The national average 30-year fixed current refinance mortgage rate is hovering at 6.64% as of January 16, 2026.
If you're staring at that number and feeling a bit deflated, you aren't alone. Most people expected rates to plummet by now. Instead, we’re seeing a tug-of-war between a stubborn Federal Reserve and a housing market that refuses to play by the old rules.
The Reality of the Current Refinance Mortgage Rate
Waiting for 3% is a pipe dream. Honestly, it’s probably a dangerous one. While the 15-year fixed refinance APR is looking a bit more attractive at 6.01%, the "Great Housing Reset" everyone talked about last year is moving at a snail's pace.
It’s weird. We’ve seen a weirdly specific dip recently—Bankrate's weekly survey actually showed 30-year rates hitting a three-year low of 6.18% just days ago—but that was largely a reaction to political noise. Specifically, President Trump’s recent directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities sent a temporary jolt through the bond market.
But here is the catch: one-off splashes of cash don't usually change the long-term trend.
Why the Fed Is Staying Put
J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, recently threw some cold water on the "rate cut" fire. He’s predicting the Fed will hold steady through the entirety of 2026. Why? Because unemployment dipped to 4.4% and inflation is still being a pest, staying north of 3%.
If the economy is too strong, the Fed has no reason to make borrowing cheaper.
What’s Happening With Different Loan Types
- 30-Year Fixed Refinance: Averaging around 6.58% at many major lenders.
- 15-Year Fixed Refinance: Sitting closer to 5.91%.
- 5/1 ARM Refinance: Hovering near 6.01%, though these are becoming less popular as the "spread" between fixed and adjustable rates narrows.
The "Math of the Move" vs. The Rate
A lot of homeowners who bought in 2024 or early 2025 are currently "stuck" with rates north of 7%. For those people, a current refinance mortgage rate in the low 6s looks like a godsend.
But you have to calculate the break-even.
If a refinance costs you $5,000 in closing fees and saves you $200 a month, you need to stay in that house for at least 25 months just to stop losing money. Most people forget to factor in that the clock on their 30-year loan resets. If you're five years into a 30-year mortgage and you refi into a new 30-year, you just added five years of interest payments to your life.
HELOCs Are Winning the Popularity Contest
Because roughly 70% of Americans are still sitting on "golden handcuffs"—mortgages with rates below 5%—they aren't touching their primary loan. Instead, they’re tapping into that massive pile of equity through Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs).
Redfin actually predicts that refinance volume will jump 30% this year, but a huge chunk of that is "cash-out" refis for people who absolutely need the money for renovations or debt consolidation, not just people chasing a lower monthly bill.
The Experts Aren't Always Right
Remember when everyone said rates would be 5% by Christmas 2025? It didn't happen.
Fannie Mae thinks we might see 5.9% by the end of 2026. The Mortgage Bankers Association is less optimistic, eyeing 6.4%. Wells Fargo is splitting the difference at 6.25%.
The truth is, nobody knows for sure. The 10-year Treasury yield is the real North Star here. If that stays above 4%, your mortgage isn't going anywhere fast.
🔗 Read more: How to Become an Enrolled Agent and Why the IRS Actually Trusts You
Actionable Steps for This Market
- Check your "Rate Gap": Unless the current refinance mortgage rate is at least 0.75% to 1% lower than your current note, the closing costs will likely eat your lunch.
- Look at the 15-Year: If you can swing the higher payment, the 15-year rates are finally dipping back into the 5s at some credit unions like Navy Federal or Star One.
- Run a Break-Even Analysis: Don't trust the lender's "savings" chart. Use a manual calculator to see exactly which month you actually start saving real dollars.
- Consider a "Rate-and-Term" vs. Cash-Out: If you just want a lower payment, stick to rate-and-term. Cash-out refis often come with a "pricing hit," meaning the bank charges you a slightly higher interest rate just for the privilege of taking your money out.
- Monitor the 10-Year Treasury: If you see the yield on the 10-year Treasury note drop significantly over a three-day period, that is your window to call your LO and lock.
Refinancing right now is a surgical move. It isn't the "refi-frenzy" of 2020. You have to be precise, know your numbers, and ignore the noise about "historically low" rates—because, compared to two years ago, these rates aren't low. But compared to last year? They might be the best deal you get for a while.