It is early 2026, and if you feel like the political ground is shifting under your feet, you aren't alone. Honestly, looking at the current Trump Harris polls is enough to give anyone whiplash. We are officially in the "second year" slump of the second Trump administration, and the numbers are telling a story that looks a lot different than the 2024 election maps did.
Remember that "red wave" of sorts? The one where Donald Trump pulled in roughly 49.9% of the popular vote to Kamala Harris’s 48.4%? That narrow but decisive victory back in November 2024 felt like a permanent shift. Fast forward to today, and the honeymoon didn't just end—it hit a brick wall.
The Reality of the Approval Ratings
Let’s get into the weeds. As of mid-January 2026, President Trump’s approval rating is hovering at a pretty rough 36% to 43% depending on who you ask. Gallup has him at the lower end, while the AP-NORC poll suggests about 4 in 10 Americans still back him.
The "vibe shift" is real.
You've got a situation where 72% of people think the economy is "fair or poor." That is a massive number. It’s hard to maintain high favorability when people are staring at their grocery receipts and feeling like the "America First" tariffs are just a fancy word for a price hike. In fact, a recent Brookings report pointed out that 75% of Americans—including more than half of Republicans—think these tariffs are driving up prices.
What Happened to Kamala Harris?
You might think Harris would be fading into the background, but she’s stayed surprisingly relevant in the polling data. While she isn't the "incumbent" anymore, her favorability ratings have stabilized in a way that’s making Democrats very optimistic about the 2026 midterms.
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Back in late 2024, she was tied with Trump on "highly favorable" ratings at about 30% each. Now, she's basically the face of the opposition. As the Trump administration pushes through the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA), which made deep cuts to Medicaid and the ACA, Harris has become the focal point for the 61% of voters who are angry about rising health insurance premiums.
Why the Gen Z Vote is the Wildcard
This is where things get truly weird.
During the 2024 election, Trump actually did surprisingly well with younger voters. He nearly doubled his support among Black voters compared to 2020 and snagged about 42% of the Gen Z vote. It was a shocker.
But according to data analyst Harry Enten, that support has essentially evaporated.
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- The February 2025 Peak: Trump had a +10% net approval with Gen Z.
- The January 2026 Crash: He’s now at a -32% net approval.
That is a 42-point drop in less than a year. Why? It’s not just one thing. It’s the combination of the Venezuela intervention—which most young people weren't into—and the fact that the "economic boom" promised on Truth Social hasn't trickled down to the people trying to pay rent.
The Venezuelan Factor and Foreign Policy
Speaking of Venezuela, that’s been a massive polling anchor. Trump campaigned as a "peace president," but the invasion and ongoing occupation have split his base. While some old-school hawks are cheering, a huge chunk of his populist supporters feel betrayed. They wanted "America First" to mean "America Only."
Polls from December 2025 showed that a majority of Americans were against military action in South America. Even though presidents usually get a "rally 'round the flag" boost, this one feels different. It’s weighing him down instead of lifting him up.
The 2026 Midterm Outlook
We are looking at a "lame duck" scenario faster than almost any president in modern history.
Current generic ballot polls—which ask if you'd vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress—show Democrats leading by 5 to 11 points among independents. If those current Trump Harris polls translate to the midterms this November, the GOP is looking at losing the House and potentially the Senate.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Polls
A lot of folks look at a 36% approval rating and think it’s over. It’s not.
Partisanship is a hell of a drug. 91% of Republicans still approve of the job Trump is doing. On the flip side, only 6% of Democrats do. That 85-point gap is the widest we've seen, and it means that the "middle" is almost nonexistent.
The people moving the needle are the independents. They've dropped 21 percentage points in their support over the last year. They don't care about the "rigged" rhetoric as much as they care about their 401(k)s and the cost of eggs.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Cycle
If you're trying to make sense of the noise, here's what actually matters:
- Watch the "Right Direction/Wrong Track" number. Currently, about 62% think the country is on the wrong track. Until that flips, the incumbent party is in deep trouble.
- Ignore the national horse race for a bit. Focus on the "swing" demographics. If Trump continues to lose the 15-point margin he gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, the GOP's path to keeping the House is basically non-existent.
- Keep an eye on the healthcare data. If the 5 million people projected to lose insurance actually lose it by this summer, the polls will likely dip even further.
Basically, the "honeymoon" wasn't just short—it was non-existent. We’re headed into one of the most volatile midterm seasons in American history, and the current Trump Harris polls are the first real warning sign that the 2024 coalition is fraying at the edges.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should track the specific polling data coming out of swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin rather than national averages. National numbers tell you the mood, but state numbers tell you who wins. You can also monitor the RealClearPolling average for the "Generic Congressional Vote" to see if the Democratic lead continues to widen as the November elections approach.