Texas is loud. Politics here? Even louder. If you’ve been scrolling through social media or catching snippets of cable news lately, you’ve probably seen the question popping up: did Cruz win Texas?
The short answer is yes. Ted Cruz won his third term in the United States Senate on November 5, 2024.
He didn't just squeak by, either. Despite the massive amounts of cash flowing into the state from national Democratic groups and the high-energy campaign of his opponent, U.S. Representative Colin Allred, Cruz secured a relatively comfortable margin. He beat Allred by about 8 percentage points. For a state that pundits keep claiming is "turning purple" every two years, that gap felt like a cold splash of water for the Texas Democratic Party. It was a decisive night.
But saying he won is the easy part. The "why" and the "how" are much more interesting because the 2024 race looked nothing like the nail-biter against Beto O’Rourke in 2018. Back then, Cruz barely held on by less than 3 points. This time? He leaned into a different strategy, focused heavily on the border and the economy, and it paid off across demographics that Republicans have historically struggled to capture.
Breaking Down the Numbers: How Ted Cruz Secured His Seat
When we look at the data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office, the shift is pretty stark. Cruz pulled in over 5.9 million votes. Allred trailed with about 5.1 million. If you compare this to the 2018 midterm, Cruz actually grew his coalition.
A huge part of the story—and the reason people keep asking did Cruz win Texas with such surprise—is the Hispanic vote. For decades, the conventional wisdom was that as the Hispanic population in Texas grew, the state would naturally drift toward the Democrats. 2024 blew that theory out of the water. Cruz made massive gains in the Rio Grande Valley. Counties that have been blue for a century shifted toward the GOP. It turns out that issues like oil and gas jobs, border security, and religious values resonated more with South Texas voters than the social messaging coming from the D.C. wing of the Democratic party.
Colin Allred was a formidable opponent. He’s a former NFL player, a moderate, and he ran a very disciplined campaign. He tried to frame Cruz as being more interested in his podcast, "Verdict with Ted Cruz," than in the actual business of Texas. He hammered Cruz on the infamous Cancun trip during the 2021 power grid failure. Honestly, for a while, it looked like it might work. Allred raised over $80 million, outraising Cruz for several quarters. But at the end of the day, the "R" next to Cruz's name and the overall national shift toward the right were too much to overcome.
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The Border and the Economy: The Twin Engines of the Cruz Campaign
If you watched any TV in Texas during October 2024, you saw the ads. They were relentless. Cruz focused on two things: the border and transgender athletes in sports.
The border issue is visceral in Texas. Whether you live in El Paso or a suburb of Dallas, the record-high migrant encounters during the Biden-Harris administration were a top-of-mind concern. Cruz positioned himself as the hardliner. He talked about "the invasion" constantly. While Allred tried to pivot toward a "tough but fair" border stance, many voters saw him as part of the administration they blamed for the chaos.
Then there was the economy. Inflation has been a nightmare for families from Houston to Lubbock. Cruz hammered the message that "Bidenomics" was failing Texas. He spoke to the blue-collar workers in the Permian Basin, promising to protect the energy industry from "Green New Deal" policies. In a state where the oil and gas sector is the heartbeat of the economy, that message is gold. It’s hard to convince a rig worker to vote for a party that they perceive as wanting to phase out their job.
The Suburban Shift That Didn't Quite Happen
For years, the "Blue Texas" dream relied on the "Golden Triangle"—the area between Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio. The idea was that as suburban moms and college-educated professionals moved into these areas, they would flip the state.
And look, the suburbs are getting more competitive. Tarrant County (Fort Worth) and Williamson County (North of Austin) are no longer the GOP strongholds they used to be. But in 2024, the "red wave" among rural and South Texas voters was so strong it effectively built a wall around the urban Democratic gains. Cruz didn't need to win Austin; he just needed to not lose the suburbs by too much while running up the score in the 200+ rural counties that make up the vast majority of Texas’s geography.
He succeeded.
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Actually, he did more than succeed. He showed that he could adapt. The 2018 Ted Cruz was seen by some as abrasive and overly ideological. The 2024 Ted Cruz tried—at least a little bit—to show a more "Texan" side, focusing on bipartisan legislative wins like the I-27 expansion project. It gave enough cover for moderate voters who might not like his personality but preferred his policy outcomes over the alternative.
