It was the question on everyone's lips as the map turned deep red across much of the country. Did Tammy Baldwin win her seat in the U.S. Senate, or did the massive Republican wave finally wash over Wisconsin’s senior senator? If you followed the 2024 returns, you know it wasn't just a "nail-biter." It was a grueling, multi-day endurance test that kept political junkies staring at the "Blue Wall" until their eyes crossed.
She won. Barely.
The final margin was thin enough to make a campaign manager hyperventilate. Baldwin squeezed out a victory against Republican challenger Eric Hovde, a wealthy businessman who poured millions of his own fortune into the race. The Associated Press officially called the race for Baldwin after a tense Wednesday morning following Election Day. She didn't just win a seat; she survived a political environment that saw her party lose the White House and the Senate majority. It was a brutal cycle.
The Numbers That Defined the Night
Let's talk cold, hard math. In a state that Donald Trump won by roughly 29,000 votes, Tammy Baldwin managed to outrun the top of her ticket. She secured 49.4% of the vote compared to Hovde’s 48.5%. That's a gap of about 29,000 votes—almost the exact mirror image of the presidential margin in the state.
How does that even happen? Honestly, it’s about the "split-ticket" voter. Those elusive, almost mythical creatures who chose Trump for President but Baldwin for Senate.
Wisconsin has always been weird like this. It’s a state where local identity often trumps (no pun intended) national tribalism. Baldwin has spent decades building a brand that feels more "Wisconsin" than "Washington." She talks about dairy farms. She focuses on the "Buy American" Act. She leans into the gritty, industrial reality of places like Kenosha and Oshkosh. While Hovde tried to paint her as a radical leftist, enough voters in the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) and the rural drift apparently decided they trusted her enough to keep her around for another six years.
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Why This Race Was So Expensive
You probably couldn't turn on a television in Green Bay or Milwaukee without seeing a grainy photo of one of these candidates. This was one of the most expensive Senate races in Wisconsin history. National groups dumped hundreds of millions into the state because they knew the path to Senate control ran right through the Madison Isthmus.
Eric Hovde brought a unique challenge. He’s a guy with deep pockets and a background in banking. He attacked Baldwin’s personal life, her partner’s career as a financial advisor, and her record on inflation. Baldwin countered by calling Hovde a "California bank owner" who didn't understand Wisconsin values. It was nasty. It was personal. It was everything people hate about modern politics, yet it was incredibly effective at driving turnout.
The Role of Third-Party Candidates
We have to mention the "spoilers." Or, as some call them, the "choices."
Phil Anderson (Disrupt the Corruption) and Thomas Leager (Economic Freedom) took a combined total of nearly 50,000 votes. In a race decided by 29,000, those votes are massive. Hovde later questioned the legitimacy of some of these candidates, suggesting they were "shams" designed to siphon conservative votes. Whether that's true or just sour grapes, the reality is that those votes came from somewhere, and they didn't go to him.
The Baldwin Strategy: How She Pulled It Off
Baldwin has a specific "secret sauce" that political scientists like University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Barry Burden often point to. She doesn't just hang out in Madison and Milwaukee. She goes to the "Deep Red" parts of the state. She goes to the cranberry bogs. She talks to the paper mill workers.
She focuses on:
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- The "Buy American" ethos: She has consistently pushed for federal projects to use American steel and iron. This resonates in a way that standard partisan rhetoric doesn't.
- Healthcare and the ACA: She reminds voters constantly that she helped write the provision allowing young people to stay on their parents' insurance until age 26.
- The Rural Vibe: Even if they don't agree with her on every social issue, many rural voters see her as someone who actually shows up.
During the 2024 cycle, she stayed laser-focused on these bread-and-butter issues. While the national conversation revolved around high-concept threats to democracy or cultural grievances, Baldwin's ads were often about the price of prescription drugs. It’s boring. It’s repetitive. It works.
Misconceptions About the Win
A lot of people think Baldwin’s win means Wisconsin is "turning blue." That’s a mistake. If anything, this election proved Wisconsin is more purple—and more fractured—than ever. Baldwin won because she is a uniquely strong incumbent with a 25-year head start on brand building. A generic Democrat likely would have lost this seat.
Another misconception? That the city of Milwaukee carried her. While she needed massive turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, she actually won because she stemmed the bleeding in rural counties. She didn't win Crawford or Richland counties, but she performed well enough there to keep the statewide total in her favor. If she had lost those rural areas by 70% instead of 60%, she’d be looking for a new job today.
What Happens Now?
With Baldwin heading back to D.C. for her third term, she finds herself in a very different Senate. The Republicans have the majority. This means her seniority is still valuable, but her ability to pass major legislation is severely curtailed. She’ll likely spend the next few years in "defense mode," trying to protect the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that benefit Wisconsin’s manufacturers.
She also becomes one of the most prominent "survivors" in the Democratic party. Expect to see her name floated for leadership positions or even higher office, though she’s generally seemed content to be the "Senator for Wisconsin" rather than a national figurehead.
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The Hovde Refusal to Concede
For a while after the race was called, there was a lot of noise about a recount. In Wisconsin, a candidate can request a recount if the margin is under 1%. Hovde was right on that line. He initially released a video questioning the integrity of the vote in Milwaukee—specifically the "late-night" dumps of absentee ballots.
However, anyone who knows Wisconsin elections knows that Milwaukee always reports late. It’s a massive city that processes all its absentee ballots at a central location. It’s not a conspiracy; it’s just how the machines work. Eventually, the reality of the math set in. The margin was outside the range where a recount would realistically change the outcome.
Actionable Takeaways for Following Wisconsin Politics
If you're trying to understand if a win like Baldwin's is repeatable or just a fluke of history, keep these specific points in mind:
- Watch the "Margin of Defeat": Don't look at whether a Democrat wins a rural county. Look at if they lost it by less than they did four years ago. That's where Baldwin won the race.
- Incumbency is King: In a polarized world, a familiar face is a powerful shield. Baldwin’s "Tammy" branding is much stronger than the "Democrat" brand in Wisconsin.
- The Ground Game Matters: Baldwin’s team had been on the ground for eighteen months before the election. Hovde, while wealthy, was playing catch-up on the grassroots level.
- Check the Election Commission: For the most accurate, non-partisan data, always go directly to the Wisconsin Elections Commission. They provide the precinct-by-precinct breakdowns that show the real story behind the headlines.
The 2024 Senate race wasn't just a win for Baldwin; it was a masterclass in how to survive a political storm by staying local, staying quiet on the "culture war" noise, and hammering home economic issues that people feel at the grocery store. It wasn't a landslide. It was a grind. But in the end, the answer to the question "did Tammy Baldwin win" remains a definitive yes. She stays in the fight, representing one of the most politically divided states in the Union.
To understand the full impact of this win, you should track the upcoming Senate committee assignments. As a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, Baldwin's influence over where federal money flows remains her greatest lever of power, even in a minority party. Watching how she navigates a Republican-controlled Senate will tell you everything you need to know about her political future.
Next Steps for Political Tracking
- Verify the Canvas: Check the official Wisconsin Elections Commission website for the final, certified precinct-level data to see exactly where the "split-ticket" voters live.
- Monitor Committee Roles: Follow the Senate's reorganization in early 2025 to see if Baldwin retains her influential spots on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee.
- Analyze 2026 Projections: Wisconsin's other seats and the Governor's race will be shaped by the voting patterns established in this Baldwin-Hovde matchup.
The story of Wisconsin politics is never really over; it just takes a short nap between election cycles.