Politics in Virginia used to be a predictable, sleepy affair. For decades, it was a reliable red wall for the GOP. But then things started shifting, and everyone began asking the same question: did Biden win Virginia? Honestly, the answer depends on which election year you're staring at, because the Commonwealth has been through a bit of a whirlwind lately.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden didn't just win Virginia; he absolutely crushed it. He pulled in 54.1% of the popular vote, leaving Donald Trump at 44.0%. That 10-point margin was the best a Democrat had done in the state since FDR back in 1944. It wasn't even particularly close. By the time the Associated Press called the race at 7:47 PM on election night, the narrative was set. Virginia was no longer a "swing state"—it looked like a blue stronghold.
The 2024 Twist You Might Have Missed
Fast forward to the 2024 cycle. Things got a little weird. If you're looking for Joe Biden's name on the 2024 general election results, you won't find it. Biden actually won the Virginia Democratic Primary on Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024) with a massive 88.5% of the vote. He swept every single one of the 11 congressional districts.
But as we all know, he stepped aside later that summer. So, in the 2024 general election, it wasn't Biden on the ballot—it was Kamala Harris. She kept the streak alive, winning Virginia's 13 electoral votes with 51.8% of the vote. However, the margin shrunk. She won by about 5.8 points, which is a noticeable dip from Biden’s double-digit blowout four years earlier.
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How the "Blue Wall" Was Built in the Suburbs
You’ve gotta look at Northern Virginia (NOVA) to understand how this happened. Places like Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William used to be Republican territory. Not anymore.
Biden’s 2020 victory was built on these massive suburban margins. In Fairfax County alone, he took nearly 70% of the vote. In Arlington, he hit a historic 80.6%. Basically, the growth of the federal workforce and a massive influx of highly educated voters turned the "Old Dominion" into a "New Blue" reality. Interestingly, Biden became the first Democrat to ever win the state without carrying places like Nelson County or Covington. He didn't need the rural bellwethers because the suburbs were so lopsided.
Why the GOP Still Thinks They Have a Shot
Even though Democrats have won every presidential race in Virginia since 2008, Republicans haven't packed up and gone home. Honestly, they’ve had some decent wins lately.
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- The 2021 Governor Race: Glenn Youngkin proved a Republican could still win statewide, tapping into parental rights and education issues.
- The 2024 Shrinkage: Trump actually improved his performance in Virginia in 2024 compared to 2020, even though he still lost the state to Harris.
- Rural Dominance: Outside of the "Golden Crescent" (Northern Virginia down to Richmond and over to Virginia Beach), the state remains deep red.
It’s a tale of two Virginias. You have the urban/suburban hubs that are deep blue and the rural counties that feel completely left behind by the current Democratic platform.
The Logistics: How the Votes Were Counted
Back in 2020, there was a lot of noise about the "Red Mirage." On election night, early returns actually showed Trump leading. Why? Because Virginia counts its in-person Election Day votes first. Those tend to come from more rural, Republican-leaning areas.
The mail-in and absentee ballots, which leaned heavily toward Biden, took longer to process. Once those NOVA numbers started dropping late in the night, Biden’s lead ballooned. By 2024, the state had smoothed out some of these processes, but the geographic divide remained just as sharp.
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Actionable Insights for Virginia Voters
If you're trying to keep track of where the state is headed, keep an eye on these specific indicators:
- Check Your Registration: Virginia has moved to automatic voter registration through the DMV, but it's always smart to verify your status on the Virginia Department of Elections website before any deadline.
- Watch the 2025 Gubernatorial Race: This will be the next big test. With Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears likely facing off, we'll see if the "Biden margin" returns or if the state continues to drift back toward the center.
- The NOVA Factor: If a Democratic candidate's margin in Fairfax County drops below 65%, they are usually in big trouble statewide. That’s the "canary in the coal mine" for Virginia politics.
So, did Biden win Virginia? Yes, decisively in 2020 and in the 2024 primary. But the state is far more complicated than a simple blue map suggests. It's a high-stakes tug-of-war that changes with every zip code you cross.