Honestly, looking at the DaVita Inc stock price lately feels like watching a slow-motion car crash that nobody wants to acknowledge. You've got this massive, 35% market-share-owning behemoth in the dialysis world, and yet the tickers are bleeding red. As of January 15, 2026, the stock is sitting at around $105.87, which is a far cry from the $179.60 highs we saw just about a year ago. It’s a mess.
Investors are scratching their heads because, on paper, DaVita should be a fortress. People need dialysis. It’s not a "discretionary" service like buying a new iPhone or going to the movies. If you have end-stage renal disease (ESRD), you go to the clinic or you die. Pretty simple. But the stock market doesn't care about "simple" when the underlying math starts looking wonky.
The Numbers That Actually Matter Right Now
If you’re tracking the DaVita Inc stock price, you’ve probably noticed the recent plunge. Just this week, it hit a new 52-week low. We’re talking about a company that has lost nearly 40% of its value in a single year.
- Current Price: ~$105.87
- 52-Week High: $179.60
- Market Cap: Roughly $7.47 billion
What’s wild is that the P/E ratio is sitting at a measly 10.89. For a healthcare leader, that’s basically "clearance rack" pricing. But there's a reason for the discount. The market is pricing in a lot of "if" and "maybe." If volumes don't recover, the stock stays in the gutter. Maybe if the payer mix shifts too much toward Medicare, the profits vanish.
Why the "Buffett Factor" is Turning Sour
For years, the best reason to own DaVita was because Warren Buffett owned it. Berkshire Hathaway used to hold nearly half the company. It was the ultimate "moat" play. But lately? Berkshire has been heading for the exits.
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They’ve been trimming the position in "dribs and drabs," as the saying goes. In late 2025, they sold off another 400,000 shares. Now that Greg Abel is calling more shots at Berkshire and the old guard like Todd Combs has moved around, there’s a real fear that Berkshire might just "cut bait" entirely.
When the smartest money in the room starts looking at the door, the rest of the room gets nervous. You can't blame them. Berkshire's cost basis is somewhere around $60, so they’re still sitting on a massive gain, but the "Buffett floor" that used to support the DaVita Inc stock price is looking pretty flimsy.
The Commercial Payer Trap
Here is the secret sauce of DaVita’s business model that most casual observers miss: the 10% rule.
Basically, about 90% of DaVita’s patients are on government plans like Medicare. DaVita makes almost zero profit on these people. In fact, they sometimes lose money on them. All the profit—and I mean all of it—comes from the 10% of patients with private, commercial insurance. These insurers pay way higher rates.
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If that 10% shrinks to 9%, or if those private insurers find a way to pay less, the DaVita Inc stock price doesn't just dip—it craters. This is exactly what’s happening. Payer mix is shifting. More people are moving to Medicare Advantage, and that’s putting a massive squeeze on margins.
The GLP-1 Ghost in the Room
You can't talk about kidney care in 2026 without talking about weight-loss drugs. Ozempic, Wegovy, and the whole crew. These GLP-1 drugs are surprisingly good at protecting kidneys.
For a long time, the bear case for DaVita was that these drugs would stop people from needing dialysis. Management says the impact is overblown. They argue that patients will just live longer, eventually needing dialysis anyway. Maybe they're right. But the market hates uncertainty.
What’s Next for DVA?
If you’re looking for a silver lining, DaVita is a cash-flow machine. They generated over $600 million in free cash flow in just the third quarter of 2025. They aren't going bankrupt. They are using that cash to buy back their own stock like crazy—repurchasing 3.3 million shares recently at an average price of $140.67.
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Wait. Think about that. They bought shares at $140, and now the price is $105. That’s a "yikes" from a capital allocation perspective, but it shows management thinks the stock is undervalued.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Watch the Payer Mix: Don't look at total patient numbers; look at the percentage of commercial patients. If that drops, stay away.
- Monitor Berkshire’s 13F: If Buffett (or Abel) unloads the stake entirely, expect a massive liquidity event that could push the price even lower in the short term.
- Look at the EPS Growth: Analysts are still forecasting EPS to hit $12.80 for the full year 2026. If they can actually hit that, the current price is a steal.
- Check the Leverage: DaVita has a lot of debt (over $12 billion). With interest rates being what they are, any hiccup in cash flow makes that debt a lot heavier.
The DaVita Inc stock price is currently a battleground between value hunters who see a cheap, dominant player and skeptics who see a dying business model. It’s not for the faint of heart. If you're going to jump in, do it because you believe the dialysis volume will bounce back after the "flu and hurricane" anomalies of 2025, not just because it looks "cheap" on a chart.
Keep a close eye on the Q4 2025 earnings report coming in February 2026. That will be the moment of truth. If they miss their narrowed guidance of $10.35–$11.15 adjusted EPS, that $100 support level might not hold.