If you’ve been scrolling through news feeds lately or catching up on Pennsylvania politics, you’re likely seeing one name everywhere: Bob Casey. The question is simple. Did Casey win in PA? Honestly, the answer is a bit of a gut punch for the state's Democratic establishment. He didn't.
After a marathon of counting, legal bickering, and an automatic recount that felt like it would never end, incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. conceded the race to Republican challenger Dave McCormick. It was a close one. Historically close. We’re talking about a margin of roughly 16,000 votes in a state where nearly seven million people showed up to the polls. That’s a razor-thin gap that kept everyone on edge for weeks after the November 5, 2024, election.
The Wild Road to a Concession
For a while, it looked like we might be headed for a long winter of litigation. On election night, things were too murky to call. Then the Associated Press stepped in on November 7 and called it for McCormick. Casey didn't budge. He pointed to the 100,000-plus ballots—provisional, military, and overseas—that hadn't been tallied yet. He wanted every single voice heard, which is pretty standard for a guy who has been in the Senate since 2007.
But the math just didn't want to cooperate.
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As the days crawled by, the gap narrowed but never flipped. Because the margin stayed within 0.5%, Pennsylvania law triggered an automatic statewide recount. This wasn't just a suggestion; it’s a legal requirement that costs taxpayers over $1 million. Critics on the right were fuming, calling it a waste of money, while Democrats insisted on the sanctity of the process. Interestingly, Dave McCormick himself had been in this exact position back in 2022 when he lost a primary to Dr. Mehmet Oz and didn't waive the recount then either. Politics has a funny way of coming full circle.
Why the Recount Flopped for Casey
Recounts rarely change the winner. They usually just shift a few dozen votes here or there. According to data from FairVote, out of thousands of statewide races since 2000, only a tiny handful have ever been reversed by a recount. Most of those reversals happened when the initial margin was less than 0.06%. Casey was trailing by about 0.24% when the recount got moving.
Basically, he needed a miracle.
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The Pennsylvania Supreme Court also handed him a major setback. They ruled that counties could not count mail-in ballots that lacked a correct handwritten date on the return envelope. That decision basically sealed the deal. By November 21, 2024, Casey realized the path was gone. He released a video conceding the race and called McCormick to congratulate him.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Results
People often think these losses happen in a vacuum, but Casey was fighting some serious headwinds.
- The Trump Factor: Casey had never actually been on the same ballot as Donald Trump before. In 2018, he cruised to victory. But 2024 was a different beast. Trump won Pennsylvania by about 2%, and that momentum was a massive lift for McCormick.
- Scranton Pride vs. Wall Street: Casey is the son of a legendary governor and is basically synonymous with Scranton. McCormick was hammered as a "carpetbagger" from Connecticut. Yet, the "outsider" message resonated more with voters worried about inflation and the border than the "hometown favorite" legacy did.
- The Money: This was the second-most expensive Senate race in the country. We’re talking hundreds of millions of dollars in ads. You couldn't turn on a TV in Pittsburgh or Philly without seeing a McCormick ad blaming Casey for "Biden’s inflation."
The final certified numbers show McCormick with 3,399,295 votes (48.8%) and Casey with 3,384,180 (48.6%). It was a heartbreaker for the Casey family, ending a decades-long streak of statewide wins.
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What This Means for You Now
Now that the dust has settled, the balance of power in the Senate has shifted. With McCormick’s win, Republicans secured a 53-47 majority. This changes everything from judicial appointments to how tax bills get written. If you're wondering "did Casey win in PA" because you're tracking specific legislation, the reality is that the "Scranton slide" has officially stopped.
McCormick is now seated and focused on things like energy production and border security, which were the pillars of his campaign. For Casey, it’s the end of an era. He gave a final floor speech recently, looking back on a career defined by being "pro-life" (at least originally) and a "champion for children."
Steps to Stay Informed on PA Politics
If you want to keep track of how this change impacts your life in Pennsylvania, here is what you should actually do:
- Monitor the Senate Committee Assignments: See where McCormick lands. If he gets on the Finance or Energy committees, that's where the real power over PA’s economy lies.
- Watch the 2026 Cycle: The state legislature and several high-stakes offices are up for grabs next. The 2024 results suggest Pennsylvania is leaning more "red" than it has in years, but that can flip fast.
- Check Your Registration: If you were one of the people whose provisional ballot didn't count because of a signature error, go to the PA Department of State website. Make sure your info is 100% correct so there's no drama next time.
The 2024 Senate race wasn't just a vote; it was a vibe check for the entire state. Casey didn't win, but the fight over how we count those votes will likely change PA election laws for years to come.