If you were watching the 2024 election and thought it was over on Tuesday night, you clearly weren't looking at California’s 45th District. Honestly, it was a nail-biter that felt more like a high-stakes poker game than a typical congressional race. On one side, you had Michelle Steel, the Republican incumbent with deep roots in Orange County. On the other, Derek Tran, a Democratic newcomer, Army veteran, and son of Vietnamese refugees.
The result? A margin so thin it basically required a microscope to see.
For weeks, the country waited. While other races were called within hours, the battle between Derek Tran and Michelle Steel dragged on for nearly a month as every last mail-in ballot was scrutinized. In the end, Tran pulled off a stunning upset, flipping the seat by a mere 653 votes. Out of over 315,000 cast. Think about that for a second. That's the population of a few city blocks deciding the fate of a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Why the 45th District Became a Groundbrush for 2024
This wasn't just another seat. It was a symbol. The 45th District is a purple slice of Southern California that covers parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, including the vibrant Vietnamese-American hub of Little Saigon.
It’s the kind of place where national trends collide with very specific local identities.
The Identity Tug-of-War
Michelle Steel, one of the first Korean American women in Congress, built her brand on fiscal conservatism and a hard line against the Chinese Communist Party. She leaned heavily on her immigrant story. However, Derek Tran countered with a powerful narrative of his own. As the son of refugees who fled Vietnam, he spoke directly to the largest Vietnamese-American community in the country.
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The campaign got ugly. Fast.
There were accusations about "red-baiting" and questions about language proficiency. Steel's campaign pointed out that Tran used a translator during some events, questioning his fluency in Vietnamese. Tran called the attacks "insulting and disgraceful." This wasn't just policy talk; it was a battle for the soul of the district's AAPI (Asian American and Pacific Islander) voters, who make up nearly 40% of the population.
The Money and the Stakes
Money poured in like a monsoon. We're talking over $46 million in total spending, making it one of the most expensive House races in American history. PACs from both sides treated this like the Alamo.
- Steel's War Chest: Raised roughly $10.7 million.
- Tran's Surge: Raised about $6.46 million but benefited from massive outside spending by Democratic groups.
Why spend so much? Because the GOP already had the House majority, but every seat mattered for the 119th Congress. For Democrats, ousting Steel was a rare bright spot in an otherwise tough year nationally.
The Slowest Count in the West
On election night, Michelle Steel actually held a lead of over 11,000 votes. If you went to bed then, you thought she’d cruised to a third term. But California’s "ballot harvesting" and mail-in rules mean the "late" votes often trend blue.
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Day by day, that lead evaporated.
11,000 became 5,000.
5,000 became 200.
By November 16, Tran took a lead of exactly 36 votes.
He never looked back.
What This Means for the Future of Orange County
The victory of Derek Tran over Michelle Steel signals a massive shift. Orange County, once the "Orange Wall" of Republicanism, is now almost entirely represented by Democrats in Congress.
But don't mistake this for a progressive mandate.
This was a centrist battle. Tran campaigned on lowering prescription drug costs and protecting abortion rights, but he also stayed sharp on "law and order" and veteran issues. He had to. This is a district that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by 6 points but also prefers fiscal restraint.
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Actionable Insights for the 119th Congress
If you live in CA-45 or just follow national politics, here is what you need to keep an eye on as Tran takes his seat:
- Bipartisan Pressure: Tran won by a hair. He knows he has to represent the 49.9% who voted for Steel. Expect him to join the Blue Dog Coalition or the New Democrat Coalition to signal moderation.
- The Vietnamese-American Vote: This bloc is no longer a monolith for the GOP. Expect both parties to double down on cultural outreach and specific anti-communist rhetoric to win them back in 2026.
- Audit the "Late" Vote: Republicans are already citing this race as a reason to overhaul California's voting laws. Whether or not they succeed, the 22-day wait for a result in CA-45 will be the "Exhibit A" in that debate for years.
The Derek Tran and Michelle Steel saga is a reminder that in modern American politics, no lead is safe until the very last envelope is opened. If you’re a voter in a swing district, your single vote truly was the margin of error this time around.
Next time someone tells you their vote doesn't count, just show them the final tally for California's 45th. It was decided by less than 0.2%. That's the definition of a photo finish.
Key Takeaway for Residents:
Monitor Tran's committee assignments. If he lands on Veterans' Affairs or Small Business, he's playing to his district's strengths. If he goes for high-profile judicial or oversight committees, he’s looking to make a national name for himself quickly before what will undoubtedly be a brutal 2026 reelection bid.