If you’ve been watching the Chicago Board of Trade lately, you probably noticed the collective gasp when the USDA dropped their January 2026 WASDE report. It wasn't just a slight adjustment. It was a sledgehammer. Markets were already leaning bearish, but nobody expected the government to find an extra 269 million bushels of corn hiding in the 2025 crop.
Basically, we are swimming in the stuff.
As of mid-January 2026, December 2025 corn futures (ZCZ25) are hovering around the $4.31 mark. That’s a far cry from the $4.80 levels some bulls were dreaming of last spring. If you're a producer or a trader trying to figure out if we’ve finally hit the floor, you have to look at the sheer weight of the 17-billion-bushel record harvest we just hauled in.
It’s heavy. Really heavy.
The January WASDE Shock and ZCZ25
The January 12 report was a "bombshell" in every sense of the word. Most analysts were betting on a slight trim to yields. Instead, the USDA hiked the national average yield to a staggering 186.5 bushels per acre. When you combine that with a jump in harvested acres to 91.3 million, you get a supply mountain that is incredibly hard to climb over.
Prices for December 2025 corn futures reacted exactly how you’d expect: they tanked.
We saw a sharp 20-cent slide in the days following the report. This isn't just about "too much corn" in the abstract; it's about the stocks-to-use ratio. That ratio has climbed to 13.6%, up significantly from the 10.3% we saw just a year ago. In the grain world, that's the difference between a tight, nervous market and one where buyers can just sit on their hands and wait for lower bids.
Why the "August Low" Matters Now
Technical traders are obsessed with the $4.12 to $4.20 range right now. That was the line in the sand drawn back in August 2025. Honestly, if the ZCZ25 contract breaks through that floor, we could be looking at a psychological freefall toward the $4.00 mark.
Right now, the market is sort of holding its breath.
- Commercials are actually adding some long positions, which suggests the big players think the sell-off might be overdone.
- Managed money (the "funds") are still leaning short, betting that the supply weight is too much to overcome.
- Export sales remain a bright spot, particularly with Mexico and South Korea staying active, but it’s a race against the South American harvest.
The South American Wildcard
You can't talk about December 2025 corn futures without looking at Brazil and Argentina. It’s their summer right now, and the "Safrinha" (second) crop in Brazil is the one that really competes with U.S. exports.
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Early reports from Conab and various private consultancies like Agroconsult suggest Brazil is looking at another massive crop, potentially around 141 million metric tons. There was some talk of La Niña causing dryness in Argentina, and while some central regions did see a dip in soil moisture in December, recent rains have taken the "weather premium" right back out of the market.
Basically, the "South American drought" narrative hasn't materialized enough to scare the shorts.
If Brazil’s harvest hits the ports in a few months at a $0.60 to $1.00 discount to U.S. corn—which is where the price spreads are trending—the U.S. export pace is going to hit a brick wall. That would leave even more of that 17-billion-bushel U.S. crop sitting in bins, further depressing the ZCZ25 price.
Looking Ahead to 2026 Planting
What most people get wrong is thinking the current price only reflects last year's harvest. It doesn't. December 2025 corn futures are also trying to price in what farmers will do this coming spring.
Current projections for 2026 planting intentions are hovering around 95 million acres. That’s a slight drop from the 98.7 million acres planted in 2025, but it’s still a massive number. Because the soybean-to-corn price ratio currently favors corn in some regions—mostly due to high fertilizer costs easing up slightly—farmers might not switch to beans as aggressively as some hope.
- Fertilizer Relief: Prices for urea and phosphates have dipped about 5% from their 2025 peaks.
- Ethanol Demand: On the bright side, ethanol plants are grinding at a record pace, roughly 9% higher than last year.
- Trade Tensions: The ongoing uncertainty with China remains a massive "if." They’ve met most of their current obligations, but will they come back for more?
Practical Next Steps for Producers and Traders
If you're holding unpriced corn or looking at the ZCZ25 board, sitting still is a risky strategy. The market has proven it can and will go lower when the USDA finds more bushels.
Watch the $4.20 support level. If we close below that for three consecutive sessions, the "August Low" is officially dead, and the new target becomes $4.00.
Audit your storage costs. With the national average cash price near $3.81, the carry in the market isn't always enough to cover the cost of keeping that corn in the bin until summer.
Keep an eye on the 45Z tax credit. There are new biofuel mandates and tax credits coming into play in 2026 that could boost domestic demand for corn-based ethanol. If the export market stays quiet, the domestic "grind" is your only real hope for a price recovery.
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The reality of December 2025 corn futures is that we are in a "supply-heavy" cycle. It takes a major weather event or a massive geopolitical shift to break that kind of momentum. Until then, the trend is your friend—and right now, that friend is heading down.