The 2026 Daytona 500 isn't just another race. It’s the start of a brand-new era for NASCAR. With the return of "The Chase" championship format and the sheer unpredictability of Next Gen racing at superspeedways, everyone is looking for an edge. But honestly? Most of the oxygen in the room is being taken up by two names: Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace.
It’s easy to see why. You’ve got Elliott, the golden boy of Hendrick Motorsports, still hunting for that elusive Harley J. Earl trophy to match his father’s legacy. Then there’s Wallace, who has basically turned Daytona into his personal playground over the last few years, even if the win column doesn't quite show it yet.
If you're betting on the Daytona 500, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace are likely at the top of your list. But their paths to the front couldn't be more different.
The Frustration of Chase Elliott at Daytona
Chase Elliott has a weird relationship with this track. He’s fast. Like, really fast. He’s got two poles to his name here and consistently puts that No. 9 Chevrolet in the top ten during qualifying. But the finish line? That’s been a different story.
He’s finished second before. He’s been caught in the "Big One" more times than he’d care to count. For a guy who has won just about everything else in the sport, the Daytona 500 remains the one giant hole in his resume.
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People always talk about the pressure. Is it getting to him? Probably not. Elliott is one of the most composed drivers on the circuit. However, 2026 feels high-stakes. With William Byron winning the last two 500s (2024 and 2025), there is a quiet internal pressure at Hendrick. Nobody wants to be the guy left behind while their teammate chases a three-peat.
Why 2026 might be different for the 9 crew:
- Drafting Chemistry: Elliott has become much more aggressive in choosing his lanes. He isn't just waiting for the race to come to him anymore.
- The Hendrick Factor: Chevrolet usually brings the most horsepower to qualifying, but their race-trim stability has improved significantly in the off-season.
- The Chase Format: With the championship format reverting to "The Chase," a win at Daytona carries even more weight for season-long momentum.
Bubba Wallace: The Superspeedway Specialist
Now, let’s talk about Bubba. If there is one thing we know for sure, it's that Bubba Wallace knows how to navigate a draft. Statistically, he has one of the best average finishes at Daytona among active drivers. He’s finished second twice.
Last year, he led laps late and looked like the car to beat before things got chaotic in overtime. That’s the thing about Bubba; he doesn't just survive Daytona; he controls it. He has this knack for finding the right bumper at the right time.
But there’s a narrative that follows him. Critics point to the 2025 Chicago incident—the $50,000 fine for door-slamming Alex Bowman—as evidence that he gets too emotional. Honestly, that's a bit of a reach when it comes to plate racing. At Daytona, Bubba is surgical. He’s calm. He works the radio with his spotter better than almost anyone in the field.
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23XI Racing has given him cars that are rockets. With Tyler Reddick as a teammate, the Toyota camp has a drafting duo that is frankly terrifying for the rest of the field.
The Stats That Actually Matter
If you’re looking at the numbers for the Daytona 500, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace stand out for very different reasons.
Elliott’s average finish at Daytona is roughly 21.3. That sounds terrible, right? But look closer. His average running position is often in the top ten. He’s just a magnet for other people’s mistakes. On the flip side, Wallace boasts an average finish of around 12.9. That is elite. In a race where half the field usually ends up in the garage, Bubba’s ability to keep the fenders clean is his greatest weapon.
Head-to-Head Comparison
- Top 5s: Wallace has the edge here. He's a perennial threat in the final ten laps.
- Laps Led: Elliott often leads early; Wallace leads late.
- Qualifying: Elliott almost always starts near the front, while Bubba is comfortable coming from the back.
What to Watch for on Race Day
The dynamic between these two will be fascinating. Elliott needs to break the "Hendrick Curse" of being fast but unlucky. He needs to find a way to stay out of the mid-pack mess that usually triggers the Big One.
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Wallace, meanwhile, just needs to keep doing what he’s doing. If he’s in the top five with two laps to go, he’s the favorite. Period.
One thing people often overlook is the manufacturer alliance. In 2026, the Fords look strong with Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, but the Chevrolet/Toyota split is where the real chess match happens. Will Elliott work with a Toyota like Wallace if it means getting to the front? Probably. At Daytona, friends are made of whoever is pushing you.
How to Follow the Action
The 2026 Daytona 500 is set for February 15th. It’s going to be a long afternoon of 200-mph chess. If you're following the Daytona 500, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace storylines, keep an eye on Stage 2. That’s usually when the "playing nice" ends and the real aggression starts.
Don't just look at the leaderboard. Watch the roof cameras. See how Wallace positions his car to side-draft. Watch how Elliott handles the restarts.
Key Takeaways for Fans:
- Watch the Draft Partners: See if Elliott hooks up with Byron or Larson early.
- Monitor the Radio: Bubba’s communication is the key to his success; if he sounds frustrated, he’s in trouble.
- Pit Strategy: With the new Chase format, stage points matter more than ever. Some might sacrifice the win for the points.
Keep your eyes on the 9 and the 23. One is racing for history; the other is racing for respect. Both are more than capable of ending up in Victory Lane.
To get the most out of the race, track the live interval times between the lead pack and the second group during the final 20 laps. This gap often determines when the final move for the win will be made. You should also keep a close watch on the weather patterns at the track, as humidity changes in Florida can significantly alter how the cars handle the air in a tight pack.