Honestly, if you're looking at your screen today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, wondering why the numbers aren't moving, there’s a simple reason. The market is actually closed. It’s the weekend. But that doesn’t mean the financial world is sleeping. Far from it.
While the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq are dark until Tuesday—thanks to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday—the "weekend markets" are screaming. Investors are currently obsessed with one thing: the potential for a massive trade war. President Donald Trump basically lit a match on Saturday, threatening a 10% tariff on eight European countries, including heavyweights like Germany, France, and the UK.
Why? Because he wants them to back his play for Greenland.
It sounds like a movie plot, but the impact is real. IG’s weekend markets are already pricing in a drop. When you ask did stock market close up or down today, the answer is technically about where we left off on Friday, January 16. And Friday was, well, a bit of a dud.
What Happened on Friday?
The final trading session of the week was a classic case of "hurry up and wait." We saw the major indices basically trip at the finish line.
The S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to close at 6,940.01. Not a crash, but definitely not a celebration. The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed suit, dropping 83 points, or 0.2%, to land at 49,359.33. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, which had been flirting with a green finish thanks to some AI hype, ended down 0.1% at 23,515.39.
👉 See also: To Whom It May Concern: Why This Old Phrase Still Works (And When It Doesn't)
It was a week where "record highs" and "political anxiety" were constantly wrestling.
On one hand, you have Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and Nvidia absolutely crushing it. A new U.S.-Taiwan trade deal promised a staggering $250 billion in American semiconductor production. That news sent Super Micro Computer and Micron Technology flying. But then, Washington drama intervened.
Speculation is swirling about who will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May. Trump hinted he might keep Kevin Hassett at the National Economic Council instead of moving him to the Fed. Suddenly, Kevin Warsh looks like the frontrunner. The market sees Warsh as more of a "hawk" (meaning he’s less likely to cut interest rates quickly), and that usually makes investors nervous.
The Greenland Factor and the Tariff Shock
Let's talk about the elephant in the room. The weekend news cycle has been dominated by the "Greenland Tariffs." This isn't just noise. If these 10% levies actually hit on February 1, we are looking at a fundamental shift in transatlantic trade.
European leaders like Sir Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen aren't exactly thrilled. They spent Saturday criticizing the move, calling it a setback for the global economy. Susannah Streeter, a chief investment strategist, described the situation as "migraine-inducing."
✨ Don't miss: The Stock Market Since Trump: What Most People Get Wrong
If you’re holding European stocks or companies with heavy overseas supply chains, Monday (or Tuesday for U.S. traders) could be a wild ride. Gold is already creeping up toward $4,625 an ounce as people scurry toward "safe-haven" assets.
Winners and Losers Under the Surface
Even when the broad indexes are flat or down, some sectors are moving like crazy.
- Space Stocks: AST SpaceMobile jumped over 14% on Friday after snagging a government defense contract. Firefly Aerospace also soared about 12%.
- Health: Novo Nordisk got a massive bump (nearly 9%) because the U.K. approved Wegovy for heart health.
- Banks: This was a mixed bag. PNC beat expectations and rose, but Regions Financial missed the mark and got hammered.
The 2026 Bull Market: Is the Party Ending?
We’ve been in a massive bull run since April 2025. The Nasdaq is up something like 54% in that timeframe. But the "Buffett Indicator"—which compares the total value of the stock market to the GDP—is flashing a bright red warning light.
Right now, that ratio is sitting at 222%.
Warren Buffett once said that when the ratio hits 200%, you’re "playing with fire." The last time it was this high was right before the 2022 bear market.
🔗 Read more: Target Town Hall Live: What Really Happens Behind the Scenes
Does this mean a crash is coming tomorrow? Not necessarily. Markets can stay "irrational" longer than most people can stay solvent. But with the Shiller Piller (CAPE) ratio surging and geopolitical tensions at an all-time high, the margin for error is getting razor-thin.
Why Tuesday Matters More Than Today
Since Monday is a holiday, all eyes are on the Davos World Economic Forum. President Trump is expected to speak there on Wednesday, specifically focusing on housing reform and trade.
Whatever he says will likely dictate the direction of the market for the rest of January. If he doubles down on the tariffs, expect volatility. If he offers some olive branches to the European Union, we might see a relief rally.
Actionable Steps for Your Portfolio
- Check Your Exposure: If 40% of your portfolio is in the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, you’re more vulnerable to a Fed "hawk" than you might realize. Consider if it’s time to rebalance into value or small-caps.
- Watch the 10-Year Treasury Yield: It hit a 4.5-month high of 4.23% on Friday. When yields go up, stocks—especially tech stocks—usually feel the pressure.
- Gold as a Hedge: With the dollar index wavering and trade wars looming, having a small percentage in gold or silver (which hit a record high recently) isn't the "doomsday" move it used to be—it's just practical.
- Earnings Season Prep: We have Netflix, Intel, and United Airlines reporting this week. High volatility is guaranteed.
When people ask did stock market close up or down today, they're usually looking for a simple "yes" or "no." But in January 2026, the answer is wrapped in layers of geopolitical strategy, AI booms, and Federal Reserve musical chairs. Keep your stop-losses tight and your eyes on the headlines coming out of Davos.
For now, take the long weekend to breathe. The charts aren't going anywhere until Tuesday morning. Focus on high-quality companies with real earnings, because "hype" is starting to get very expensive.