Honestly, if you were watching the returns on election night in November 2024, you probably had a mini-heart attack. It was one of those classic Wisconsin nail-biters that makes everyone question why we even bother with polling anymore. But to give you the short answer right away: Yes, Tammy Baldwin won the election.
She pulled off a victory for her third term in the U.S. Senate. But man, it was tight. We’re talking "whisker-thin" tight.
While the rest of the country seemed to be swinging hard in a different direction, Baldwin managed to hold onto her seat in a state that Donald Trump actually carried. That’s a pretty rare feat in today’s political world where people usually just vote for one party all the way down the ticket.
The Final Numbers: How Tammy Baldwin Won the Election
Let's look at the actual math because the margins are wild. Baldwin ended up defeating her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde, by about 29,000 votes.
In a state where over 3.3 million people showed up to vote, 29,000 is basically a rounding error. Her percentage of the vote was 49.3%, while Hovde sat at 48.5%. That’s a margin of just 0.85%.
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If you compare this to her previous runs, you can see why her team was sweating. In 2012, she won by about 5.5 points. In 2018? She absolutely crushed it with an 11-point lead. Going from an 11-point cushion to less than 1 point tells you everything you need to know about how purple Wisconsin has become.
Why was it so close?
Hovde wasn't exactly a pushover. He’s a wealthy businessman who poured a massive amount of his own money—we’re talking roughly $20 million—into his campaign. The airwaves in Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay were basically 24/7 attack ads for months.
There was also a lot of talk about a third-party candidate, Thomas Leager. He ran under the "America First" banner and grabbed about 28,700 votes. If you’re doing the math at home, you’ll notice that’s almost exactly the margin Baldwin won by. Hovde’s camp was pretty salty about it, claiming Leager was a "plant" designed to siphon off conservative votes. Whether that's true or not, those votes definitely changed the math.
The "Split-Ticket" Magic
Something really interesting happened in Wisconsin that doesn't happen much anymore. People split their tickets.
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Basically, there were thousands of people who walked into a voting booth, checked the box for Donald Trump for President, and then moved down the ballot and checked the box for Tammy Baldwin for Senate.
We know this because Baldwin actually outperformed Kamala Harris in the state. While Harris lost Wisconsin by about 30,000 votes, Baldwin won it by about 29,000. That’s a swing of nearly 60,000 people who decided they liked Trump’s vision for the White House but wanted to keep Tammy in the Senate.
Why? It likely comes down to her "Buy American" brand. She’s spent years visiting rural counties that most Democrats avoid, talking about manufacturing and dairy farms. It seems that "showing up" actually paid off when it mattered most.
The Drama After the Polls Closed
Just because the AP called the race on Wednesday afternoon didn't mean it was over. Not by a long shot.
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Because the margin was under 1%, Hovde had the right to ask for a recount (though he would’ve had to pay for it himself). For about two weeks, things were weird. Hovde released videos questioning the "integrity" of the results, specifically pointing at those late-night ballot drops in Milwaukee.
If you've followed Wisconsin elections before, you know Milwaukee always reports late because they process all their absentee ballots at one central location. It’s not a conspiracy; it’s just how the plumbing of their system works.
Eventually, on November 18, 2024, Hovde finally conceded. He realized a recount wouldn't change 29,000 votes. It just doesn't happen. He didn't sound particularly happy about it, but he acknowledged it was "time to move on."
What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
Since we are now in 2026, we can see the ripple effects. Baldwin is currently serving her third term, which won't end until January 2031. She’s one of the few Democrats left who has a proven "secret sauce" for winning in Trump territory.
What you should keep an eye on moving forward:
- Committee Power: Baldwin is heavily involved in the Senate Appropriations Committee. Watch for how she uses that to bring federal money back to Wisconsin manufacturers—this is her bread and butter.
- The 2026 Midterms: Even though Baldwin isn't up for election this year, her narrow win has given Republicans a blueprint. They know she’s beatable now. Expect them to start grooming a candidate very early for the next cycle.
- Legislative Focus: Keep an eye on her work regarding healthcare costs and dairy subsidies. These were the two pillars that saved her in 2024.
If you’re trying to stay informed on Wisconsin politics, your best bet is to follow the Wisconsin Elections Commission for official data and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for the best boots-on-the-ground reporting. The state is still the ultimate "toss-up," and every vote truly does count there.