If you’ve lived in Polk County for more than a week, you know the drill. You check the 10 day forecast for Dallas Oregon expecting a straightforward answer, and instead, you get a chaotic mix of "maybe rain," "definitely gray," and that weird afternoon sun that blinds you while you're driving down Highway 223.
Honestly, mid-January in Dallas is a specific kind of vibe. We’re currently sitting in a stretch that’s surprisingly dry but teeth-chattering cold in the mornings. If you were hoping for a massive snow dump to justify staying in bed, I’ve got some bad news. The Cascades are struggling with a record-low snowpack—about 22% of normal as of early January 2026—and that dry air is spilling right into our valley.
The Immediate Outlook: Dry Spells and Frozen Windshields
Right now, the big story isn't the rain. It’s the high pressure.
We’re looking at a string of "sunny" days. In Dallas-speak, that usually means a bright, freezing morning followed by a crisp afternoon where the high barely scrapes 50°F. For Tuesday, January 13, expect a high near 53°F. It sounds manageable until you realize the overnight low is dipping to 37°F.
The rest of the week follows a similar pattern. Wednesday and Thursday (Jan 14-15) are basically carbon copies:
- Highs: Hovering around 50°F.
- Lows: Dropping to 34°F or 35°F.
- Sky: Clear. Like, actually clear.
You’re going to need the ice scraper. Don't be the person trying to clear a windshield with a credit card at 7:00 AM.
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Looking Toward the Weekend: Will the Rain Return?
By Friday, January 16, we see a slight "warm-up," if you can call 52°F warm. But the real shift happens as we head into early next week.
Historically, January in Dallas is our wettest month, averaging about 7.48 inches of precipitation. We’ve been dodging that bullet lately, but the models suggest the high-pressure ridge might start to break down around Monday, January 19.
We’re seeing cloud cover increase significantly by Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday (Jan 19-20) look mostly cloudy with highs staying stuck in the high 40s. The humidity is going to spike—expect it to hit that 90% range where the air just feels heavy and damp, even if it’s not actively pouring.
Breaking Down the Next 10 Days
Basically, here is how the numbers are shaking out for the 97338 zip code:
The Clear Stretch (Jan 13 - Jan 18): Expect lots of Vitamin D but very little warmth. Winds are coming mostly from the north at about 3 to 7 mph, which keeps that chill biting. Saturday night will be the coldest of the bunch, likely hitting the freezing mark (32°F).
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The Shift (Jan 19 - Jan 22): The sun says goodbye. We transition into "Partly Sunny" and "Mostly Cloudy" territory. By Wednesday, January 21, there’s a 20% chance of light rain. It’s not a washout, but it’s enough to make the roads slick after this long dry spell. Highs will drop further, likely sitting around 45°F by the end of this period.
Why the "Willamette Gray" Is Missing
Some people are panicking about the lack of rain. Oregon State Climatologist Larry O’Neill recently pointed out that while our soil moisture is okay for now, the lack of mountain snow is a major red flag for later this year.
Usually, Dallas is a temperate rainforest this time of year. But 2026 is leaning into a weak La Niña pattern that’s behaving... weirdly. Instead of the "cool and wet" we were promised, we’re getting "cool and stagnant."
If you're planning a trip out to the Baskett Slough National Wildlife Refuge, this is actually prime time. The trails aren't the usual mud pits, and the clear skies make for incredible bird watching, even if you have to wear three layers of wool.
What Most People Get Wrong About Dallas Weather
People think if it's raining in Portland or Salem, it's pouring in Dallas. Not always. We sit in a bit of a rain shadow from the Coast Range. Sometimes the clouds dump everything on Falls City and we just get a light mist.
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Also, don't trust the "feels like" temperature on your phone if you're heading toward the hills. The elevation gain around Rickreall and the backroads toward Monmouth can see temperature swings of 5 degrees in a matter of miles.
Survival Tips for the 10-Day Window
- Check your tires. Cold snaps cause air pressure to drop. If your "low tire" light hasn't come on yet, it probably will by Saturday morning.
- Outdoor Pipes. We aren't hitting deep-freeze levels (20°F or lower), so you don't need to go crazy, but if you have exposed pipes on the north side of your house, a quick cover wouldn't hurt for the weekend.
- The 2:00 PM Rule. The high temperature for the day usually hits around 2:00 PM. If you have outdoor chores, that’s your tiny window of comfort. By 4:30 PM, the sun is dropping and the temp plummets.
While the current 10 day forecast for Dallas Oregon looks stable, keep an eye on the transition toward Jan 21. That's when the "standard" Oregon winter is looking to make its comeback.
For the next week, though, enjoy the clear skies. They’re a rare gift in a Willamette Valley January. Grab a coffee at a local spot downtown, keep the heater on a steady 68, and make sure your headlights are on—even in the "sun"—because the fog likes to linger near the creek until noon.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Prep for Frost: Expect heavy frost every morning through Jan 18; ensure your vehicle's reservoir is filled with winter-grade de-icer fluid.
- Monitor Monday: If you have outdoor plans for Jan 19, check the forecast Sunday night, as that's the likely tipping point for the return of rain.
- Lawn Care: Avoid heavy traffic on your lawn during those 32°F mornings to prevent damaging frozen grass blades.