This is a county that Hillary Clinton won by 29 points in 2016. The shift among Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban Americans and Venezuelans, wasn't a "drift"—it was a landslide. According to exit polls, Trump won 58% of the Hispanic vote statewide. Among Cuban voters specifically, that number hit a staggering 70%.
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The Democrats' "firewall" in South Florida didn't just leak. It burst.
Registration Trends Nobody Noticed Until Too Late
You can't talk about whether Trump won Florida in 2024 without looking at the math that happened years before the first ballot was cast.
In 2020, Democrats actually had more registered voters in Florida than Republicans—by about 97,000. By the time the 2024 election rolled around, Republicans had a lead of over 1 million registered voters.
That’s a swing of 1.1 million people in four years.
People are moving to Florida in droves, and they aren't bringing "blue" politics with them. The influx of new residents during the pandemic, many of whom were drawn by Governor Ron DeSantis’s policies, completely reshaped the electorate. The "Free State of Florida" branding worked as a massive recruitment tool for the GOP.
What This Means for the Future
Does this mean Florida is "out of play" forever? In politics, "forever" is a dangerous word. But for now, the national Democratic Party seems to be treating it that way. During the 2024 cycle, the Harris campaign spent significantly less on television ads in Florida compared to Pennsylvania or Michigan. They saw the writing on the wall.
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If you’re a Democrat, the "next steps" are basically a complete ground-up rebuild. The Florida Democratic Party, led by Nikki Fried, has been vocal about "hitting the reset button," but that’s easier said than done when you’re facing a Republican supermajority in the state legislature and two GOP senators (Rick Scott also cruised to re-election in 2024 with a 13-point margin).
Key Takeaways for 2026 and Beyond
- The Latino Vote: Republicans have cracked the code in South Florida. The "Hispanic monolith" is a myth, and the GOP has successfully messaged on economic and anti-socialist themes.
- The Demographic Shift: New Floridians are overwhelmingly conservative. This isn't just about people changing their minds; it's about the literal population of the state changing.
- Funding Priorities: Expect national groups to stop pouring money into Florida for presidential cycles, at least for the next decade.
If you want to understand where Florida is heading, keep an eye on the 2026 gubernatorial race. With DeSantis term-limited, the battle to succeed him will be the next litmus test for just how "red" this state really is. Names like Byron Donalds are already floating around, and given Trump's 2024 performance, his endorsement will likely be the golden ticket.
The 2024 results weren't a fluke. They were the culmination of a decade-long shift that has fundamentally altered the American political map. Florida isn't a battleground anymore; it's the headquarters.
If you're tracking these shifts, your best bet is to look at local voter registration updates through the Florida Division of Elections. They release these monthly, and they are the most honest indicator of where the state is going next.