Honestly, if you spent any time watching the news back in November 2024, you probably remember the sheer tension surrounding the Southwest. Everyone was asking the same thing: did Arizona go for Trump or was it going to stay blue like it did in 2020? For days, the map just sat there, a stubborn shade of yellow while officials in Maricopa County painstakingly worked through a mountain of ballots.
The short answer is yes. Donald Trump didn't just win Arizona; he kind of dominated compared to the razor-thin margins we saw in the previous cycle.
He managed to flip the state back into the Republican column, securing all 11 of its electoral votes. This was a massive deal because it completed his sweep of all seven key battleground states. When the Associated Press finally called the race on November 9, 2024, it was the definitive end to the 2024 presidential election narrative.
The Numbers That Mattered
Let's look at the actual math. Trump pulled in about 1,770,242 votes. That gave him 52.2% of the total share. Kamala Harris trailed behind with 1,582,860 votes, sitting at roughly 46.7%.
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If you compare that to 2020, the shift is pretty wild. Joe Biden won the state by about 10,457 votes—a margin so small it basically caused a multi-year political earthquake. Fast forward to 2024, and Trump’s margin of victory grew to over 185,000 votes. That is roughly a 5.5% lead. It was the strongest performance for a Republican in the Grand Canyon State since 2012.
Why the Shift Happened
People love to overcomplicate politics, but in Arizona, it mostly came down to a few big things: the border, the price of groceries, and a significant shift in how Latino voters felt about the two parties.
- The Economy: Exit polls and surveys from groups like AP VoteCast showed that a huge chunk of Arizonans felt the economy was "fair" or "poor." When people are paying way more for rent in Phoenix or gas in Tucson, they tend to vote for change.
- Immigration: Being a border state, this is never just a "talking point" here. It’s a daily reality. Trump leaned hard into his border security message, and it resonated, even in places where Democrats expected to do better.
- The Latino Vote: This is probably the biggest story. Trump made massive gains with Hispanic men in particular. In a state where about a third of the population is Latino, even a small percentage shift can flip the entire result.
Did Arizona Go for Trump Everywhere?
Not exactly. Arizona is basically two different states politically. You have the massive urban hubs and then the rest of the state.
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Maricopa County is the big one. It holds over 60% of the state's population. In 2020, Biden flipped it. In 2024? It went back to Trump by about 3 points. When you win Maricopa, you almost always win the state. It’s that simple.
However, Harris still held onto Pima County (home to Tucson) and Coconino County (Flagstaff). She also won in Apache and Santa Cruz counties. But those wins weren't nearly enough to offset the red wave that hit the rural areas and the suburbs surrounding Phoenix.
The Weird "Split-Ticket" Phenomenon
Here is a detail that confuses a lot of people: while Trump won the state handily, Arizona also elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. Ruben Gallego defeated Kari Lake in the same election cycle.
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This means thousands of Arizonans walked into a booth, picked Donald Trump for President, and then immediately picked a Democrat for Senate. It shows that Arizona voters aren't just blindly following a party line. They are picky. They liked Trump’s policies on the economy or the border, but they weren't necessarily sold on the entire Republican ticket.
What This Means for the Future
Arizona isn't "red" or "blue" anymore. It’s purple and very, very unpredictable. The 2024 results proved that the state is willing to flip-flop based on the candidate and the current mood of the country.
If you are trying to keep track of where things stand now, the best move is to look at the certified data from the Arizona Secretary of State. They have the final, verified breakdowns for every precinct.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
- Check the official tallies: Visit the Arizona Secretary of State’s website to see the granular data of how your specific neighborhood voted.
- Monitor voter registration: Arizona has a huge number of "Independent" or "Other" voters. Watching which way these registrations trend in 2025 and 2026 will tell you more about the next election than any poll ever could.
- Follow local reporting: Outlets like the Arizona Republic or KJZZ often catch the subtle shifts in suburban voting patterns long before national news picks them up.