If you’d asked anyone in Canada back in late 2024 who the next Prime Minister would be, they would’ve said Pierre Poilievre. No question. The polls were a bloodbath for the Liberals. People were fed up with the "broken" Canada narrative, and Poilievre was riding a wave of populist energy that looked unstoppable.
Then everything flipped.
So, did Carney beat Poilievre? Yes, Mark Carney led the Liberal Party to a win in the April 28, 2025, federal election. But it wasn't a total knockout. It was more like a messy, split-decision victory that has left the country in a weird state of political limbo ever since.
The Night the Map Turned Red (Barely)
On election night, the numbers were tight enough to make anyone’s head spin. Mark Carney’s Liberals walked away with 169 seats. That’s enough to govern, but it fell short of the 172 needed for a "we-can-do-whatever-we-want" majority.
Poilievre’s Conservatives didn’t exactly crumble, either. They took 144 seats and actually won a huge chunk of the popular vote—around 42%. Honestly, it’s one of those classic Canadian moments where the guy who got the most individual votes across the country still lost the job because of how the ridings are carved up. Poilievre conceded, sure, but he didn't go quietly. He’s spent the last few months basically saying Carney doesn’t have a real mandate.
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Why the "Carney Effect" Worked
You’ve gotta wonder how a guy who had never held elected office before March 2025 managed to take down a career politician like Poilievre. Basically, it came down to a "vibe shift."
- The Trump Factor: When Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. election and started talking about massive tariffs and "breaking" trade deals, Canadians got nervous.
- The "Adult in the Room": Carney played the "steady hand" card perfectly. While Poilievre was fiery and aggressive, Carney leaned into his resume as the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
- The Policy Pivot: One of Carney's first moves was killing the consumer carbon tax while keeping the rebates—a move that snatched one of Poilievre’s biggest talking points right out of his hands.
Is Poilievre Actually Done?
Not even close. If you look at the polling from late 2025 and early 2026, Poilievre is still incredibly popular with his base. A Léger poll from December 2025 showed that 78% of Conservative voters want him to stay as leader.
But here is the kicker: outside of the Conservative bubble, people really don't like him. His "dissatisfaction" rating among non-Conservative voters is huge. Carney, meanwhile, has been pulling support from NDP and even some Bloc Québécois voters who just want stability.
The Floor-Crossing Drama
Since the election, things have gotten even weirder. Carney has been working the room. In late 2025, two Conservative MPs—Michael Ma and Chris d'Entremont—actually crossed the floor to join the Liberals.
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That’s a big deal.
It means Carney is now just one seat away from a majority. Poilievre has called this "manipulation" and "anti-democratic," but in the world of Ottawa politics, a seat is a seat. It’s made the House of Commons a very tense place to be lately.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Result
A lot of folks think Carney won because Canadians suddenly fell in love with the Liberal Party again. That’s not really it. If you dig into the Abacus Data research from July 2025, it shows that voters were mostly looking for "reassurance over disruption."
Poilievre’s brand was all about disruption. He wanted to "fire the gatekeepers" and shake things up. In a vacuum, that worked. But when the global economy started looking shaky with the U.S. trade war looming, "shaking things up" started to sound a lot like "making things worse" to the average voter in suburban Ontario and BC.
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Carney didn't win because he was a thrill. He won because he was perceived as a safe harbor in a storm.
The Road to 2026: What Happens Now?
We are currently in a "fragile yet stable" period. Carney is trying to build a new majority through individual MP defections rather than another election. Poilievre is heading into a leadership review in Calgary at the end of January 2026.
The biggest thing to watch is the CUSMA (trade deal) renegotiation. Trump is breathing down Canada's neck, and Carney is betting his entire premiership on being the guy who can negotiate his way out of a trade war. If he fails? Poilievre will be right there to say "I told you so."
Actionable Insights for Following the Fallout:
- Watch the Calgary Convention: This month's Conservative gathering will determine if Poilievre keeps his job or if the party moves toward a more "moderate" alternative to compete with Carney’s centrist appeal.
- Monitor the Seat Count: Keep an eye on any more "floor crossings." If Carney gets one more MP to switch sides, he won't need the NDP or the Greens to pass his 2026 budget.
- Track the Tariffs: The real battle isn't in Ottawa; it's in Washington. The success or failure of Carney’s trade talks will likely dictate the next election's outcome.
Carney beat Poilievre in the short term, but the "Poilievre movement" isn't dead. It’s just waiting for the "steady hand" to slip.
Next Steps to Stay Informed:
To keep a pulse on this, you should check the weekly seat projections on 338Canada, as the minority government’s stability changes every time an MP sneezes. You might also want to look into the specifics of the "Carney Major Projects" plan announced last November, as that's the primary legislation Poilievre is currently trying to block in the House.