Honestly, anyone who tells you they know exactly what the sky will do three weeks from now is probably selling you something. Weather in North Texas is a chaotic beast. One day you're wearing a t-shirt at White Rock Lake, and the next, you're scraping ice off your windshield with a credit card because you can't find the scraper.
That said, looking at the dallas weather 20 day forecast right now, we’re seeing a classic Texas "roller coaster" set to play out through late January and into the first week of February.
The immediate deep chill
Right now, Dallas is shivering. Today, January 17, we're looking at a high of 44°F. That’s not "Texas cold"—that’s actually cold. The wind is biting out of the northwest at 8 mph, making it feel more like 39°F. If you’re heading out to Deep Ellum tonight, dress for the 20s, because it’s dropping to a low of 26°F.
The National Weather Service even mentioned a tiny chance of "flurries" or sleet pellets earlier today. Most of it was virga—rain that evaporates before hitting the ground—but it’s a reminder that winter is very much here.
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The weird Sunday warmup
If you hate the cold, just wait 24 hours. Sunday, January 18, is going to be a total pivot. We’re jumping up to a high of 60°F. It’ll be sunny, clear, and honestly beautiful. But don't let it fool you. The low is still hitting 27°F Sunday night. That’s a 33-degree swing in a single day. Only in Dallas.
Next week: Rain and reinforcing fronts
Monday through Wednesday looks messy. We have a "reinforcing" cold front coming in. Basically, it’s a second punch of chilly air that keeps us from staying in that 60-degree sweet spot.
- Monday, Jan 19: Cloudy with a high of 51°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: A bit warmer at 55°F, but keep an eye on the night. There’s a 45% chance of rain moving in after dark.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: This looks like the wettest day of the week. Expect light rain and a high near 59°F.
Looking further out: The 20-day trend
As we push into the final week of January, the long-range models—which, let's be real, are more like "educated guesses" at this stage—suggest a shift. Historical data from sources like the Farmers' Almanac and WeatherSpark indicate that late January often brings a "Polar Vortex" disruption.
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While the first half of January 2026 was unusually warm, the atmosphere is currently reconfiguring. We’re likely to see a "wet and cold" pattern through January 31. This means highs struggling to break 50°F and multiple days of gray, drizzly "Texas winter" weather.
By the first week of February, the models hint at another significant cold snap. We’re talking about those biting North Texas winds returning, potentially dragging temperatures back down into the low 20s.
Why the forecast keeps changing
The reason your weather app looks different every time you open it is the "jet stream." Dallas sits right in the middle of a tug-of-war between warm air from the Gulf of Mexico and freezing Arctic air dropping down through the Great Plains.
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If that jet stream wobbles 50 miles to the east, we get a sunny day. If it wobbles west, we get an ice storm.
Actionable tips for the next 20 days:
- Drip those faucets: We have several nights coming up (tonight, Sunday, and likely late next week) where temperatures will drop well below freezing (26°F - 27°F).
- Watch the Wednesday commute: With rain chances at 35% to 45% mid-week and temperatures hovering near the 40s, North Texas bridges can get slick.
- Layer up: Since we’re seeing swings from 44°F to 60°F in 24 hours, the "onion method" of dressing is your only hope of staying comfortable.
Check your local radar on Wednesday morning before you head out, as that's when the most consistent rain is expected to hit the Metroplex.