Brad Holmes doesn't panic. That’s been the mantra in Allen Park for years now. But as we stare down the barrel of the Detroit Lions 2025 free agents list, even the most "Villain" hoodie-wearing fans have to admit things feel a little different this time around.
The honeymoon phase of the rebuild is over. Now, it’s about math.
Honestly, the Lions have spent the last few seasons in a rare NFL sweet spot where their best players—Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Aidan Hutchinson—were playing on rookie deals. Those days are gone. The massive extensions for Jared Goff and the core mean the front office has to be surgical with who they keep and who they let walk.
Why Carlton Davis III is the Elephant in the Room
If you ask ten Lions fans who the most important free agent is, nine of them will say Carlton Davis III. The tenth person probably isn't watching the games.
Davis was brought in to be the "CB1" this team hasn't had since... well, let's not bring up the Matt Patricia era. When he’s on the field, the secondary looks like a unit that can actually compete with the elite NFC offenses. But there’s a catch. There’s always a catch.
Davis is looking at a market that is absolutely starving for veteran corners. You've got teams with way more cap space than Detroit ready to throw $18-20 million a year at a guy with his resume. Can the Lions afford that?
Maybe. But should they?
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With Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. gaining experience, Brad Holmes might decide that the $15 million+ required to keep Davis is better spent elsewhere. It’s a classic "heart vs. head" situation. Keeping him solidifies the defense for a 2026 run, but letting him walk might be the only way to pay the guys coming up for extensions next year.
The Al-Quadin Muhammad Phenomenon
Nobody expected Al-Quadin Muhammad to become the "soul" of the pass rush when he signed a one-year flyer.
He didn't just play well; he basically saved the season when the depth behind Hutchinson looked thin. Coming off an 11-sack season in 2025, Muhammad has gone from a "roster filler" to a guy who is going to get paid.
Spotrac has his market value hovering around $8.2 million annually. For a guy who will be 31 when the 2026 season kicks off, that’s a tough pill for the Lions to swallow.
Other Defensive Names to Watch
- Levi Onwuzurike: The comeback story of the century. After years of back issues, he finally looked like the second-round pick he was meant to be. He’s a UFA, and while the Lions love him, another team might overpay for that interior pass-rush upside.
- Derrick Barnes: He’s the glue. Barnes plays the SAM linebacker spot better than anyone else on the roster, and his versatility in Aaron Glenn’s scheme is hard to replace.
- Ifeatu Melifonwu: This one hurts. Melifonwu is a human highlight reel when healthy, but the "when healthy" part has been the story of his career.
Is the Offensive Line About to Get a Face-Lift?
We’ve been spoiled. For years, the Lions' offensive line has been a top-three unit in the league. But the Detroit Lions 2025 free agents cycle is putting that continuity at risk.
Kevin Zeitler was a godsend. He stepped in and played like he was 25 again. But he’s not. He’s 35.
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If Zeitler retires or moves on, and with the rumblings about Taylor Decker’s future (more on that in a second), the Lions could be looking at replacing two or three starters on the line. That is terrifying for a quarterback like Jared Goff, who needs a clean pocket to operate.
"The Lions can save $18.2 million by cutting Taylor Decker with a post-June 1 designation," per recent cap projections.
That is a massive chunk of change. If Holmes decides the drop-off in Decker’s play—he fell to 43rd in pass block win rate last season—is too steep, we might see a very different-looking front five in 2026.
The Skill Position Shuffle
Don't forget about the "other" guys. Tim Patrick was a "pleasant surprise," to put it mildly. He gave Goff a big-bodied target that this offense lacked after Josh Reynolds left. Bringing him back on a cheap one-year deal seems like a no-brainer, but Patrick might want one last decent multi-year contract before he hangs it up.
Then there's Craig Reynolds. "Netflix" is a fan favorite for a reason. He’s the ultimate professional, a special teams ace, and a guy who can get you four yards when the starters are gassed. He’s a Restricted Free Agent (RFA), so Detroit has control, but these are the types of depth pieces that make or break a playoff run.
The Brutal Reality of the 2026 Salary Cap
Right now, the Lions are projected to be about $5-7 million over the cap for 2026.
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Wait. Don't panic yet.
NFL cap numbers are basically suggestions. Between restructuring Goff's deal—which could open up nearly $40 million—and potential cuts like Decker or even Frank Ragnow (if his injuries become too much), the Lions can get to $50 million in space easily.
But just because you can create space doesn't mean you should spend it all on free agents.
Brad Holmes is playing the long game. He knows that in 12 months, he has to have the cash ready to make Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta the highest-paid players at their positions. Every dollar he spends on a veteran cornerback or edge rusher today is a dollar he doesn't have for the "core" tomorrow.
Actionable Strategy for the Offseason
If you’re a Lions fan, here is what you should be watching for as the free agency period opens:
- The Decker/Zeitler Decision: If the Lions move on from both, expect a massive offensive line focus in the first two rounds of the draft.
- The "Third Edge" Pursuit: Even if they keep Muhammad, they need a "mercenary" like Joey Bosa or Joseph Ossai on a one-year deal to take the pressure off Hutchinson.
- The CB1 Pivot: If Carlton Davis walks, the Lions must sign a "bridge" veteran. They cannot go into the season relying entirely on sophomores, no matter how talented Arnold and Rakestraw are.
The window is wide open. But the transition from "the team everyone is rooting for" to "the team everyone is trying to build like" is a messy, expensive process. The Detroit Lions 2025 free agents are the first real test of whether this front office can handle the burden of success.
Keep an eye on the legal tampering period in March. That's when we’ll find out if the Lions are still building or if they're finally ready to push all the chips into the middle.
Next Steps for Lions Fans:
Check the official NFL transactions wire starting March 10th for the "SAM" linebacker tenders. If the Lions don't tender Derrick Barnes immediately, it’s a massive signal that they are looking to get younger and cheaper at the second level of the defense.