You probably saw the headlines or heard the chatter. For a few hours there on election night, things felt... weird. If you were watching the live maps, Virginia was looking a lot redder than anyone expected. People were asking, did Harris win Virginia, or was the "Old Dominion" about to pull off the biggest upset of the decade?
Well, the short answer is yes. Kamala Harris did win Virginia. But honestly, the "how" and the "by how much" tell a much bigger story about where the state is heading. It wasn't the blowout many Democrats hoped for, and it certainly wasn't the cakewalk Joe Biden had back in 2020.
The Numbers: How Harris Won Virginia
Let’s look at the hard data first because the margins are where the real drama lives. Kamala Harris ended up taking Virginia’s 13 electoral votes with about 51.8% of the vote. Donald Trump pulled in roughly 46.1%.
On paper, a win is a win. But compare that to 2020. Joe Biden carried the state by a massive 10.1 percentage points. Harris won by about 5.8 points. That is a significant tightening. It’s actually much closer to the margin Hillary Clinton saw in 2016 (5.3 points) than the double-digit lead Democrats have gotten used to recently.
- Total Votes for Harris: ~2,335,395
- Total Votes for Trump: ~2,075,085
- The Gap: Roughly 260,000 votes.
For context, Virginia used to be the ultimate swing state. Then it spent a decade looking like it was becoming a permanent blue fortress. This election proved that while it’s still blue, the "fortress" has some cracks.
Why the Race Felt Closer Than It Was
If you were doom-scrolling on election night, you might remember Trump actually leading in Virginia for several hours. This wasn't a glitch.
Virginia has this habit of reporting its rural, deeply red counties first. Places like the Shenandoah Valley and Southwest Virginia count fast. Those areas went overwhelmingly for Trump. Meanwhile, the "blue wall" of Northern Virginia—Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties—takes forever to report.
When the Associated Press finally called the race for Harris at 8:42 p.m. ET, it was because the math in those Northern Virginia suburbs simply became impossible for Trump to overcome. Even so, the shift was real. In Loudoun County, which has become a symbol of suburban political shifts, Harris underperformed Biden’s 2020 margins by several points.
The "Nova" Factor and the Rural Divide
Virginia is basically two different states at this point. You've got Northern Virginia (NoVa), Richmond, and the Tidewater area (Norfolk/Virginia Beach) acting as the engine for the Democrats. Then you have basically everywhere else.
What’s interesting is that Harris actually held onto some of Biden’s gains in places like Chesterfield County and James City County. She even expanded the lead in a few spots. But the "red shift" happened in the places where Democrats usually dominate. Northern Virginia swung about 8 points to the right compared to 2020.
Why? Exit polls suggest it came down to the "kitchen table" stuff. Even in the wealthy suburbs of Arlington or Alexandria, people were feeling the sting of inflation.
Was Virginia Ever Actually "In Play"?
The Trump campaign certainly thought so. They held a massive rally in Salem right before the election. Governor Glenn Youngkin was out there beating the drum, insisting that Virginia was a "swing state" again.
And look, they weren't entirely wrong. Shaving a 10-point lead down to 5.8 points is a big deal in politics. It shows that Virginia isn't Maryland or Vermont just yet. It’s still a state where a moderate Republican or a struggling Democratic message can change the landscape quickly.
However, the structural advantage for Democrats in Virginia remains the massive population growth in the urban crescent. There are just so many voters in Fairfax and Prince William that the GOP has to win the rest of the state by massive, almost impossible margins to flip the whole thing.
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What This Means for the Future
The fact that Harris won Virginia but by a smaller margin suggests 2026 and 2028 are going to be spicy. Virginia has gubernatorial elections every four years (on the "off" years), and those are usually a bellwether for the national mood.
If you’re looking for actionable takeaways from these results, here’s the deal:
- Watch the Suburbs: The GOP doesn't need to win NoVa to win the state, but they need to keep the margins close. If they keep chipping away at the Democratic lead in Loudoun and Prince William, Virginia returns to "purple" status.
- Turnout is King: Democratic turnout was slightly lower in 2024 than in 2020. In a state like Virginia, when the "Blue Wall" stays home, things get tight fast.
- Local Matters: Keep an eye on the 2025 Governor's race. It will be the first real test of whether the 2024 "red shift" was a fluke or a trend.
The map might look blue today, but the 2024 results proved that no party can afford to take Virginia for granted anymore.