It was late November. Most of the country had already moved on to Thanksgiving plans and the looming 2025 inauguration drama. But in a small corner of Orange County, the world was still holding its breath over Derek Tran Michelle Steel. People were literally refreshing the California Secretary of State’s website at 4:00 p.m. every day like it was a lottery drawing.
They weren't just watching a vote count; they were watching a political demolition derby.
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The 0.2% Heartbreaker
Let’s be honest: nobody expected a 22-day nail-biter. Michelle Steel, a Republican incumbent with a massive $10.7 million war chest, seemed like a safe bet early on. She was up by 11,000 votes on election night. If you were a betting person, you probably would've cashed out right then. But California has this "slow-roll" counting process that drives everyone crazy.
As the mail-in ballots from places like Little Saigon and Garden Grove started trickling in, that 11,000-vote lead didn't just shrink—it evaporated.
Derek Tran, a consumer rights attorney and Army veteran, began chipping away. First it was 500 votes a day. Then 1,000. By the time the dust settled, Tran had unseated Steel by roughly 600 votes. That is a 50.1% to 49.9% margin. Basically, a rounding error. It was one of the tightest, most expensive House battles in American history, with over $46 million poured into a single district.
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Why the California 45th District Was a Powder Keg
The 45th isn't your typical suburban district. It’s a "majority-minority" area, meaning the voting power is largely held by Asian American communities—specifically Vietnamese Americans and Korean Americans.
Steel is Korean American. Tran is the son of Vietnamese refugees.
The campaign got nasty, and I mean really nasty. Steel’s team attacked Tran’s legal career, pointing to unsympathetic clients he had represented in the past. Tran’s camp fired back by hammering Steel on her previous support for a national abortion ban.
The Language Controversy
One of the weirder moments happened in August 2024. A report from the New York Post questioned Tran’s fluency in Vietnamese because he used a translator at some events. Steel’s campaign jumped on this immediately. They framed it as him being "out of touch" with the very community he claimed to represent.
Tran called the attacks "insulting and disgraceful." He leaned hard into his biography—the kid who grew up in his family’s corner store, whose parents fled a war-torn country with nothing. In a district where 16% of the voters are Vietnamese American, that story eventually carried more weight than the attacks on his linguistics.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Results
A lot of pundits were shocked that a Democrat flipped a seat while the rest of the country was seeing a massive "red shift" toward Donald Trump. It felt like an anomaly.
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But if you look at the data, the 45th was always a "purple" ticking time bomb:
- Joe Biden won the district by 6 points in 2020.
- Steel had managed to hold it in 2022 by a slim 4.8% margin.
- The district had been specifically redrawn to give Asian Americans a louder voice.
Basically, the district was "blue" at the presidential level but "red" at the local level. Tran didn't just win; he managed to close the gap in a year where the national environment was working against him.
The Concession That Took Three Weeks
Michelle Steel finally conceded on Wednesday, November 27, 2024. Her statement was surprisingly graceful given how bitter the campaign had been. She talked about her "American Dream" and how her journey was ending for a new one to begin.
Tran, meanwhile, was already talking about the transition. He posted on X about how only in America can a refugee’s son become a member of Congress in one generation. It was a classic "only in Orange County" political moment.
Actionable Insights for the Future
If you're following the Derek Tran Michelle Steel saga or looking at how future elections might play out in battleground districts, here is what actually matters moving forward:
- Watch the 2026 Rematch: Don't think for a second this is over. Given the 600-vote margin, expect the GOP to pour even more money into "Operation Take Back the 45th" in the next midterm cycle.
- The "Slow Count" is the New Normal: If you live in a swing district in California, ignore election night "leads." The trend is consistently favoring Democrats in the late-arriving mail-in ballots.
- Identity Politics are Nuanced: This race proved that being part of a minority group isn't a "win button." You have to fight for every sub-demographic. Steel won parts of the Korean community, while Tran dominated in Little Saigon.
- Economic Anxiety vs. Social Issues: Steel focused on inflation and "Communist China." Tran focused on healthcare costs and abortion rights. In the end, the social issues—specifically the threat of an abortion ban—mobilized enough voters to bridge that tiny 600-vote gap.
Keep an eye on the transition. Tran has already stated he wants to work closely with Steel's office to ensure constituent casework doesn't fall through the cracks during the handover. That’s a tall order after a year of calling each other names on TV, but it's what the voters in the 45th are expecting now.