If you’re checking the current stock price of facebook (now Meta Platforms, Inc.) right now, you’re looking at a number that tells a very confusing story. As of the market close on January 16, 2026, Meta’s stock (ticker: META) sits at $620.25.
It’s down a fraction of a percent from the previous close. Boring, right? Wrong.
Behind that $620 price tag is a massive tug-of-war between Wall Street's fear of Mark Zuckerberg’s spending habits and the reality that his "money machine" is actually working better than ever. While the stock has basically been flat for the last week, it’s actually down about 20% from its all-time high of $796.25 hit back in 2025.
The $100 Billion Elephant in the Room
So, why isn't the stock higher? Honestly, it’s the spending.
In late 2025, Meta’s CFO, Susan Li, dropped a bombshell: the company expects its capital expenditures—the money it spends on servers, data centers, and AI chips—to be "notably larger" in 2026 than in 2025. To put that in perspective, they already spent around $71 billion last year. Analysts like those at TD Cowen are now forecasting that Meta could spend upwards of **$125 billion** this year alone.
That is an insane amount of money.
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Most people see that number and panic. They think of the "metaverse" money pit and Reality Labs, which is still losing billions every quarter (it lost about $4.43 billion in Q3 2025 alone). But here is what most people get wrong: the majority of that $125 billion isn't going toward VR headsets. It's going toward the AI "compute" that powers the ads you see on Instagram and Facebook.
The Ad Machine is Scarily Efficient
Despite the spending spree, the core business is a beast.
- Revenue Growth: In the most recent reported quarter, revenue jumped 26% to over $51 billion.
- Ad Prices: The average price per ad increased by 10%.
- Instagram Reels: It's now a $50 billion annual business.
- User Engagement: People are spending 30% more time on Instagram than they were a year ago.
Basically, Zuckerberg is using AI to make sure you never want to put your phone down, and then using that same AI to make sure the ads you see are things you actually want to buy. It's working. Their "Advantage+" automated ad tools are already generating $60 billion in annual recurring revenue.
Is the Current Stock Price a Bargain or a Trap?
If you look at the P/E ratio, Meta is trading at about 21 to 27 times earnings, depending on whose 2026 estimates you believe. For a "Magnificent Seven" tech giant growing revenue at 20%+, that’s actually kinda cheap.
The market is "punishing" Meta because it's the first big tech company to admit it's going to spend almost all of its operating cash flow on AI infrastructure. But as analysts from The Motley Fool and Bernstein have pointed out, every other giant—Amazon, Google, Microsoft—is going to have to do the same thing soon. Meta just got there first.
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Analyst Targets for 2026
Wall Street is surprisingly bullish despite the price dip. The median price target among 95 analysts is currently $805.98.
- The Bulls: Rosenblatt has a high target of $1,117, betting that Meta’s nuclear energy projects (like the 6.6 GW deal they announced in early January) will give them a massive cost advantage in running AI data centers.
- The Bears: Some pessimistic forecasts see the price dropping toward $424 if the AI spending doesn't lead to a clear "second act" for revenue beyond just ads.
What Really Happened with the Tax Bill?
You might have seen some headlines late last year about Meta’s net income "crashing." Don't let that fool you. In Q3 2025, their reported net income was only $2.7 billion, a massive drop.
But that was a one-time accounting thing. A $15.9 billion non-cash tax charge tied to new U.S. tax laws. If you strip that out, their "normalized" earnings per share was $7.25, which actually beat what Wall Street expected. The business itself didn't shrink; the accountants just had a very busy month.
Key Dates for Your Calendar
If you’re watching the current stock price of facebook, there are two big dates you need to circle in red:
- January 28, 2026: This is when Meta releases its full-year 2025 results. This will be the first time we get the "official" 2026 spending guidance. If that number is $130 billion+, expect some volatility.
- March 25, 2026: Meta is expected to pay its next quarterly dividend (likely around $0.53 per share). It’s still wild to think of Meta as a "dividend stock," but here we are.
How to Handle Meta Stock Right Now
Investing in Meta in 2026 requires a bit of a stomach for swings. The company is essentially betting the house on being the leader in "Open Source" AI with its Llama models and its "Meta AI" assistant, which already has over a billion users.
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The Actionable Reality:
If you believe AI is just a bubble, Meta is a dangerous place to be because they are the biggest spender in the room. But if you think AI is the next industrial revolution, you're looking at a company that owns the "rails" (Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook) and is building its own "engines" (AI infrastructure) to run on them.
What to do next:
- Check the Cash Flow: Don't just look at the stock price; look at the "Free Cash Flow" in the January 28 report. If they can keep that above $10 billion a quarter while spending $100 billion a year, the company is fine.
- Watch the "Meta AI" usage: If users start using Meta AI for search, that opens up a whole new revenue stream that could finally break their 98% dependence on social media ads.
- Mind the Gap: The gap between the current price ($620) and the average analyst target ($805) is nearly 30%. That’s a huge margin of error for a company this size.
Keep an eye on the January 28th earnings call transcript. That’s where Zuckerberg usually lets slip his most ambitious (and expensive) plans. Until then, the stock will likely stay in this "wait and see" pattern, hovering around that $620 mark as the market tries to decide if Zuck is a genius or just a really big spender.
To stay updated on Meta's next move, you should monitor the official Meta Investor Relations site for the Q4 earnings webcast. If you are looking for a deeper dive into the technicals, tracking the 50-day moving average (currently near $620) will tell you if the stock is establishing a firm floor or if further "tax-loss" selling might drag it lower.