Wild Card weekend is officially in the rearview mirror, and if your heart rate hasn't settled down yet, you're probably a Chicago or Los Angeles fan. Seriously. That Bears-Packers game alone was enough to age most of the Midwest by a decade. Now that the dust has settled and the "Monday Night Football" beatdown in Pittsburgh is over, the current NFL playoff bracket is finally set for the Divisional Round.
We saw three road teams steal wins this past weekend. That's not supposed to happen, right? The "home field advantage" narrative took a massive hit, especially with the 49ers walking into Philly and taking care of business. Honestly, the way the seeds are shaking out right now, being the "favorite" feels like a curse.
Breaking Down the AFC: Can Anyone Stop Denver?
The Denver Broncos spent their weekend on the couch, watching the rest of the AFC tear each other apart. Must be nice. As the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, they earned that bye, but history tells us that rest can sometimes lead to rust. They’ll be hosting the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, January 17th.
The Bills are coming off a gritty 27-24 win against Jacksonville. Josh Allen looked like a man possessed in the second half of that game. Buffalo is currently a 1.5-point favorite in some circles despite traveling to the altitude of Empower Field at Mile High. That says a lot about how people feel about the Broncos' offense vs. the Bills' momentum.
Then you've got the Sunday matchup. The Houston Texans absolutely dismantled the Steelers 30-6. It wasn't even close. They have to travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots, who squeezed the life out of the Chargers in a 16-3 defensive masterclass.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Buffalo Bills (6) at Denver Broncos (1) – 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Sunday, Jan 18: Houston Texans (5) at New England Patriots (2) – 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Basically, the AFC is a collision course of elite defenses. The Texans' unit is playing on another planet right now, but going into Gillette Stadium in January is a different beast entirely.
👉 See also: Dodgers Black Heritage Night 2025: Why It Matters More Than the Jersey
The NFC Side: Chaos in the North and West
The NFC side of the current NFL playoff bracket feels like a heavyweight boxing match where everyone is already bleeding. Seattle, the No. 1 seed, is waiting for the San Francisco 49ers. These two teams know each other's favorite colors at this point. They split their regular-season meetings, and now they meet for the rubber match on Saturday night at Lumen Field.
The 49ers' 23-19 win over the Eagles was a statement. Brock Purdy didn't put up 400 yards, but he made the throws that mattered when the Linc got loud.
On the other side, we have the "Stafford vs. the Kid" storyline. The Los Angeles Rams survived a 34-31 shootout against a Carolina Panthers team that honestly played much better than their sub-.500 record suggested. Now, the Rams head to Soldier Field. The Chicago Bears are riding high after beating Green Bay 31-27, a game that Caleb Williams basically won with his legs in the fourth quarter.
Chicago is hosting a divisional-round game for the first time in 15 years. The city is going to be vibrating.
- Saturday, Jan 17: San Francisco 49ers (6) at Seattle Seahawks (1) – 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Sunday, Jan 18: Los Angeles Rams (5) at Chicago Bears (2) – 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
What the "Experts" are Missing
People keep talking about seeding like it’s the end-all-be-all. It isn't. The No. 6 seeds in both conferences (Bills and 49ers) moved on. The No. 5 seeds (Texans and Rams) also moved on. That means four of the six Wild Card games were won by the lower seed.
✨ Don't miss: College Football Top 10: What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Rankings
If you're looking at the current NFL playoff bracket and assuming Denver and Seattle have a clear path to the Super Bowl just because they had a week off, you haven't been watching this season. The parity is at an all-time high.
Take the Texans, for example. Most analysts wrote them off because of their youth. But their defense just held a professional NFL team to 6 points in a playoff game. That travels. Whether you're in Pittsburgh or New England, a pass rush like that doesn't care about the zip code.
The Quarterback Factor
We're seeing a fascinating mix of the "Old Guard" and the "New Wave."
- Matthew Stafford: Still slinging it at a high level. He’s the grizzled vet in this NFC bracket.
- Caleb Williams: The rookie hype is real, and he's actually living up to it under the brightest lights.
- Josh Allen: He’s at that "do it all myself" stage of his career which is both terrifying and brilliant.
- The New England Situation: They advanced with a rookie quarterback at the helm, which is nearly unheard of for a No. 2 seed.
Mapping the Road to Super Bowl LX
If you're planning your life around the games (as you should), the timeline is tight. After this weekend, we move to Championship Sunday on January 25th. The AFC title game kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS, followed by the NFC at 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX.
Everything leads to Santa Clara on February 8th. Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium.
🔗 Read more: Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Matches: Why This Interleague Rivalry Hits Different
Right now, the "smart money" is starting to lean toward a Rams-Broncos or a Rams-Texans matchup, but honestly? After seeing the way the 49ers defense bullied Philadelphia, I wouldn't bet against a Bay Area team playing a "home" Super Bowl in February.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you're tracking the current NFL playoff bracket for betting or just for bragging rights in the office pool, keep these three things in mind:
- Monitor the Injuries in Seattle: The Seahawks are rested, but they had a few key offensive linemen limping through Week 18. Against the Niners' front four, that's the whole game.
- The Altitude Factor: Buffalo is a "heavy" team—they rely on a physical run game. Playing in Denver's thin air in the second half is a massive hurdle for big-bodied teams.
- Watch the Weather in Chicago: Sunday night at Soldier Field. It’s looking like it might be one of those "frozen tundra" nights. Stafford is a dome/warm-weather guy historically; how he handles a 15-degree wind chill will decide that game.
The bracket is narrow, the stakes are massive, and the margin for error is basically zero. Make sure your Saturday and Sunday are cleared, because this is the best weekend of the football calendar, hands down.
Next Steps for Fans: Check the final injury reports on Friday afternoon before locking in any bracket predictions, specifically focusing on the Seattle offensive line and the Rams' secondary health. Ensure you have the proper streaming apps (Paramount+, Peacock, and ESPN+) ready to go, as the games are spread across four different networks this weekend.