If you’re checking the current USD to BDT exchange rate right now, you’re probably seeing a number somewhere around 122.46. Honestly, if you haven’t looked at the charts in a couple of weeks, that might come as a bit of a shock. It was just hanging around the 120 mark for the longest time, feeling almost stable.
But then January happened.
The Taka just took a noticeable dip. We're talking about a move from roughly 120.72 at the start of the year to over 122.40 in the middle of January 2026. It’s not a "free fall," but for anyone sending money home or trying to manage import costs in Dhaka, those extra couple of Takas per dollar add up fast.
Why the Taka is sliding again
Everyone wants to know why the rate doesn't just stay put. Well, the Bangladesh Bank is basically trying to walk a tightrope. On one side, they’ve got the IMF poking them to let the currency be "market-based." On the other side, they’ve got a population already struggling with an inflation rate that just hit 8.49% in December 2025.
It's a mess.
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The Crawling Peg is doing the heavy lifting
You've probably heard the term crawling peg tossed around by bankers. It’s a fancy way of saying the central bank sets a "mid-point" and lets the rate wiggle around it within a specific band. Back in May 2024, they set that mid-point at 117. Fast forward to today, and that "mid-point" has effectively shifted upwards because the market demand for dollars is just too high to ignore.
- Record Remittances: Here’s the crazy part. Expatriates sent home nearly $33 billion in 2025. That’s a massive record.
- The Gap: Even with all that money coming in, exports have been a bit stagnant.
- The IMF Factor: To keep getting those loan installments, the government has to show they aren't artificially "propping up" the Taka. So, they let it slide a bit to find its natural level.
The real-world cost of 122 BDT
It’s easy to look at a ticker on a screen and think it’s just a number. It isn't. When the current USD to BDT exchange rate climbs, everything in a local shop in Chittagong or Sylhet eventually gets more expensive. Bangladesh is a huge importer of fuel and raw materials.
If a factory owner has to pay 2% more for the dollars they need to buy fabric or chemicals, they’re not just going to eat that cost. They're going to pass it on to you.
A tale of two rates
There is always the "official" rate and the "kerb market" (the street rate). Usually, the gap between them is where the drama happens. In 2026, the central bank has actually done a decent job of narrowing that gap by buying up billions of dollars from the market to build reserves, which stood at roughly $33.18 billion (gross) at the end of 2025.
But for the average person, the "real" rate is whatever the bank actually gives you when you try to withdraw money or pay an international tuition fee. Right now, expect to pay a premium.
What to expect for the rest of 2026
Don't expect the Taka to suddenly get stronger and go back to 110. It’s just not in the cards. Most analysts, including those at the Policy Research Institute (PRI), are seeing a "new normal" of perpetual instability.
- Flexible is the new Fixed: The central bank is committed to a flexible regime. This means volatility is part of the package now.
- Investment Slowdown: Growth is a bit muted, projected at around 4.9%. People are hesitant to pump money in when the currency is shifting.
- The Graduation: Bangladesh is set to graduate from the "Least Developed Country" (LDC) category in November 2026. This is a huge milestone, but it also means losing some trade preferences, which might put even more pressure on the exchange rate.
Actionable steps for managing your money
If you're an expat or a business owner, stop waiting for the "perfect" day to trade. It doesn't exist.
- Use Formal Channels: Honestly, with the current incentives and the narrowed gap between the official and kerb rates, sending money via official banks is safer and often just as profitable when you factor in the 2.5% government incentive.
- Hedge Your Imports: If you're a business, talk to your bank about forward contracts. Locking in a rate of 123 now might feel bad, but it feels a lot better than paying 128 in six months if things get hairy.
- Watch the Reserves: The gross reserves (BPM-6) are the pulse of the Taka. If you see those start to dip below $20 billion again, expect the exchange rate to jump significantly.
The Taka is undergoing a "necessary reset," as some economists call it. It’s painful, and it makes your grocery bill go up, but it's the price of trying to build a more transparent financial system. Stay sharp, keep an eye on the monthly inflation reports, and don't get caught off guard by the next "crawl" in the peg.
Your Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the Bangladesh Bank's monthly Monetary Policy statements. These documents often signal when the next adjustment to the crawling peg mid-point is coming. If you are planning a large transaction, try to execute it in the middle of the month when liquidity tends to be slightly better than at the very end or beginning of the month.