It is early 2026, and the dust has finally settled on one of the most chaotic political cycles in the history of the Five Boroughs. If you’ve been following the current nyc mayoral polls or the headlines over the last year, you know that the political map of New York City looks nothing like it did eighteen months ago.
Zohran Mamdani is now the Mayor of New York City. He was sworn in on January 1, 2026.
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Honestly, the "experts" were mostly wrong until the very end. Early on, the narrative was all about Eric Adams’ legal troubles and Andrew Cuomo’s potential comeback. People treated Mamdani—a Democratic Socialist—as a fringe candidate. But the polls told a story of a massive shift in voter sentiment that the establishment simply didn't see coming until it hit them like a subway train.
How the Polls Missed the Mamdani Surge
Early in 2025, Andrew Cuomo was the clear frontrunner. Data from Emerson College and Quinnipiac consistently showed him leading the Democratic pack by double digits. At that point, Mamdani was barely registering at 1% or 2%.
Then everything flipped. By May 2025, Mamdani had surged to 23%, and by June, he pulled off a massive upset in the Democratic primary. Cuomo didn't take the hint, though. He launched an independent campaign, which set up a three-way general election battle between Mamdani, Cuomo (the Independent), and Curtis Sliwa (the Republican).
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The Numbers That Defined the General Election
By October 2025, the current nyc mayoral polls showed a race that was Mamdani’s to lose. Quinnipiac University released a poll on October 27, 2025, that put Mamdani at 43%, Cuomo at 33%, and Sliwa at 14%.
Even with a former Governor and a well-known Republican in the mix, the progressive base held firm. What was really interesting was the "enthusiasm gap." A Fox News poll conducted in mid-October found that 75% of Mamdani supporters were "extremely or very enthusiastic" about voting. Compare that to Cuomo's 43%. People weren't just voting for Mamdani; they were excited about it. Cuomo's voters, on the other hand, often told pollsters they were just voting against the other guys.
The Turning Points
- The Adams Exit: In September 2025, Eric Adams officially withdrew from the race. Polls showed Cuomo picked up most of Adams’ centrist support, but it wasn't enough to bridge the gap.
- The Youth Vote: In the final Emerson College poll, Mamdani held a staggering 69% of voters under 50.
- The Independent Spoiler: Gotham Polling found that if Sliwa had dropped out, the race between Mamdani and Cuomo would have been a statistical tie (44.6% to 40.7%). But Sliwa stayed in, splitting the anti-Mamdani vote.
Why the Data Stayed Consistent
Despite the drama, the top issues in the polls never really shifted. New Yorkers were worried about the same three things: crime, cost of living, and affordable housing.
Mamdani’s platform on housing affordability struck a chord. In a September Quinnipiac poll, 71% of voters who cited affordable housing as their top issue backed Mamdani. Cuomo tried to lean into the "tough on crime" narrative, but by October, Mamdani had actually pulled ahead of him on that issue too, leading among crime-concerned voters by 5 points.
What Actually Happened on Election Day
The polls were remarkably accurate toward the end. On November 4, 2025, the city saw its highest turnout since 1993.
Mamdani finished with 50.78% of the popular vote. Cuomo brought in 41.32%, and Sliwa trailed at 7.01%. It was the first time since 1969 that a candidate received over a million votes. Mamdani didn't just win; he became the first Muslim and first South Asian mayor in the city’s history.
Actionable Insights for Following Future NYC Polls
Looking back at the current nyc mayoral polls from that cycle, there are a few things you should keep in mind for the next election.
First, watch the "favorability" ratings more than the head-to-head numbers. Throughout 2025, Mamdani was the only candidate with a net-positive favorability rating. Cuomo and Adams were consistently "underwater," meaning more people disliked them than liked them.
Second, don't ignore the undecided voters. In October 2025, nearly 10% of voters were still "unsure" in some polls. In a ranked-choice or multi-candidate field, those voters usually break toward the person they find the least offensive, not necessarily the one they love.
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Finally, check the "likely voter" vs "registered voter" samples. Mamdani’s lead was always 3 to 5 points higher among likely voters because his base was younger and more motivated to actually show up at the polls.
If you want to stay ahead of the curve for the next cycle, start by tracking the local borough-specific data. New York isn't a monolith; Mamdani won by dominating Brooklyn and Manhattan, while Cuomo took Staten Island. Understanding those geographic divides is the only way to make sense of the math before the ballots are even cast.
Next Steps for You:
If you're looking to dive deeper into how the 2025 results are impacting current policy, you should look up the latest City Council legislative calendar. Most of Mamdani's high-polling campaign promises, like universal childcare and expanded housing vouchers, are currently being debated in the 2026 budget sessions. Keep an eye on the "Rent Justice" caucus to see if the progressive surge in the polls is actually translating into law.