If you’re asking did the Broncos beat the Chiefs lately, you’re likely either a glutton for punishment or a hopeful Denver fan looking for a glimmer of light in what has been a very dark decade. For years, this wasn't even a fair fight. It was a rhythmic, seasonal beatdown that made the "Mile High Magic" feel more like a distant memory than a current reality.
But things changed.
The short answer is yes—eventually. On October 29, 2023, the Denver Broncos finally snapped a losing streak that had become the laughingstock of the AFC West. They didn't just win; they suffocated Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a 24-9 victory that felt like an exorcism for the city of Denver. Before that afternoon, the Broncos had lost 16 consecutive games to Kansas City. Sixteen. To put that in perspective, the last time Denver had beaten the Chiefs prior to 2023, Peyton Manning was still under center and Barack Obama was in the White House.
Breaking the Curse: How Denver Finally Did It
It wasn't pretty. It was cold, it was snowy, and it was exactly the kind of gritty football that Sean Payton was hired to bring back to Colorado. When people look back and ask did the Broncos beat the Chiefs during the Patrick Mahomes era, this game is the definitive outlier.
Kansas City walked into Empower Field at Mile High looking like they were on autopilot. Mahomes was battling the flu. The weather was miserable. But more than that, the Broncos defense, led by Vance Joseph, played out of their minds. They forced five turnovers. They held the most explosive offense in football to zero touchdowns. Watching Mahomes scramble for his life while a rejuvenated Denver pass rush swarmed him was a sight most NFL analysts thought we wouldn't see for another five years.
Russel Wilson didn't have to be a hero that day. He just had to not be the reason they lost. He threw three touchdowns, kept the chains moving, and let the defense do the heavy lifting. It was a blueprint.
The 16-Game Shadow
You can't talk about Denver beating the Chiefs without acknowledging the psychological trauma of the "Streak." Between September 2015 and October 2023, Denver fans aged significantly. We saw coaching carousels involving Gary Kubiak, Vance Joseph, Vic Fangio, and Nathaniel Hackett. We saw a parade of quarterbacks—Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater. None of them could solve the puzzle.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, became a dynasty. They didn't just win; they toyed with Denver. Remember the left-handed pass from Mahomes? The miraculous comeback in 2018? The snowy blowout in 2019? For nearly eight years, the answer to did the Broncos beat the Chiefs was a resounding, painful "No."
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The 2024 Heartbreaker: So Close to Two in a Row
If 2023 was the breakthrough, 2024 was the reminder that the Chiefs are basically the final boss in a video game that refuses to let you win. On November 10, 2024, the Broncos had the Chiefs beat. Dead to rights.
Bo Nix, the rookie quarterback who has brought a legitimate sense of hope back to Denver, played a nearly flawless game at Arrowhead Stadium. He was composed. He was accurate. He moved the ball against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that usually eats rookies for lunch. With seconds left on the clock, the Broncos lined up for a 35-yard field goal. A chip shot. Wil Lutz, a veteran kicker, stepped up.
Then, disaster.
Leo Chenal of the Chiefs surged through the line and blocked the kick as time expired. The stadium erupted. The Broncos players collapsed to the turf in disbelief. It was a 16-14 loss that felt worse than a blowout because Denver had outplayed them for 59 minutes and 59 seconds. So, while the scoreboard says they didn't win that day, the performance proved that the gap between these two teams has narrowed significantly.
Why the Rivalry Shifted Under Sean Payton
Payton changed the culture. Period. Under previous regimes, Denver looked intimidated the moment they saw the red jerseys across the field. Now, they look like they belong.
The defense has become one of the most feared units in the league. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in football, and his ability to take away a primary target like Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice has been a game-changer. When the Broncos beat the Chiefs in 2023, it was the first time Mahomes looked genuinely confused by a coverage scheme.
- Defensive Pressure: Denver stopped blitzing blindly and started playing "simulated pressures," dropping linemen into coverage and confusing the Chiefs' offensive line.
- Ball Security: In their wins and close losses, Denver stopped turning the ball over. You can't give Mahomes extra possessions.
- Run Game: Establishing a physical presence with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin has allowed Denver to control the clock, keeping the Chiefs' offense on the sideline.
Historical Context: When Denver Dominated
It’s easy to forget that this rivalry wasn't always so lopsided. In the late 90s and early 2000s, Denver was the bully. John Elway and Mike Shanahan treated the AFC West like their personal backyard.
