The dust has finally settled on the 2024 election, and everyone is asking the same thing: where did all the voters go? If you’ve been doom-scrolling or catching snippets of cable news, you might have heard that the electorate basically shrunk.
It’s a weird feeling. 2020 felt like a fever dream where every single person you knew was at a ballot box or a drop-off site. 2024 felt different. It was quieter in some places, louder in others.
So, did less people vote in 2024?
The short answer is yes. But honestly, it’s not quite as simple as "people stayed home." When we look at the final certified tallies, about 155 million people cast a ballot. That sounds like a massive number because it is. It’s actually the second-highest turnout in over a century. However, when you hold it up against the 158.4 million people who showed up in 2020, we’re looking at a drop of roughly 3 million voters.
The Reality of the 2024 Turnout Drop
To understand why the numbers dipped, you have to look at the turnout rate, not just the raw totals. In 2020, we saw a record-shattering 66.6% of eligible voters participate. In 2024, that rate slipped to approximately 64.1%.
A 2.5 percentage point drop might sound tiny. In a country of 330 million people, it’s a lot.
But here is the kicker: 2020 was an anomaly. We were in the middle of a pandemic, mail-in voting was being blasted to everyone’s house for the first time in many states, and the country was arguably at its highest level of tension in decades. Comparing anything to 2020 is like comparing a normal summer day to a hurricane.
Why the dip happened
Many analysts, including those from Pew Research, noticed a shift in who was motivated. In 2020, the "anti-Trump" sentiment drove massive Democratic turnout. In 2024, that energy seemed to flatline in certain demographics.
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Specifically, young voters—those between 18 and 24—saw a noticeable decline. They were a bigger share of the nonvoter pool this time around, making up about 30% of those who stayed home compared to 25% in the previous cycle.
Did Less People Vote in 2024 in Battleground States?
This is where the story gets interesting. If you lived in a state like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, it probably didn't feel like turnout was down.
Because it wasn't.
While the national average dropped, the "Blue Wall" and the Sun Belt battlegrounds were essentially on fire. People in non-competitive states like Illinois or California might have felt their vote mattered less, leading to lower participation. But in the states that actually decided the Electoral College, the numbers held steady or even climbed.
- Wisconsin: Turnout actually increased to 76.4%, up from 75.3% in 2020.
- Michigan: Saw a jump to 74.7% from 73.5%.
- Pennsylvania: Rose slightly to 71.2%.
- Arizona: This was the outlier, seeing a significant 5-point drop from its 2020 highs.
Basically, if the ads were on your TV every 30 seconds, you probably voted. If you lived in a deep blue or deep red state, you might have decided to sit this one out. Illinois, for instance, recorded over 500,000 fewer votes than it did four years ago. That’s a massive chunk of the national decline right there in one state.
Who Stayed Home and Who Showed Up?
We can't talk about whether did less people vote in 2024 without talking about the "turnout gap" between the parties. Historically, the rule of thumb was "high turnout helps Democrats." 2024 blew that house of cards down.
Donald Trump actually benefited from high participation in specific areas. His campaign specifically targeted "infrequent voters"—people who might skip a midterm or a primary but could be nudged to show up for a general election.
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According to Pew Research Center's validated voter data, Trump’s 2020 supporters were more "loyal" in their turnout. About 89% of people who voted for Trump in 2020 returned to the polls in 2024. For Joe Biden’s 2020 voters, that number was lower, at 85%.
The Hispanic Turnout Shift
The most dramatic demographic story isn't just who they voted for, but who showed up. Hispanic voter turnout saw the largest decline of any major racial or ethnic group. But here’s the twist: the ones who did show up shifted toward Trump in historic numbers.
Among Hispanic voters who sat out 2020 but showed up in 2024, Trump carried them 60% to 37%. It turns out that the people who were "persuaded" to vote this time weren't the traditional Democratic base.
The Age Divide
If you're over 65, you're the MVP of the democratic process. This was the only age group that actually saw higher turnout than in 2020. They reached a staggering 74.7% participation rate. Meanwhile, less than half of the 18-24 crowd bothered to cast a ballot.
Myths vs. Facts: What Most People Get Wrong
There’s this narrative that 2024 was a "low turnout" election. That’s just wrong. Honestly, it's a bit of a reach to call it a decline when it’s still the second or third-highest turnout since 1980.
We’ve just been spoiled by 2020.
Another big misconception is that the "missing" voters were all Harris supporters who were unenthusiastic. While it's true that some Democratic-leaning groups saw a drop, the nonvoter pool in 2024 was actually very split. If every single person who stayed home had been forced to vote, the results likely wouldn't have flipped. Pew’s data shows that 44% of nonvoters actually preferred Trump, while 40% preferred Harris.
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The "missing" 3 million voters weren't a monolith. They were a mix of disillusioned youth, people in "safe" states who felt their vote didn't count, and individuals who simply didn't feel the same existential urgency they felt during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Regional Winners and Losers
While Minnesota (75.9%) and Oregon (75.3%) kept their crowns as turnout kings, other states struggled.
Arkansas had the lowest turnout in the nation at 52.8%. Hawaii followed closely at 50.3%. It’s a stark contrast. In some parts of the country, voting is a cultural staple. In others, it feels like a chore that half the population ignores.
Why 2024 Matters for the Future
The fact that did less people vote in 2024 tells us that the "2020 High" might not be the new normal. We might be settling back into a period where turnout fluctuates based on the candidates' ability to reach outside their base.
Trump proved you can win by activating "low-propensity" voters—people who don't usually care about politics but feel the pinch of inflation or care about a specific cultural issue. Harris, on the other hand, struggled to replicate the broad coalition that Biden built, particularly with men and younger minority voters.
Actionable Insights from the 2024 Data
If you’re a political junkie or just someone who cares about where the country is headed, here’s how to look at these numbers:
- Stop ignoring the "Infrequent Voter": The 2024 results show that the "middle" isn't just undecided voters; it's people who decide whether to vote at all.
- Battlegrounds are a different world: National turnout numbers are a lie if you're trying to predict an election. Look at the swing state margins—they are where the real energy lives.
- Demographics are shifting: The old idea that "higher turnout = Democrat win" is dead. Republicans have found a way to win in high-turnout environments by broadening their appeal to working-class and minority men.
- Youth engagement is failing: Despite all the TikToks and celebrity endorsements, the youngest generation of voters is still the hardest to get to the polls.
What to Do With This Information
If you want to stay ahead of the curve for the 2026 midterms or the next presidential cycle, you should look at your local turnout data. You can find this through your Secretary of State’s website. Compare your county's 2020 numbers to 2024.
If you see a big drop, that’s where the next political battle will be fought. Campaigns will be looking at those "missing" voters and trying to figure out exactly what it takes to bring them back into the fold. Whether it’s better messaging on the economy or a candidate who feels more "authentic," the 3 million people who skipped 2024 are officially the most valuable "swing" group in America.
Check your own registration status early for the next local cycle. Even if the national numbers dipped, the local ones—for school boards and city councils—often matter more for your daily life and usually have even lower turnout, meaning your individual vote has ten times the power.