The Los Angeles Dodgers are making the rest of Major League Baseball look like they're playing a completely different sport. Honestly, it’s getting a little ridiculous. After securing back-to-back titles in 2024 and 2025, the blue-and-white juggernaut just spent the mid-January portion of the 2026 offseason effectively breaking the betting markets.
The big news? Kyle Tucker.
By signing the four-time All-Star outfielder to a massive four-year, $240 million deal, LA didn't just fill a gap in their roster. They basically sent a message to the other 29 teams that the "three-peat" isn't just a goal—it’s the expectation. If you're looking at current odds to win the World Series, you'll see a gap between the top spot and the rest of the field that we haven't seen in decades.
The Current Odds to Win the World Series: A lopsided Board
Usually, when the "way-too-early" odds drop in November, you see the favorites sitting somewhere around +600 or +700. Not this year. The Dodgers opened as favorites, but following the Tucker signing and the addition of elite closer Edwin Díaz, their price has plummeted.
At most major sportsbooks like FanDuel and BetMGM, the Dodgers are now hovering between +220 and +250.
To put that in perspective, that’s an implied probability of about 31%. In a sport as volatile as baseball, where a single bad pitching performance can end a season, having a nearly 1-in-3 chance to win the whole thing before Spring Training even starts is historic. You have to go back to the 2003 Yankees to find a preseason favorite this heavily backed by the oddsmakers.
Here is how the top of the board looks as of January 17, 2026:
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- Los Angeles Dodgers: +220
- New York Yankees: +1000
- Seattle Mariners: +1300
- Philadelphia Phillies: +1300
- Toronto Blue Jays: +1400
- Atlanta Braves: +1400
- New York Mets: +1800
- Boston Red Sox: +1600
You notice that jump? The Yankees are the second favorite, yet their odds are nearly five times longer than LA’s. It’s a "Dodgers vs. The Field" kind of year.
Why the Dodgers are Breaking the System
It isn't just about the names on the back of the jerseys, though having Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and now Kyle Tucker in the same lineup is basically a video game cheat code. It's the money.
The Dodgers' estimated 2026 payroll is sitting north of $413 million. When you factor in the luxury tax, they are projected to spend roughly $575 million this year. That is 1.5 times more than the New York Mets, who are the second-highest spenders. It’s more than the payrolls of the Athletics, Marlins, Guardians, Rays, and White Sox combined.
For bettors, this creates a dilemma. Do you take the "safe" bet at +220, or is there actually better value elsewhere?
Historically, the favorite in January rarely wins the trophy in October. Injuries happen. Bullpens collapse. But this roster is built with so much redundancy that even a major injury to a star might not be enough to derail them. They are buying the "ceiling" while everyone else is just trying to protect their "floor."
The American League Contenders: Who Can Actually Challenge?
The New York Yankees remain the primary threat from the AL, sitting at +1000. They’re always a trendy pick, but there are real questions about the depth of that lineup. If Aaron Judge doesn't have a historic postseason—something he’s struggled with in the past—can the rest of the Bronx Bombers carry the load?
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Then you have the Seattle Mariners at +1300.
Seattle is a fascinating case. They won the AL West in 2025 and pushed all the way to the ALCS before losing to Toronto. Their pitching is elite. If you believe that "good pitching beats good hitting" in the playoffs, the Mariners are your best bet. However, their offseason has been quiet. While LA is out here signing $240 million contracts, Seattle has been making "depth plays" and minor league signings.
The Toronto Blue Jays (+1400) are the defending American League champions. They pushed the Dodgers to seven games in the 2025 World Series before ultimately falling short. They lost Bo Bichette to the Mets this week—a three-year, $126 million deal that moved the needle in Queens—but the Jays still have a formidable core and the return of a healthy Shane Bieber to look forward to.
Identifying Value in the Longshots
If you aren't interested in laying money on a heavy favorite, the middle of the pack has some interesting stories.
The New York Mets (+1800) just got a major boost by signing Bo Bichette. Adding him to a roster that already features Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto makes them a nightmare for opposing pitchers. They missed the playoffs entirely in 2025, but Steve Cohen’s checkbook ensures they are never out of the conversation for long.
The Boston Red Sox (+1600) are a "speculative buy." Some experts, like those over at FTN Fantasy, suggested they could be worth a look if they land one more big arm before Opening Day. They have the talent to get into the dance, and as we saw with the Diamondbacks a few years ago, once you're in, anything can happen.
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Down at the bottom? It's bleak.
The Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, and Chicago White Sox are all sitting at +50000. That’s a 500-to-1 shot. Basically, the oddsmakers are saying there is no world where these teams lift the trophy in 2026.
What Most People Get Wrong About MLB Futures
A lot of casual fans think the best time to bet on current odds to win the World Series is right now, in the heart of winter.
That’s not always true.
The "Kyle Tucker Tax" has already been applied to the Dodgers. You are paying a premium for them because of the hype. Conversely, if a team like the Atlanta Braves (+1400) starts the season 15-5, those odds will evaporate instantly.
The real value often lies in the teams with "weirdness" surrounding them. Look at the Philadelphia Phillies (+1300). There’s been some strange energy around Bryce Harper this offseason, and Kyle Schwarber is hitting free agency. If those situations resolve positively, +1300 is going to look like a steal by June.
Actionable Next Steps for Following the Market:
- Monitor the "Bichette Effect": Watch how the New York Mets' odds fluctuate over the next two weeks. If they continue to slide toward +1500, the value is gone. If they stay near +2000, they are a solid "buy" for a bounce-back year.
- Track the Pitching Health: In late February, keep an eye on the Mariners' and Blue Jays' rotations. If Shane Bieber or Luis Castillo show any signs of fatigue in early bullpens, those AL odds will shift dramatically.
- Check Multiple Books: There is currently a wide variance between FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings. For example, some shops have the Braves as high as +2000, while others have them at +1400. Shop around for that extra cushion.
- Wait for the "Injury Dip": If you want to bet on the Dodgers, wait for a minor injury to hit. A two-week stint on the IL for a starter could move their odds from +220 to +275, giving you a much better return on the same outcome.