If you were scrolling through social media or refreshing news feeds back in early November, you probably remember that chaotic feeling. One minute a state was "too close to call," the next minute it was "leaning," and then things would just... stall. Specifically, everyone wanted to know: did Trump win Arizona and Nevada this time around?
The short answer is a resounding yes. But the "how" and the "why" are actually way more interesting than just a checkmark on a map.
Honestly, the Southwest was the final piece of the puzzle for the 2024 election. While the "Blue Wall" states like Pennsylvania and Michigan fell relatively early, Arizona and Nevada took their sweet time. It felt like we were waiting forever for Maricopa and Clark counties to finish their math. When the dust finally settled, Donald Trump didn't just squeak by; he pulled off a sweep that surprised a lot of the "experts" who thought these states were becoming permanently blue.
The Arizona Comeback: 11 Electoral Votes Flip Red
Arizona was personal for the Trump campaign. After the razor-thin loss in 2020—remember the whole "Fox News calling it early" drama?—the GOP was obsessed with taking it back. And they did.
Trump won Arizona by a margin of about 5.5%. To put that in perspective, Joe Biden won it by a tiny 0.3% in 2020. This wasn't a fluke; it was a shift. Trump ended up with 1,770,242 votes compared to Kamala Harris's 1,582,860. That's a gap of nearly 188,000 votes.
Why the desert turned red
It wasn't just one thing. It was a perfect storm.
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- The Border: This is Arizona. If you aren't talking about the border, you aren't campaigning. Trump hammered the "border czar" narrative against Harris, and it resonated, even in places you wouldn't expect.
- The Latino Vote: This is the big one. For years, the conventional wisdom was that more Latino voters meant a safer Democratic state. 2024 blew that up. In Arizona, Trump made massive gains with Hispanic men especially.
- Maricopa County: This is where the state is won or lost. Trump managed to win Maricopa by about 3 points. In a county that holds over 60% of the state's population, that's the ballgame.
The Associated Press didn't even call the race until Saturday, November 9th. People were getting restless. But the numbers from the "late mail" ballots—the ones that usually favor Democrats—just weren't high enough for Harris to close the gap.
Breaking the 20-Year Streak in Nevada
If Arizona was a flip, Nevada was a historic breakdown of a Democratic stronghold. Before 2024, a Republican hadn't won Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004. Twenty years!
When people ask did Trump win Arizona and Nevada, they often forget how significant the Nevada win was. He took the state's 6 electoral votes with 50.6% of the vote. Harris trailed with 47.5%.
No Tax on Tips and the Service Economy
You can't talk about Nevada without talking about Las Vegas. The city's economy lives and breathes on the hospitality industry.
Trump made a very specific, very savvy play here: the "No Tax on Tips" pledge. He announced it at a rally in Vegas, and it caught fire. It was so popular that the Harris campaign actually adopted the same policy a few weeks later. But Trump had the "first mover" advantage. For a valet driver or a waitress in Clark County, that policy felt like a direct pay raise.
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Nevada's results were also delayed because the state allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after the election as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. By the time Friday night rolled around, it was clear: the "Silver State" had gone red.
Comparing the Margin: A Clean Sweep
It's wild to think about how different the map looked compared to 2020. Back then, Biden won six of the seven key battlegrounds. In 2024, Trump won all seven. Arizona and Nevada were the final two to be officially "called" by the major networks, cementing a 312 to 226 Electoral College victory.
| State | 2024 Winner | Margin (%) | Electoral Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Trump | 5.5% | 11 |
| Nevada | Trump | 3.1% | 6 |
The swing in Arizona was particularly massive. It was actually Trump's strongest performance of any state that Biden had won four years prior.
The "Nonpartisan" Factor in Nevada
One weird detail about Nevada: it has a massive amount of "nonpartisan" registered voters—over 30% of the electorate. These aren't just "undecideds"; they are people who are fundamentally disillusioned with both parties. In 2024, these voters broke for Trump. They were frustrated with the slow post-pandemic recovery in Vegas and the price of gas in Reno.
What This Means for Future Elections
So, did Trump win Arizona and Nevada for good, or is this a one-time thing? That’s the million-dollar question for 2028.
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Democrats are looking at these results and realizing the "demographics is destiny" argument might be dead. You can't just assume Latino voters or service workers will vote Blue because of identity politics. Economic anxiety—the "cost of eggs" factor—overrode almost everything else in the Southwest.
If you’re trying to keep track of the official records, you can find the certified results on the Arizona Secretary of State and Nevada Secretary of State websites. Everything is finalized now. The electors have met, and the 312-total is in the history books.
How to use this info
If you're following political trends, keep an eye on:
- Voter Registration: Watch if the trend of Hispanics registering as Republicans or Independents continues in Phoenix and Las Vegas.
- Labor Unions: In Nevada, the Culinary Union is a powerhouse. See if their grip on the Democratic vote continues to loosen.
- Migration: People move to Arizona and Nevada for lower costs of living. If those costs stay high, the "incumbent" party—whoever they are—will likely pay the price.
The 2024 results proved that the Sun Belt is no longer a "lean-blue" region. It’s a pure, unpredictable battleground. Trump’s victory there wasn't just a win; it was a total recalibration of the American political map.