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There was a stretch in the late 70s and 80s where the Broncos were nearly unbeatable at home. The "Orange Crush" defense made life miserable for Kansas City. If you look at the all-time head-to-head record, the Chiefs lead, but for decades it was a back-and-forth slugfest. The recent 16-game streak was a historical anomaly, a perfect storm of Kansas City drafting a generational talent in Mahomes and Denver falling into a post-Super Bowl 50 coma.
Honestly, the rivalry is better when both teams are good. The NFL is better when Empower Field is rocking and the game actually matters for the playoff standings.
Examining the Mahomes Factor
To understand why it’s so hard for Denver to beat Kansas City, you have to look at the numbers. Patrick Mahomes owns the AFC West. Before the 2023 loss to Denver, he had never lost a road game against a divisional opponent. Think about how insane that is. He had played dozens of games in Denver, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles and had a perfect record.
When people ask did the Broncos beat the Chiefs, they are really asking if Denver found the "Mahomes Antidote."
The answer is that there isn't one. You just have to survive him. Denver’s success in 2023 came from hitting him, making him uncomfortable in the pocket, and capitalizing on rare mistakes. Mahomes is human, but he only shows it when he’s under constant duress.
What the Stats Say About Their Recent Matchups
If you look at the last three meetings, the scoring margin is incredibly thin. We aren't seeing 40-6 blowouts anymore. We are seeing 19-8, 24-9, and 16-14 scores.
Denver has moved toward a defensive-first identity. They aren't trying to out-shoot the Chiefs in a high-scoring track meet. That's a losing game. Instead, they’ve turned these games into mud fights. They shorten the game. They run the ball. They rely on field position.
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Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in Broncos vs. Chiefs Games:
- Turnover Margin: In the 2023 win, Denver was +5. In the 2024 heartbreaker, they were even. If Denver is negative in turnovers, they lose 100% of the time.
- Third Down Conversion: Bo Nix’s ability to scramble for first downs has been the "X-factor." It keeps drives alive and wears out the KC defense.
- Red Zone Efficiency: The Chiefs have struggled in the red zone recently. Denver has taken advantage by forcing field goals instead of allowing touchdowns.
The Future of the Rivalry
We are entering a new era. The Bo Nix vs. Patrick Mahomes era.
Nix has shown he isn't scared. He has the mobility to escape the pocket and the arm talent to make NFL-level throws. Most importantly, he has a short memory. After the blocked field goal in late 2024, he didn't mope. He pointed to the next game. That’s the kind of leadership Denver hasn't had since #18 was taking snaps.
Kansas City is still the king. They have the rings, the quarterback, and the coaching staff. But the aura of invincibility is gone. Denver knows they can beat them because they’ve done it. They know they should have beaten them twice in a row.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you are following this matchup, keep these specific factors in mind for the next time these teams meet:
- Check the Injury Report for the Trenches: Denver’s ability to beat the Chiefs relies entirely on their defensive line. If Zach Allen or DJ Jones are out, Denver loses their ability to collapse the pocket.
- Monitor the Weather: Denver’s altitude and cold late-season weather actually hurt the Chiefs' timing-based passing game more than people realize.
- Watch the "Script": Sean Payton is a master of the first 15 plays. If Denver scores on their opening drive, they usually stay competitive. If they start slow, Mahomes eventually finds a rhythm that is impossible to stop.
- Follow the Betting Lines: The spread has been shrinking. Vegas is starting to realize that Denver is no longer a "trap game" for the Chiefs; they are a legitimate threat.
The question of did the Broncos beat the Chiefs is no longer a joke with a predictable punchline. It’s a serious inquiry about the shifting power dynamics in the AFC West. Denver has proven they have the personnel and the coaching to stand toe-to-toe with the world champions. The "Streak" is dead, and a new, much more competitive chapter has begun.
Keep an eye on the turnover battle and the health of the Denver secondary. As long as Patrick Surtain II is erasing a side of the field, Denver will always have a puncher's chance against Kansas City. The gap has closed, and the next few years of this rivalry look to be some of the best we've seen in decades.
To stay ahead of the next matchup, analyze the pressure rates from the Broncos' front four in their games leading up to the Chiefs' week. If they are averaging more than three sacks per game, the Chiefs' offensive line will be in for a long afternoon. Additionally, track Bo Nix's completion percentage on passes over 15 yards; his growth in the deep passing game is the final piece Denver needs to consistently pull off the upset.