Honestly, if you looked at the standings right now, you’d probably think Denver Nuggets vs Washington Wizards is just another "scheduled win" for the Mile High crew. Denver is sitting pretty at 28-13, basically breathing down the neck of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top spot in the West. Meanwhile, the Wizards are... well, they’re the Wizards. 10-29 and struggling to stay out of the Eastern Conference basement.
But here’s the thing. Basketball isn’t played on a spreadsheet.
If you’ve been paying attention lately, this specific matchup has become a weird, glitch-in-the-matrix trap for Nikola Jokic and company. Last season, the Wizards managed to sweep the season series against the Nuggets. Yeah, you read that right. A 15-win Washington team beat the defending champs twice. They did it in December 2024, and then they did it again in March 2025 in a 126-123 thriller where Alex Sarr basically looked like the second coming of Kevin Garnett.
Why the Nuggets Keep Tripping Over the Wizards
It doesn't make a lick of sense. On paper, the Denver Nuggets vs Washington Wizards game should be over by the third quarter. You have Nikola Jokic, who is currently averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists. The guy is a walking triple-double and the clear frontrunner for another MVP. Then you have Jamal Murray, who’s been on an absolute tear, dropping 25.8 a night.
But Washington plays this chaotic, high-pace style that seems to drive David Adelman (who took over the head coaching reigns this season) absolutely crazy.
The Wizards are currently 8th in the league in pace. They run. A lot. They don't always run well, but they run often. For a Nuggets team that prefers a methodical, Jokic-led half-court set—ranking 26th in pace—that constant transition pressure is like a pebble in your shoe. You can ignore it for a while, but eventually, it starts to hurt.
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The Nikola Jokic Historical Oddity
Let's talk about December 7, 2024. That game was a fever dream. Nikola Jokic put up a career-high 56 points, grabbed 16 boards, and dished out 8 assists.
Under any normal circumstances, that’s a 20-point blowout win. Instead, the Nuggets lost 122-113.
It was only the third time in NBA history a player had a 56-16-8 stat line, joining the likes of Elgin Baylor and Luka Doncic. And he lost to a Wizards team that had lost 16 games in a row heading into that night. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know about the weirdness of Denver Nuggets vs Washington Wizards, nothing will.
The 2026 Roster Reality Check
Washington has leaned into the rebuild, and it’s actually starting to show some sparks of life, even if the record is still ugly. Alex Sarr is the real deal. He’s averaging 7.6 rebounds and nearly 3 blocks a game, and more importantly, he’s one of the few humans on earth with the length to at least make Jokic look at the rim before he shoots.
They also added veteran presence with Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum. While Trae Young is currently sidelined with a knee injury, McCollum has been the steady hand, averaging 18.8 points.
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Denver’s New Look
The Nuggets didn't just stand pat this off-season. They brought in Jonas Valančiūnas to give them some actual size when Jokic sits, which has been a godsend. They also grabbed Cameron Johnson, who is shooting a ridiculous 42.9% from three.
- Nikola Jokic: 29.6 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 11.0 APG
- Jamal Murray: 25.8 PPG, 7.5 APG, 44.6% 3PT
- Alex Sarr: 14.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.1 BPG
- Kyshawn George: 14.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.9 APG
The emergence of Kyshawn George for Washington has been a sneaky-good storyline. The kid is 6'8", plays the wing, and is shooting 40% from deep. He’s the type of "long and athletic" player that usually gives Denver's backcourt some trouble.
What Really Happens on the Court
When you watch Denver Nuggets vs Washington Wizards, look at the non-Jokic minutes. That’s where Washington makes their moves. In the past, Denver’s bench was a disaster. It’s better now with Bruce Brown back in the mix and Christian Braun developing into a legitimate starter-level threat, but Washington’s second unit—led by Marvin Bagley III—usually plays with a "nothing to lose" energy that catches Denver sleeping.
Bagley recently logged a double-double off the bench, and in a high-altitude game in Denver, that bench depth matters more than people think.
The Matchup to Watch: Aaron Gordon vs. Alex Sarr
This is the chess match. Sarr is taller, but Gordon is built like a tank. If Sarr can pull Gordon away from the rim, it opens up lanes for Bub Carrington and CJ McCollum to attack the paint. If Gordon bullies Sarr under the basket, Denver cruises.
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The Gambling Angle (For Those Interested)
Most people see the Wizards at +12.5 or +15 and think it's an easy cover for Denver. Be careful.
The Wizards have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Nuggets. They might not win, but they tend to hang around like a bad cold. The "Over" has also hit in most of their recent meetings because Washington’s defense is, quite frankly, optional most nights (ranked 29th in defensive rating), and Denver’s offense is 1st in the league.
Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you're watching or betting on the next Denver Nuggets vs Washington Wizards game on January 17th or the rematch on the 22nd, keep these points in mind:
- Monitor the Pace: if the first quarter ends with a score like 38-35, Washington is in their element. If it's 24-20, Denver is in control.
- Check the Injury Report: Bilal Coulibaly and Khris Middleton are both questionable for the mid-January stretch. If they’re out, Washington loses almost all their defensive wing depth.
- Watch Jokic’s Assist Totals: Against Washington's zone, Jokic usually turns into a scorer rather than a facilitator. If he’s over 35 points by the third quarter, Denver might actually be in trouble because the ball movement has stopped.
- The Valančiūnas Factor: Watch how Jonas matches up with the Wizards' smaller bench lineups. He could be the X-factor that prevents another Washington upset.
The Wizards may be rebuilding, but they've somehow developed a "Nuggets Killer" DNA over the last 18 months. Don't expect a blowout just because of the names on the jerseys. This game is always weirder than it has any right to be.