Did Cruz Win Texas Because of the Top of the Ticket?
It’s impossible to talk about the Cruz victory without mentioning Donald Trump. Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. That’s a massive margin.
There’s a concept in politics called "coattails." Basically, when the person at the top of the ballot wins big, they pull the people below them across the finish line. Cruz actually ran behind Trump. This suggests there is still a "Cruz-skeptic" segment of the Republican electorate—people who voted for Trump but either skipped the Senate race or voted for Allred.
However, the massive turnout for Trump undoubtedly helped Cruz. When millions of voters show up to support the President, they usually just check the box for the rest of the Republicans on the list. Allred needed a lot of "split-ticket" voters to win. He needed people to vote for Trump and then switch to him for Senate. While some did, it wasn't nearly enough to bridge an 8-point gap.
The Financial Arms Race
Let's talk about the money. It was insane.
This was one of the most expensive Senate races in American history. We’re talking hundreds of millions of dollars spent on 30-second spots, mailers that go straight to the trash, and digital ads that follow you around the internet.
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- Democratic Spending: National groups saw Texas as their best "offensive" opportunity. They poured money into Allred, hoping to decapitate one of the most famous Republicans in the country.
- Republican Defense: Cruz is a fundraising machine himself. He’s spent years building a grassroots donor base. Plus, Super PACs aligned with Mitch McConnell and the national GOP stepped in when the polls looked tight in September.
All that money essentially resulted in a stalemate of information. Both sides were so loud that they likely canceled each other out, leaving voters to fall back on their partisan identities and their feelings about the state of the country.
What Happens Now?
Ted Cruz is now set to remain in the Senate until 2031. This gives him immense seniority. He is currently the Ranking Member (and likely future Chairman) of the Senate Commerce Committee. This matters for Texas. It means he has a direct hand in NASA funding, transportation projects, and tech regulation.
For the Democrats, the 2024 result is a moment of reckoning. They’ve spent over a decade promising that Texas is "in play." After the Allred defeat, many are wondering if the state is actually trending further away from them. If they can’t win with a candidate as "perfect" on paper as Colin Allred—a moderate, former athlete, with a massive war chest—who can they win with?
Some analysts argue that the party needs to stop focusing on the suburbs and start figuring out how to talk to Hispanic men in the Rio Grande Valley. Others think the state is simply too expensive to flip and that national money should be spent elsewhere, like North Carolina or Georgia.
Practical Takeaways for the Next Election Cycle
If you're following Texas politics, keep these points in mind for the 2026 gubernatorial race and beyond:
- Demographics aren't destiny. The idea that a browner Texas is a bluer Texas has been proven wrong. Culture and economics are trumping ethnic identity at the ballot box.
- The "Energy Wall" is real. Any candidate who is perceived as a threat to oil and gas will have a ceiling in Texas that is likely below 48%.
- Rural turnout is the GOP's secret weapon. While cities get the headlines, the sheer volume of votes coming from small towns is what keeps Texas red.
- The "Cancun" narrative has limits. Voters might be annoyed by personal scandals or optics, but when they enter the voting booth, they usually prioritize their pocketbooks and their sense of security.
So, did Cruz win Texas? He did. And he did it by leaning into the national shift toward populism and by convincing enough Texans that, despite his polarizing personality, his policies were a better fit for the Lone Star State than the alternative. Whether you love him or hate him, Ted Cruz has proven once again that he is one of the most resilient survivors in American politics.
Moving forward, the focus shifts to how Cruz uses his renewed mandate. With a Republican majority in the Senate and a Trump presidency, Cruz is no longer just a "bomb-thrower" in the minority. He’s now in a position of significant power to shape federal policy. Texans—and the rest of the country—will be watching closely to see if he focuses on legislating or continues his role as a leading voice in the national culture war.
To stay informed on the actual impact of these results, you should track the upcoming Senate committee assignments. These roles determine which Texas infrastructure projects get greenlit and how much federal oversight is applied to the state's booming tech and energy sectors. Following the official Senate floor records rather than just social media clips will give you the real story of how this win translates into policy.