Fantasy football is basically a giant exercise in chasing the dragon. You remember that one week, that one massive performance, and you spend the rest of the season trying to recapture the feeling. Honestly, if you're looking at Darnell Mooney fantasy football prospects right now, you're likely caught between two very different realities: the deep-threat monster of 2024 and the injury-riddled "what happened?" of 2025.
Last season was a mess for Mooney. There’s no sugarcoating it. He finished as the WR78 in fantasy points per game, which is essentially "waiver wire fodder" territory. He only managed 32 catches for 443 yards and a single touchdown across 15 games. If you drafted him hoping for a repeat of his 992-yard breakout from the year prior, you've probably still got the scars.
The 2025 Reality Check
Why did it go so wrong?
It wasn't just one thing. It was a perfect storm. It started in training camp with a shoulder injury that Raheem Morris called "week-to-week," but it clearly lingered long after he returned to the field. Then came the quarterback carousel. When Michael Penix Jr. went down, the offense shifted. Kirk Cousins came back in, and while he and Mooney had a "strong connection" in the past, the volume just wasn't there.
Mooney’s target share plummeted to 16.1%. In 2024, that number was 21.1%.
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When your volume drops by 25%, your fantasy floor doesn't just lower; it vanishes. He was the king of "unrealized air yards," finishing with 649 yards left on the table. That basically means he was running the right routes, but either the throw was off or the timing was shot. It's frustrating for managers. You see the 14.2 average target distance (ADOT) and think, "He's one play away!" But in 15 games, that "one play" only happened once, in Week 12 against the Saints.
Breaking Down the Numbers (The Ugly Bits)
- Catch Rate: A brutal 44.4%.
- Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): 1.00. (For context, elite WRs usually sit above 2.20).
- First Read Share: 22.3%.
He was often the second or third option behind Drake London and Kyle Pitts, and even then, he was competing with David Sills and Casey Washington for scraps when London was out.
Why 2026 Could Be Different (Or Not)
The Falcons are heading into 2026 with a lot of question marks. Terry Fontenot and Raheem Morris are gone. A new regime means a new playbook. Mooney is 28 now, turning 29 in the fall, and he’s carrying a $10.97 million salary. Some experts, like those at FantasyPros, think he’s a candidate for a contract restructure or even a release.
But here is the thing: if he stays, he’s still the primary deep threat in an offense that desperately needs speed.
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Kirk Cousins actually spoke about Mooney recently, mentioning that Mooney was "dealt a tough hand" with the injuries. Cousins specifically pointed to the collarbone and hamstring issues that kept him from ever finding a rhythm. If Cousins is the starter and Mooney is healthy, there’s a path back to WR3 status.
The "Kirk Cousins" Factor
Cousins has a history of supporting two fantasy-relevant receivers. Think Diggs and Thielen or Jefferson and Addison. The problem in 2025 was that the Falcons weren't that team. They were 21st in pass plays per game. If the new coaching staff opens things up, Mooney's 34.6% deep target share becomes a lot more interesting.
You've gotta be careful, though. Don't draft him expecting 1,000 yards. That 2024 season (64-992-5) looks more like an outlier than the new norm right now.
How to Handle Mooney in Your Drafts
If you're in a dynasty league, Mooney's value is at an all-time low. He’s currently ranked around WR64 in dynasty formats. Honestly, he’s a "hold." You aren't going to get anything of value for him in a trade, so you might as well see if the new Falcons staff can fix the deep ball connection.
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In redraft leagues, he’s a late-round flier at best.
Actionable Strategy for 2026
- Watch the Coaching Hire: If Atlanta brings in an offensive-minded coach who loves 11-personnel (three wide receivers), Mooney’s stock ticks up. If they go run-heavy, he’s a "do not draft."
- Monitor the Offseason Health: That shoulder injury was the root of his 2025 struggles. If he’s a full participant in OTAs without a red shirt, he’s worth a look in the double-digit rounds.
- Target the Matchups: Mooney is a "Best Ball" dream and a "Start/Sit" nightmare. He’s the type of player who will give you 2.1 points for three weeks and then 16.4 points in a random game against a high-blitz team.
- The "Saints" Rule: For some reason, Mooney destroys the Saints. He had 74 yards and a TD against them in 2025 and always seems to find space in their secondary. Mark your calendars for those weeks.
Basically, Darnell Mooney is the ultimate "post-hype" sleeper. Everyone is out because of how bad 2025 looked, but the underlying air yards suggest the talent hasn't totally evaporated. It's just a matter of whether the Falcons—or whoever he plays for next—can actually deliver a catchable ball.
Final Insight: Treat Mooney as a bench stash with high-ceiling potential. He shouldn't be your WR3 on draft day. He's the guy you grab in Round 13 to see if the 2024 magic was real or just a flash in the pan. If he's still averaging 2 catches a game by Week 3, you cut him for the next hot waiver wire pickup. No harm, no foul.