The dust from the last election hasn't even settled yet, and honestly, the 2028 race is already in full swing. It feels a bit surreal. We are years away from anyone actually casting a ballot, but the democrats already maneuvering for 2028 presidential primary are operating like the Iowa Caucuses are next month.
If you think it's too early to talk about this, you’ve probably got a healthy life outside of politics. But for the heavy hitters in the Democratic Party, the clock is ticking. There's no clear leader. No incumbent. It’s a wide-open field, and that makes people nervous—and very, very busy.
The shadow primary is getting crowded
Most people wait for a formal announcement on a stage with balloons. That’s the old way. Now, the real "announcement" happens through podcast launches, strategic "pilgrimages" to South Carolina, and very specific legislative battles.
Take California Governor Gavin Newsom, for example. He basically admitted it. During an interview, he said he’d be "lying" if he said he wasn't thinking about a 2028 run. He’s out there launching podcasts like "This is Gavin Newsom" and debating anyone who will look his way. It’s not just about governing California anymore; it’s about building a national brand that can survive a brutal primary.
Then you have Pete Buttigieg. He’s still the darling of the New Hampshire crowd. Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire shows him leading the pack at about 19%, with Newsom right behind him. Buttigieg has a massive head start because he never really stopped campaigning there since 2020.
✨ Don't miss: Who Has Trump Pardoned So Far: What Really Happened with the 47th President's List
But don't sleep on the governors from the "Blue Wall."
- Gretchen Whitmer is playing it cool, focusing on Michigan, but her name is in every donor's mouth.
- Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania is leaning into his "Get Stuff Done" (GSD) mantra.
- JB Pritzker has been headlining fundraisers in New Hampshire, which is basically the political equivalent of putting a "Coming Soon" sign on your front lawn.
Why the early start matters so much this time
Basically, there is a leadership vacuum. With the party out of power in the White House and both chambers of Congress as of early 2025, there’s no "boss" to tell people to wait their turn.
It’s a bit of a free-for-all.
Strategists are saying this might be the longest primary in history. When there’s no front-runner, you have to start early to lock down the donors. If you wait until 2027 to start making calls, the big checks will already be signed.
🔗 Read more: Why the 2013 Moore Oklahoma Tornado Changed Everything We Knew About Survival
The New Hampshire and South Carolina factor
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is already messing with the calendar again. They started meetings in late 2025 to figure out which state goes first in 2028. This matters because it changes who has a chance. If South Carolina stays first, it helps candidates who perform well with Black voters, like Andy Beshear or maybe even Wes Moore from Maryland. If Iowa or New Hampshire tries to go "rogue" again, it creates a mess that only the most organized campaigns can navigate.
We’re already seeing "pilgrimages." Beshear spent time touring rural South Carolina recently. Ro Khanna is doing the same. They call it "party building," but everyone knows they’re measuring the drapes in the Oval Office.
The progressive vs. moderate tug-of-war
It’s not just about personalities; it’s about the soul of the party. You’ve got the "pragmatic moderates" like Shapiro and Beshear who think the path back to power is through the center. They want to talk about "deliverables" and "common sense."
On the other side, you have the "progressive stars." Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is hovering around 14% in early polls. She has a massive grassroots following that doesn't need big donors to get off the ground.
💡 You might also like: Ethics in the News: What Most People Get Wrong
Then there’s the Bernie Sanders factor. Even at his age, he still draws the biggest crowds. He’s currently acting as a sort of "leader of the resistance," and while he might not run again, he will definitely be the kingmaker. Whoever gets his blessing gets a massive chunk of the base.
What most people get wrong about these early moves
The biggest misconception is that these people are just "ambitious." Well, they are. But they’re also terrified.
They saw what happened in the last cycle. They know that if the party doesn't have a clear, battle-tested candidate by the time the 2026 midterms are over, they are going to get steamrolled in 2028. The maneuvering isn't just about ego; it's about survival. They are trying to build "insurance policies" for the party.
If one candidate crashes and burns, they need three others ready to step in immediately.
Actionable insights: What to watch next
If you want to know who is actually serious about the democrats already maneuvering for 2028 presidential primary, stop listening to what they say and start watching where they go.
- Follow the travel logs: If a governor from a Western state suddenly develops a deep, abiding interest in the problems of small-town New Hampshire or South Carolina, they’re running.
- Watch the 2026 midterms: This is the real audition. Potential 2028ers will be crisscrossing the country to help House and Senate candidates. The ones who raise the most money for others are the ones building the "chits" they’ll collect later.
- Monitor the Secretary of State races: In 2026, 26 states will choose who runs their elections. Democrats are pouring $40 million into these races. Why? Because the person who controls the ballot box in 2026 controls the environment for 2028.
- Look for "The Pivot": Watch for candidates like Newsom or AOC to start moderating their tone—or for moderates like Shapiro to start throwing red meat to the base. That shift usually happens about 18 months before the first primary.
The 2028 primary is already happening in boardrooms, private dinners, and "non-political" book tours. It’s messy, it’s early, and it’s going to be incredibly expensive. But for a party trying to find its way back from the wilderness, the maneuvering is the only thing keeping the engine running.