Look at the sky tonight. Somewhere up there, moving at 17,500 miles per hour, is a football-field-sized hunk of metal called the International Space Station (ISS). People are on it. Right now. But for the last few months, the internet has been spiraling over one specific question: did the astronauts make it back to Earth? It depends on which astronauts you’re talking about.
If you mean Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams—the duo who launched on Boeing’s Starliner back in June 2024—the answer is a resounding "not yet." They are still up there. They were supposed to be gone for eight days. It has been months. Space is funny like that. One minute you’re testing a new thruster, and the next, you’re realizing your ride home is basically a "no-go" because of helium leaks and sketchy software.
The Starliner Drama: Why Butch and Suni are Still Up There
NASA doesn't like the word "stranded." They prefer "safe on station."
Honestly, it’s a bit of both. Butch and Suni aren't floating helplessly in a void. They have food. They have oxygen. They even have a pretty decent view of the Nile at night. But the reality is that their original spacecraft, the Boeing Calypso, came back to Earth without them in September 2024. It landed in New Mexico, empty.
Why? Because NASA engineers couldn't guarantee the thrusters would work during the deorbit burn. If those thrusters fail while you’re trying to hit the atmosphere at the right angle, you don't "make it back." You either bounce off into deep space or turn into a shooting star. Neither is a great career move.
What’s the actual plan for them?
They are waiting for SpaceX.
Think about how awkward that is for Boeing. Their rival, Elon Musk’s company, has to come pick up their passengers. The Crew-9 mission launched with two empty seats specifically to bring Butch and Suni home. But they won't be back until February 2025. They’ve effectively become full-time ISS crew members, helping out with maintenance and science experiments while they wait for their Dragon capsule "Uber" to arrive.
Historic Returns: When Things Went South
When people ask "did the astronauts make it back to Earth," they are often thinking about the terrifying close calls from history. We often take reentry for granted. We shouldn't.
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Take Apollo 13. That is the gold standard for "barely making it." An oxygen tank exploded. The Command Module was dying. Jim Lovell, Jack Swigert, and Fred Haise had to use the Lunar Module as a lifeboat. It wasn't designed for that. It was freezing. They were dehydrated. But they did make it back.
Then you have the tragedies.
The crews of Challenger (1986) and Columbia (2003) did not make it back. Challenger never reached orbit; it broke apart 73 seconds after liftoff. Columbia was different. They had finished their mission. They were minutes from landing in Florida. But a hole in the left wing—caused by a piece of foam at launch—allowed superheated plasma to enter the wing during reentry. The ship disintegrated over Texas.
This is why NASA is being so paranoid about the Starliner crew. They’ve seen what happens when you gamble with reentry physics.
Life on the ISS: What "Back to Earth" Really Means
Staying in space for an extra six months isn't just a "long vacation." It wreaks havoc on the human body.
Astronauts lose bone density. Their eyeballs actually change shape because fluid shifts to their heads. This is called SANS (Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome). When they finally do make it back, they often can't walk for a few hours. Their vestibular system—the stuff in the inner ear that tells you which way is up—is totally fried.
- Muscle Atrophy: Even with two hours of exercise a day, you get weak.
- Radiation: You’re getting hit with way more cosmic rays than we are down here.
- Psychology: You are stuck in a tin can with the same five people for 200 days straight.
Frank Rubio currently holds the US record. He went up for a six-month stay and ended up staying for 371 days because a Russian Soyuz craft sprang a leak. He made it back to Earth in September 2023, but he’s gone on record saying if he knew he’d be there a year, he might have turned down the mission. Space is hard on the soul.
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The Russian Situation: Soyuz MS-22 and MS-23
Speaking of leaks, the Russians had their own "did they make it back" scare recently. In late 2022, a micrometeoroid (a tiny piece of space dust) hit the cooling radiator of the Soyuz MS-22.
The coolant sprayed out into space. It looked like a blizzard on the external cameras. Without coolant, the capsule would have baked the astronauts alive during the trip home. Roscosmos ended up sending an empty "rescue" ship (MS-23) to bring Sergey Prokopyev, Dmitry Petelin, and Frank Rubio home.
The old ship? They let it burn up or land autonomously. It was a mess, but it proved one thing: the international community is actually pretty good at pivoting when things break.
The Physics of Reentry: Why It’s So Risky
The reason everyone holds their breath when astronauts try to make it back is the "Blackout Zone."
When a capsule hits the atmosphere, it’s going so fast that it compresses the air in front of it into a ball of plasma. That plasma is hotter than the surface of the sun. It also blocks radio waves. For about six to eight minutes, nobody can talk to the astronauts.
If the heat shield has a crack? Game over.
If the parachutes don't deploy? Game over.
We saw a terrifying version of this with the Soyuz 5 mission in 1969. The service module failed to detach from the reentry capsule. Boris Volynov was hurtling toward Earth with a giant extra piece of hardware stuck to his tail. It meant he hit the atmosphere nose-first instead of heat-shield-first. The smell of burning rubber filled the cabin. Miraculously, the struts holding the extra module melted, it broke away, and the capsule flipped around just in time. He landed so hard he broke his teeth, but he made it back.
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How to Track Their Return
If you are waiting for Butch and Suni to touch down, you’ve got a wait ahead of you.
NASA TV and the SpaceX YouTube channel are the best places to watch. They stream the entire undocking and splashdown process live. It usually takes about 6 to 24 hours from the time they leave the ISS to the moment they hit the water in the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico.
What to look for:
- Undocking: The "goodbye" moment.
- Deorbit Burn: The literal point of no return.
- Plasma Trail: Long-range cameras often catch the streak across the sky.
- Drogue Chutes: Small chutes that stabilize the craft.
- Main Chutes: The "big flowers" that slow it to about 15 mph.
Actionable Steps for Space Enthusiasts
If you're following the saga of whether the astronauts make it back to Earth, don't just wait for the news to tell you what happened. You can be proactive.
Download the "Spot the Station" App
NASA has a free app that tells you exactly when the ISS is flying over your house. Seeing it with your own eyes—a bright, steady light moving faster than any plane—makes the "stranded" narrative feel much more real. You are looking at the home of Butch and Suni.
Monitor the Launch Manifests
Check sites like Spaceflight Now or Ars Technica (specifically Eric Berger’s reporting). They track the "Next Spaceflight" schedules. The return of the Crew-9 Dragon is currently slated for early 2025. Schedules change constantly due to weather, so don't book your "Welcome Home" party just yet.
Understand the Risks of Commercial Space
We are in a transition period. We moved from the Space Shuttle (NASA owned) to the Commercial Crew Program (NASA buys tickets). This is why Starliner’s failure is such a big deal. It’s a blow to the idea that multiple private companies can safely ferry humans. Understanding this context helps you realize that the delay isn't just about a broken part—it's about the future of how we get to orbit.
Check the "NASA Return" Logistics
When Butch and Suni do return, they will likely splash down off the coast of Florida. If you live in the Southeast US, you can sometimes hear the sonic booms as the Dragon capsule slows down. It’s a double "boom-boom" that sounds like distant thunder. Keep an eye on local Florida news when the February 2025 date approaches for precise "audible" zones.
The astronauts will make it back. NASA and SpaceX have the most redundant systems in human history. It’s just going to take a lot longer than anyone planned. Space is patient; we have to be too.