Checking the defensive player of the year odds nba board in mid-January feels a bit like watching a high-stakes poker game where half the players are bluffing and the other half are just trying to stay conscious. If you looked at the lines back in October, Victor Wembanyama was the "lock" of the century. People were talking about him winning this award for the next decade straight.
But things change fast in this league.
Right now, Chet Holmgren has surged to the top of the list at most sportsbooks. Most people didn't see that coming so quickly. Honestly, the shift is as much about health and team success as it is about individual blocks or steals. While Wemby is still the most terrifying defensive force on the planet, his availability has turned the betting market upside down.
The Chet Holmgren Takeover
Chet is currently sitting as the favorite, often found around -125 or -140 depending on where you shop. It’s wild because he isn't even leading the league in blocks. But he’s the anchor of an Oklahoma City Thunder defense that is statistically smothering the rest of the NBA.
The Thunder have the best defensive rating in the league by a massive margin.
Voters love that stuff. They love a guy who represents the best unit. Chet’s mobility is the secret sauce here; he can recover on a blow-by and still pin the ball against the glass. He’s playing on a team that wins every night, and that narrative is hard to beat. If the season ended today, the trophy probably goes to OKC.
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What’s Going on With Victor Wembanyama?
So, why did Wemby fall to +750 or even +1000 in some spots?
It’s the 65-game rule.
The NBA’s eligibility criteria are brutal. Victor has already missed 14 games this season due to a mix of calf strains and "load management" (though the Spurs call it injury prevention). He basically has to play almost every remaining game to even be considered. If he misses four or five more, he’s out. Period.
Even with a minutes restriction, his "stocks" (steals + blocks) are higher than anyone else's. It’s not even close. But you can't win from the bench. If you're looking for value and you think the Spurs medical staff is going to let him loose in the second half of the season, +1000 is a gift. But that’s a massive "if."
The Rudy Gobert Renaissance
Rudy Gobert is the zombie of this award. You think he's done, and then he just keeps appearing in the top three. At +350, he’s the primary challenger to Chet right now.
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Voter fatigue is a real thing, though.
Rudy already has four of these trophies. For him to win a fifth, he basically has to be twice as good as everyone else, which is a tall order. Still, Minnesota’s defense craters when he sits. He’s leading the league in several advanced impact metrics, like estimated defensive plus-minus. He’s the safe bet, the "boring" bet, and usually, the one that makes sense if the young guys stumble.
Current NBA DPOY Odds Snapshot (January 2026)
- Chet Holmgren (OKC): -125
- Rudy Gobert (MIN): +350
- Victor Wembanyama (SAS): +1000
- Bam Adebayo (MIA): +1400
- Amen Thompson (HOU): +1400
- Evan Mobley (CLE): +4000
The Sleepers You Shouldn’t Ignore
Let's talk about Amen Thompson and Dyson Daniels.
Amen is a freak. He’s a wing who defends like a center and runs like a track star. At +1400, he’s the choice for people who want to look smart at the bar. He doesn't have the "rim protector" label that usually wins this award, but the way he disrupts passing lanes is pure chaos for opposing point guards.
Then there's the reigning champ, Evan Mobley.
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He won it last year because Wemby got hurt, but his odds have plummeted to +4000 this season. The Cavs aren't as dominant defensively as they were, and Mobley's individual stats have taken a slight dip. It feels like the "new toy" syndrome is working against him. Everyone is obsessed with the Chet vs. Wemby rivalry now.
Why the 65-Game Rule Ruined the Market
The betting landscape for the defensive player of the year odds nba changed forever when the league implemented the minimum game requirement.
In the old days, you could win DPOY playing 58 games if you were dominant enough. Not anymore. This has turned the DPOY race into a war of attrition. You aren't just betting on who is the best defender; you're betting on who has the best physical therapist.
This is why someone like Bam Adebayo stays in the conversation at +1400. He’s reliable. He’s out there every night. He’s the "switch-everything" king in Miami. If the top three guys all tweak an ankle in March, Bam is the one standing there ready to collect the hardware.
Actionable Insights for Betting the DPOY
- Monitor the Injury Reports Daily: If Victor Wembanyama misses two more games this month, his odds will likely balloon to +2000 or disappear entirely. He is on a razor-thin margin for eligibility.
- Look at Team Defensive Rating: Historically, the winner comes from a top-three defensive team. Right now, that’s OKC, Detroit, and San Antonio. If the Spurs keep climbing the defensive rankings, Wemby’s case becomes undeniable—provided he plays.
- Hedge with Gobert: If you bet on Chet at -125, you might want to put a small "insurance" bet on Rudy Gobert. He’s the most likely beneficiary if Chet hits a "sophomore slump" or the Thunder's defense regresses to the mean.
- Ignore the Highlights: Don't get fooled by a crazy chase-down block on TikTok. Voters look at the "on/off" splits. Check how much better a team is defensively when their star is on the floor versus the bench. That’s where the real race is won.
The race is far from over. With three months left in the regular season, a single sprained ligament could shift the entire board. Keep an eye on the Thunder's schedule—if they stay at the top of the West, it’s Chet’s award to lose.